Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hobart Bay, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Wednesday night/...

Key messages: -The breaks in the showers will continue through Wednesday morning. But as the next front approaches, rain will move in for most of the panhandle by Wednesday evening.
-Wind speeds will slowly increase as the next front moves in, but strongest winds will be along the coast and in the far southern panhandle.
-Above normal overnight low temps, below normal afternoon high temps.

Details: Surface ridging has kept showers lingering around the area. This pattern will continue into tomorrow with most of any leftover showers in the northern half of Southeast Alaska. So try to enjoy the breaks from the rain as much as you can because the next gale force front will bring another round of moderate to heavy rain to the panhandle beginning late tomorrow and lasting into Thursday.

Wind gust speeds have been upwards of 45 mph in Skagway but these speeds should be on the decrease this evening. Elsewhere, winds will remain steady through tonight but will increase a little, maybe 5 to 10 mph, late Wednesday into Wednesday night as the next front approaches. Biggest impacts from this front will be felt in the marine areas.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Tuesday/ Unsettled weather conditions expected due to multiple low pressure systems and moist onshore flow from the Gulf. SE AK weather for the long range will be cool and wet. Aloft, a broad upper low is in place across the Bering for the middle to end of the week then pivoting to the Gulf by next weekend and next Monday. Brief periods of ridging tracking however no foreseeable long or substantial breaks in the next week, and from CPC outlook likely the next two weeks. Periods of rain last into the weekend as the parent low reaches the Central AK Gulf but rates and overall coverage diminish. Yet another gale force low with heavy rain tacks in for the end of the weekend and the start of next week.
More moderate to heavy rain depicted by EFI tables. Likely more days of 24 hour rain accumulations of an inch to 2 inches with near records amounts for this time of year. Ensembles and operational models are still in fair agreement and any differences not enough to alter previous forecast.

AVIATION
/Through 06Z Thursday/ Flying conditions for tonight are a mix of VFR and MVFR as showers continue to move through the panhandle. Most of the MVFR conditions for tonight are due to cloud ceilings falling just below 3000 ft as showers move through, with the exception of Yakutat which has been seeing some ceilings down to 1000 ft. Conditions around Yakutat will likely see some drops from MVFR to IFR as the next frontal system moves into the northern Gulf, with indications of ceilings of under 800 ft and visibilities of around 4 SM around Yakutat airport. As the front moves into the rest of the panhandle tomorrow night, right around the end of the TAF period (06Z tomorrow), the biggest concern will be LLWS for the outer coast and the southern panhandle.

Tonight the northern panhandle will continue to see some increased winds, with Yakutat beginning to see some higher gusts around 16Z as the front moves in. For Skagway the gusty winds of 25 to 30 kts will begin to decrease into tomorrow afternoon near the end of the TAF period.



MARINE...
Outside: Southerly winds will slowly increase tonight into tomorrow as the next gale force front moves in from the west. By Wednesday afternoon, wind speeds along the coast will be up to 30 to 35 knots. Wave heights will increase along the front, upwards of 10 feet by late tonight with up to 15 to 17 feet by Wednesday afternoon along the coast. These higher winds and waves along the coast will last into Wednesday night.

Inside: General southerly winds are starting off around 10 to 20 knots around the panhandle, little stronger in Lynn Canal. Going forward, the area will start to see more 15 to 20 knots as the next front approaches. And by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, wind speeds will be up to 25 knots for the southern panhandle. with 15 to 20 knots averaging elsewhere. The exception looks to be Lynn Canal, where wind speeds may actually decrease to 5 to 10 knots or less for Wednesday night.

Looking further, southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots return to the inner channels by Thursday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-663-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-035-036-053-641>644-661-662.