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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 249 Am Akst Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. Rain showers late.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
Sat..SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 071339 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 439 AM AKST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
Our stalled low in the gulf will continue to diminish Thursday with winds decreasing across the region. While no lightning has been observed overnight, there is still a slight risk along the coast for a thunderstorm or two into the afternoon. Thursday night, a quick moving shortwave trough will swing in a cold front across the north, expecting snow levels to drop to sea level in the far north and hold near 1000ft in the south. The current forecast highlights snow impacts remaining in the passes of Skagway and Haines; however, if guidance continues to trend towards the NAM3km solution, we could see more impactful snow move further south into Icy Strait by Friday morning.

LONG TERM
/Friday through Sunday/...Friday sees a small troughing feature along the NE gulf coast move southeastward generating 25-30 knot winds in the inner channels and a rain snow mix for the northern panhandle. At this time, limited snow accumulations along the Haines and Klondike Highway Guidance is slowly converging on a possible solution for a fast developing, strong low pushing up from the south. Unfortunately, at this time, there are still positional issues for the low that have drastic implications on how impactful this system will be. Two scenarios continue to appear to be becoming clear, backed up by ensemble and deterministic models. Both these scenarios are similar to yesterday, now with the NAM following the GFS.

On one hand is the deterministic GFS and NAM, with good run consistency between the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS and 12z NAM, where the low system passes just north of Haida Gwaii and pushes eastward into Canada, bypassing the panhandle entirely. Under this scenario, stronger northerly outflow winds will kick up across the north bringing colder temperatures and possibly some clearing skies.
The southern panhandle will experience some stronger, yet brief, rainfall rates. Petersburg and northward will also experience some snowfall, but largely cut short from the lack of moisture working its way northward. Some ensemble members also support this notion of low position and track, but so far, it is the unlikely scenario.

The far more likely scenario, supported with ensemble means in the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS along with good run to run consistency of the 0z and 12z EC, is a developing low moving directly north of the Sitka area, then inland into the Yukon. Under this scenario, there is an increasing likelihood of stronger winds, up to storm force, for the entire panhandle, inside waters, and near shore waters up to cross sound. Furthermore, as the low passes into the Yukon, a strong punch of southerly winds up the north south facing channels will likely follow its exit from the panhandle. Additionally, more moisture will be able to work its way northward into colder air. At this time, temperatures look to warm significantly, limiting the amount of snowfall for the northern half of the panhandle. Similarly wide ranges can be said about temperatures as well, as if this scenario plays out, a strong southerly push will likely transition any falling snow to rain. As this scenario seemed the most likely, this forecast was included.

AVIATION
/Through Thursday night/...MVFR conditions due to low CIGs will once again dominate Southeast Alaska for the next 24 hours. Atmosphere continues to be convective and there is the possibility of isolated thunderstorm activity once again today, though no lightning was detected overnight. The freezing level remains fairly low - between 2000 and 3000 ft - which is also where most aviation models are depicting CIGs as well. Thus, if you are remaining below the clouds today, you should not see a lot of airframe icing. But be aware that the freezing level will get lower as the next front approaches on Friday. LLWS becomes an issue once again by Friday mid morning because of this front and will be worst over the northern two thirds of the Panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.

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Cleveland Passage
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Thu -- 01:41 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:22 AM AKST     4.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:47 AM AKST     13.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:12 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:22 PM AKST     4.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:24 PM AKST     11.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Houghton
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Thu -- 01:40 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:02 AM AKST     4.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:27 AM AKST     13.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:02 PM AKST     4.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:04 PM AKST     11.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Houghton, Robert Islands, Stephens Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

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