Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:48AMSunset 4:31PM Saturday January 18, 2020 4:58 AM AKST (13:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:52AMMoonset 12:34PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 241 Am Akst Sat Jan 18 2020
Today..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Tonight through Sun..W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
Sun night..W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Mon through Tue..NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Wed..E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, AK
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location: 57.44, -177.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 181311 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 411 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large upper level high centered over the Canadian Arctic is being displaced eastward by an equally large low tracking near Sand Point. This is leading to scattered rain and/or snow showers across much of the Bering/Aleutians. Winds aloft are advecting an area of moisture associated with a ~980 mb surface low in the Gulf northward towards Kodiak Island. Easterly winds at the surface are subsequently causing snow squalls to develop there, which will generally continue through the day. The most intense bands are expected to occur this morning. As such, a Winter Storm Warning is currently in effect. Mostly clear skies and calm winds encompass much of Southcentral Alaska with the exception of the usual gusty northeasterly outflow winds in the Chugach terrain gaps.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good agreement for the short term. Agreement begins to deteriorate on Sunday, particularly with the position of a low tracking into the Gulf and thus confidence is low after around 24 hours. That said, snow does appear likely along Prince William Sound Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The upper level flow will become more southerly through Sunday night as the upper high over northern Alaska retreats eastward. This will bring increasing clouds to the southern mainland beginning Sunday, with precipitation reaching the Gulf coast. Some snow is possible over the western Kenai and over the eastern Copper River basin Sunday night.

For Kodiak Island today, expect considerable precipitation as a strong inverted trough moves across the area from the Gulf. This precipitation will fall mainly as snow, though some rain could be mixed in at times with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s. Up to a foot of snow is possible over the northern portion of the Island, and considerable winds will create reduced visibilities in blowing snow as well.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The potential for snow showers will increase this morning as easterly upper level waves push into Southwest Alaska over Shelikof Strait towards the Alaska Range and Alaska Peninsula. Through the afternoon, these waves will likely bring snow showers west of King Salmon to coastal sites, including Dillingham and Pilot Point as a deformation band sets up through the overnight hours. There is still some uncertainty as to where the band of snow showers will set up, but snow accumualtions should be minimal through the duration. By Sunday, snow showers will begin to taper off. Increased cloud cover extending across Southwest Alaska should help to keep temperatures moderate over the next few days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A front over the central Bering will continue to weaken through Sunday, which will keep scattered snow showers in the forecast for much of the Bering, Aleutians and the Pribilofs throughout the weekend. By Sunday morning, a weak low will enter the northern Bering, but there is still model uncertainty in where this low will track and how strong it will be. In any case, expect small craft advisory winds to be associated with this system, which will continue to be monitored for future forecast packages.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

The Gulf of Alaska continues to look fairly quiet into next week. Sunday into Monday a weak low pressure will create small craft advisory winds along the north Gulf Coast with a barrier jet there. Beyond that, weather calms. We are confident in this forecast for the Gulf.

For the Bering Sea, guidance now indicates a compact low now traversing the Central Bering northwest to southeast. This low is reflected in the forecast. Gale force winds are forecast on the backside of this low. High pressure and quieting weather are expected to move in behind it. There is moderate confidence in this forecast as the low was not previously depicted by model guidance. This means it will likely need to be adjusted in coming days as model guidance gets a better handle on it.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

The long term forecast starts with weak low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, which will likely be producing snow in the Chugach. Snowfall amounts and specific locations will be honed in the next couple of days. This system decays Tuesday and becomes a nominal factor in the weather. Out in the Bering, a compact low has been identified by model guidance. This low will cross the Bering Sea quickly and dissipate as it reaches the Southwest Coast on Wednesday.

High pressure then builds in behind general low pressure for our forecast area. A prominent upper level ridge looks to be oriented southeast to northwest across the Alaska Peninsula into the Bering. It will reflect as a surface high in the Bering Sea and likely usher in more cold air for Southcentral AK. Right now the Mat-Su is on the eastern (downstream and cold side) of the ridge, so more cold air can be expected, but it will really depend on where that border sets up and how much cloud cover we get. The Copper River Basin has a shot to get some really cold air again, as they will be on the eastern side of the ridge where cold air will be pulled south from the Arctic. Models are in agreement of the ridge setting up, but differ on placement slightly. So cold temperatures will depend on what resolves over the next several days. With this not occurring until late next week, there is time to get this figured out.


AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning: 171. MARINE . Storm Warning: 130. Gale Warning: 120 127 131 132 136-139. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 127 139 160 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . BB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46035 - BERING SEA 310 NM North of Adak, AK 41 mi68 min 33°F 38°F10 ft995.8 hPa (-1.1)

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.