Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Larsen Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday morning)...

A negatively tilted upper level trough is currently pulling remaining moisture over Southwest Alaska, allowing for lingering showers over the Bristol Bay region. A transient ridge moving in from the eastern Bering Sea will push the trough east and keep calm conditions in the area through Tuesday morning. Farther west, a warm front associated with a Kamchatka low will move into west/central Bering Sea this evening. Gale Force sustained winds are likely to move past the Rat Islands as the frontal system approaches this afternoon into tonight, but winds will weaken to below Gales as the front continues along the remainder of the Aleutians through early Tuesday.

As the front arrives in the Pribilof Islands on Monday, temperatures will initially be cold enough for precipitation moving in ahead of the boundary to fall as snow. A quick 1-3" of accumulation is expected prior to a transition to mainly rain late Monday evening as strong warm air advection pushes low level temperatures above freezing. Blowing snow and reduced visibility will be possible for a few hours as snow moves in, but this window will be very short-lived given quickly warming temperatures through Monday evening.

The front will weaken as it moves into Southwest, bringing another round of light snow to much of the region as it begins to move inland Tuesday night. The front's associated low elongates and blankets the southern Bering Sea with upper level shortwaves rotating through the primarily zonal flow. These reinforcing waves of upper level support will allow showers to persist over most of the outlook area through Wednesday. A belt of elevated southeasterly winds will move over the Aleutian Chain on Wednesday as a result of low position and shortwave troughing.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Days 4 through 7 look to be somewhat on the active side for mid- April with multiple systems bringing precipitation and cloud cover to the region. Broad upper-level troughing stretching from the Bering Sea to mainland Alaska will be in place to begin the period, placing the Aleutians and much of Southern Alaska in active quasi- southwest flow with embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on Thursday, precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid southwest flow.

Models begin to really diverge by/after Friday, but ECMWF/CMC solutions are in general agreement with a strong low moving into the Bering from the North Pacific, bringing storm-force winds, waves, and general unsettled weather to the Aleutian Chain by the end of the week and into the weekend.

While uncertainty in details is high, an upper-level low in place across mainland Alaska will continue to bring unsettled weather to Southcentral AK over the weekend into the start of next week.
Temperatures will generally be near average.

AVIATION

PANC...Isolated to scattered snow showers will linger into tonight with possible reductions in visibility if a shower moves through the terminal. Otherwise, expect ceilings to gradually rise overnight and showers to taper off. Models are hinting at some low ceilings and fog for Monday morning, but expect this to be tied more to north-northwesterly flow allowing for upslope along the Chugach mountains with any low clouds and fog near the terminal mixing out pretty quickly after sunrise.