Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Game Creek, AK

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM AKDT Sun Oct 11 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A front swinging through the region will bring gusty winds and moderate rain to the panhandle through tonight, especially across the northern half of the panhandle.

- Quieter weather for the first part of the work week with lighter rain showers possible.

- A larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf midweek and impact SEAK by late week.

SHORT TERM
/through Monday night/
A front pushing through northeast Gulf coast this morning will work into northern panhandle this afternoon and then into southern panhandle tonight. Rain ahead and along the front will slowly spread southeast across the panhandle, with rain rates decreasing as the front weakens as is works ashore. The frontal boundary will stall and weaken further on Monday across the southern panhandle with lighter rain continuing. Gusty southerly winds still expected for this afternoon/evening with the frontal passage, especially across the northern panhandle, although slightly weaker than previously thought. Gust 20 to 35 mph possible across north.
Lighter winds expected for Monday. Weak ridge of high pressure behind the front will nudge into central panhandle and some a bit of drier weather. Further north, onshore flow above the ridge will bring a continued chance of rain for the Icy Strait corridor on north and over to northeast Gulf coast. Some of this rain on the backside of the front could be convective showery in nature as colder temps aloft will bring some modest instability, but likely not enough for any lightning. Rain amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches over northeast Gulf coast, 0.5 to 1 inch for Icy Strait corridor, to 0.25 to 0.5 inches southern panhandle. With the drier, colder airmass in place ahead of the front, snow levels could initially be low enough over the northern highways (1.5-2.5kft) late tonight into Sunday morning for snow to mix in as the rain begins near White Pass and the upper reaches of the Haines Highway, but no accumulation expected. Any snow will quickly transition to all rain by late morning as snow levels quickly rebound. Cooler temps prevail with highs in mid 40 to low 50s.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Friday/
A weaker wave will move north from Haida Gwaii Tuesday and Wednesday, providing enough disturbance to generate scattered showers, mostly in the southern panhandle. The larger impacts may come as early as Thursday from a much deeper low. The latter low will intensify in the western Gulf, and will have ample to mature as it looks to be held out over the open waters of the Gulf by some Fujiwara Effect related to a smaller orbiting low which most guidance has combining together.

By Friday the extent of its influence will likely reach us here in SEAK. Exact timing still differs between deterministic guidance runs. One of the larger variables being how long the two lows orbit one another before joining and allowing the resultant low to track east. A later arrival will most likely result in a stronger system, but there is good confidence in strong gusty winds, especially over coastal waters, and widespread rainfall Friday heading into the weekend.

AVIATION...Conditions this morning remain mostly VFR although some MVFR conditions have been noted as the front continues to push into the panhandle and weaken. As the front continues into the panhandle, rain will continue to spread across the panhandle helping to bring down ceilings and horizontal visibility. These conditions should persist through the day before the front pushes through. Behind the front, rain showers will still be possible which will bring periods of heavier rain and stronger winds. Current thinking is there is a chance of weak LLWS but not enough to include in the TAFs.
Confidence is moderate for this with low to moderate confidence in the TAFs for this issuance period with regards to ceilings.

MARINE...
Outside waters: The front will transit the waters west to east today with a wide swath of S to SEly 25-35kt along the coastal waters. Gales are expected for Icy Cape to Cape Suckling this morning and over the Fairweather Grounds into the afternoon. Seas will build 10 to 14+ feet with the frontal passage. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds becoming gentle to moderate SWly and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft by Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Increasing winds and seas on Wednesday as a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and impacting the coastal waters by late week, with widespread gales and seas 15-20+ft likely.

Inside waters: South to southeasterly winds will become fresh to strong with the frontal passage, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for Frederick Sound on north. As the front shifts southeast Sunday night, winds will diminish across the northern channels, but southerlies will pick up and become fresh in Clarence Strait into Monday. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early to begin the work week with winds becoming light to gentle. Similarly to the gulf, increasing winds and seas are anticipated by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-053- 641>644-661>664-671.