Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Game Creek, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 171457 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 557 AM AKST Mon Feb 17 2025

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday Night/...The forecast is rather quiet. The remaining outflow diminished as pressure gradient between lower pressure in the Gulf and higher pressure in northern BC has slackened. This leaves most areas in the Inner Channels with 15 kt or less of wind. That low wind scenario will last through Monday night, at least. Meanwhile, cloud cover combined with overall flow turning more southerly and southwesterly by Monday night will cause a gradual warming trend. Many areas are expected to have highs above freezing Monday(mid 30s as far north as Haines and Skagway likely) while lows will still go below or near freezing at night. Little in the way of precipitation is expected through Monday night, though the NE Gulf Coast could see some light rain or snow, at times, with little in the way of accumulations expected.

LONG TERM
Through the remainder of the week, the Gulf of Alaska and Panhandle will be on the business end of a rather sizable Rossby wave, with several upper level disturbances and associated gale to severe-gale force surface lows steered into the region into the weekend. Simply put, much warmer, wetter, with wind for coastal locations. As this robust low takes residence across the Aleutian Chain, it will steer an Atmospheric River (AR)
into the western coast of Canada and Pacific Northwest by the end of the week, with the Panhandle on the northern side of the main moisture plume.

Speaking on moisture, Scripps CW3E data continues to show the GEFS, WRF, and EPS ensemble solutions in lockstep through Thursday before diverging due to low placement and subsequent steering winds. This will be critical to either a “non-AR” impacting the central and southern region or a weak AR. As heavier rainfall fills in across the region later Thursday, WRF 24-hour QPF suggests higher confidence for 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the southern region, with some outliers hinting 3 inches. Given the warm onshore flow, expecting all rain at sea level. This pattern is not conducive to improving our low-level snow pack, with Long Lake SNOTEL needing to make up 26 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE)
to reach normal before our mid-April water year peak.
Show more