Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Game Creek, AK

SHORT TERM
A couple changes to the ongoing short term forecast, but changes overall are minor and do not change the ongoing message: Wednesday morning is the break before the front moving in Wednesday night. Main changes are related to PoP, with the next upcoming frontal band to be slightly slower than anticipated, due to the current ridge over the panhandle being slightly more robust. Furthermore, run to run trends in deterministic CAMs show that the warm occlusion struggles to push past the coast mountains, meaning that a majority of the precipitation will be localized to the outer coast and southern panhandle. Now, this is not to say that only these locations will see rain, as the southeast to south orientation of the moisture flow aloft shows that even places in the northern panhandle will get accumulating precipitation. Rather, a bulk of the QPF will be directed at the southern panhandle and outer coast.


LONG TERM
By Thursday morning a respectable low will be enveloping the Gulf of Alaska, with southeasterly gale force winds expected. Mariners navigating our waters should use caution, especially in the vicinity of Prince of Wales and Southern Clarence. Here the long fetch from Dixon Entrance/Hecate Strait will drive fresh, short period seas of 8 to 10+ ft out of the south southeast. Winds reach their peak speed Thursday morning, diminishing later Thursday evening. Friday a broad Rossby wave will be organizing and moving south and east from the Bering Sea, serving as the parent system to a developing surface low ejecting into the Gulf of Alaska. Simultaneously a ridge will slide across the over the Panhandle into Saturday driving some drier weather and lighter winds for the evening and into Sunday. While not as energetic as Wednesday’s system, expecting some onshore flow and shower activity to return later Sunday/Monday as cyclogenesis occurs in the western gulf. Divergence in agreement between model guidance in position and depth of the associated surface low is resulting in a few different wind solutions for our coast, but buy-and-large expect south-southeast flow below gale force.

AVIATION
Aviation concerns grow through the day and overnight into Thursday morning as an approaching storm brings the threat of wind shear and lower CIGS/VSBY. We remain consistent on CIGS/VSBY diminishing to MVFR later Wednesday evening as moisture moves in, with the heaviest rainfall and worst conditions south of Frederick Sound and along the coast. Touching on LLWS, most of the Panhandle will experience bumpy conditions through Thursday but the main threat for LLWS remains in the southern Panhandle, with 30 to 40 knots of wind at or above 2,000ft. Expect peak winds Thursday morning to persist into the afternoon.

MARINE
Eastern Gulf of Alaska...Fairly quiet weather in the gulf during the morning hours today, with light air to light breezes throughout the eastern gulf. This will be the short transitionary period between the prior W flow, and the switch to SE later in the morning. SE winds will increase throughout the day, maximizing in the evening with near gale to gale force winds along the NE to E coastline. Highest wind speeds are along the NE gulf coast, with areas next cape Suckling exceeding 35 knots. Similar with waveheights, seas will build to between 10-16 ft with higher amounts near Cape Suckling, during roughly the same period of time as the front.

Inside waters...Light air in the inner waters with the exception of northern Lynn Canal, due to a tight but relaxing gradient in the northern panhandle. Expect deteriorating conditions beginning in the afternoon. Expect for wind speeds to pick up in Chatham Strait first, and expand eastward by the evening. As a mesoscale feature moves up from the south, wind speeds will increasingly become easterly in nature, with Peril Strait, Fredrick Sound, and Icy Strait being the highlights. One certainty with this forecast as how far the winds will extend into Stephens Passage, which will change depending on how far the additional mesoscale feature will move northward. Not expecting any sustained winds above a strong breeze, except out of ocean entrances

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-053-641>644-651-661>663.