Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kodiak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:59AMSunset 3:45PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 11:09 PM AKST (08:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ136 Chiniak Bay- 338 Pm Akst Tue Dec 10 2019
.gale warning tonight...
Tonight..E wind 30 kt becoming ne 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
Wed..E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
Wed night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
Thu..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat through Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kodiak, AK
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location: 57.78, -152.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 110154 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The low that affected southern Alaska yesterday is located near the Bering Strait this afternoon and another low can be seen well south of the Gulf of Alaska. Therefore, most of southern Alaska is under weak high pressure between these systems.

A large upper level low is centered over the Bering Sea and has a trough that extends over the AK Peninsula and then south of the Gulf of AK. The Upper level ridge is over the northern AlCan border to British Columbia. This pattern is keeping Southern Alaska under Southeasterly flow aloft, though not as strong as it was yesterday. The jet stream is mainly running west-to-east along the 35N to 40N parallels. However, it does not look like it will amplify much over the next few days which will limit the amount of strengthening and northward movement of the low referenced earlier that is south of the Gulf of Alaska today.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement through the week. While small differences in track and timing can be pointed out, they should not have significant impact on the forecast and large scale changes to the forecast are not anticipated.

AVIATION. PANC . Fog and stratus will be the challenges for the PANC TAF overnight. While fog developed late this morning, it is very shallow and mostly localized to the Anchorage area. Conditions could worsen after sunset. However, there will be an increase in low level flow overnight, which looks like just enough to limit fog potential. Thus, believe conditions will generally improve after this evening. If it turns out flow is not strong enough, shallow fog could linger longer than advertised in the TAF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday night through Thursday) .

Weather is calming down with exit of the low pressure system last night. However, the break will be brief as the overall weather pattern of broad low pressure over the state will send another low north into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. This low will approach the coast Wednesday morning, providing another round of rain and wind for Southcentral AK. However, it will be substantially weaker than the previous low and will not work as far inland. This means winds won't be as strong and it will be limited to just coastal areas, with more inland locations (like the Mat-Su) not receiving any precipitation at all. This low is already evident on satellite tracking north in the Pacific, so the forecast looks to be on track. There is also good model agreement with this low, so we are confident in the forecast.

Another area of emphasis today is the clearing weather that will allow inland temperatures to fall, especially for the Copper River Basin. Northerly winds and cold air advection will aid temperature decrease. Therefore, dropped temperatures in the forecast today with teens overnight in the Copper River Basin and cooling to single digits for lows by Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper level disturbance is dropping some scattered showers on parts of Southwest Alaska this afternoon. This feature comes ahead of a north Pacific low that enters the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday night. A generous amount of warm air advects in with this system and will kick off as rain over southwest Alaska, with snow expected over the Kuskokwim River Valley. The return of cold air at the surface from northeast winds will create the possibility for some light snow and freezing rain on Wednesday in the Kuskokwim Delta. Precipitation will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as the low pulls away in the Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Low pressure tracked out of the northern Bering into Siberia and left a wide band of west/northwest winds west of the Pribilof Islands. Satellite imagery shows a broad area of scattered showers in the western Bering. This showery regime should continue through Thursday west of the Pribilofs. A strong low is expected to approach the Western Aleutians on Thursday evening. A north Pacific low will approach the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday morning and will bring rain to the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians on Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will move from the north Pacific on Friday to near Atka by Saturday morning. This feature will send a frontal boundary into the south central Bering Sea during Saturday morning, with the low bottoming out near 960 mb. Some sustained gales will likely accompany these features, with gusts just short of storm force likely, especially out of bays and passes. This system then moves off to the east southeast by Sunday afternoon.

Given a long fetch length, look for seas to build into the 20 to 25 feet range south of the Aleutian chain during the forecast period. For the remainder of the region, winds look to remain below gales with seas less than 15 feet expected.

. Gulf of Alaska .

An area of low pressure will move into the southwestern Gulf by Friday morning, with sustained gales developing for the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast . eastward towards the Copper River Delta. Sustained gales are also likely across the southern Gulf. This low then slowly reaches Kodiak Island Saturday while weakening, before moving into southwest Alaska on Sunday while dissipating. As a result, winds area wide will decrease for to small craft criteria near the coast on Saturday, and remain below headlines for Sunday.

As for your waves, the look to be highest across the eastern half of the outer waters, where they'll peak in the 20 to 25 feet range Friday, dropping further for the weekend.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have come into better, though not perfect agreement for the long term. Expect a continued active pattern over the Aleutians through the end of the weekend, while quieter weather will persist over Southcentral. Friday, a low in the western Gulf of AK will continue to swing a series of weak fronts toward the North Gulf Coast, bringing periods of precipitation through the end of the weekend. Precipitation will be concentrated on southeast facing slopes, particularly on Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska/Aleutian Range. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Yukon and interior AK will strengthen, and conditions will trend colder over inland areas of the Southern Mainland. Out west, a strong low south of the central Aleutians will swing an occluded front across the chain and generate a healthy round of precipitation over the Aleutians and likely into the Southwest Mainland Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances look highest in the Bristol Bay area, with the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta likely staying drier in offshore flow. However, it's hard to have much certainty this far out and with run-to-run model inconsistencies. Another low will approach the western Aleutians Monday, bringing another round of precipitation and active weather.

In short, expect temperatures to trend colder through the long term, especially for interior areas. With each system, precipitation will progress from the Aleutians toward Southcentral.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . LB MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 5 mi58 min NE 14 G 20 43°F 43°F989.6 hPa
46264 44 mi40 min 44°F14 ft
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 82 mi40 min ENE 28 G 34 43°F 993.4 hPa42°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 93 mi80 min NNE 23 G 27 43°F 43°F4 ft988.5 hPa (-2.0)41°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK4 mi17 minNE 23 G 309.00 miOvercast and Windy44°F39°F83%989.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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E16E12E7SE8CalmCalmCalmCalmNE12E9NE10E17E18
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Tide / Current Tables for Kodiak, Port of Kodiak, Alaska
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Kodiak
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:25 AM AKST     7.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM AKST     2.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:01 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:47 PM AKST     10.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:22 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:26 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:37 PM AKST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM AKST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.67.37.26.55.23.92.92.83.54.96.78.59.810.19.47.75.42.90.7-0.6-0.70.11.83.8

Tide / Current Tables for Kodiak, Women's Bay, Alaska
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Kodiak
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:28 AM AKST     7.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM AKST     2.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:01 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM AKST     10.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:22 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:27 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:39 PM AKST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM AKST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.57.37.36.55.33.92.92.83.44.86.68.59.810.19.47.85.530.8-0.6-0.70.11.73.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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