Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kodiak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 8:59PM Sunday April 5, 2020 11:09 AM AKDT (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 5:26AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ136 Chiniak Bay- 406 Am Akdt Sun Apr 5 2020
.small craft advisory through Monday...
Today..W wind increasing to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
Tonight..W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kodiak, AK
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location: 57.78, -152.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 051328 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 528 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The resident upper level ridge that's been with us for several days extends from northeast Alaska back to Kodiak Island. The strong frontal boundary from a Bering Strait low is bringing 50 knot winds to the Kuskokwim Delta coast and 30+ knots to the lower Kuskokwim Valley along with some light snow and rain. Gusty winds have subsided some in Bristol Bay, but winds are still 20 to 30 knots in most locations. The strong push of long fetch southwesterlies is pushing moisture over this ridge with clouds all the way to the Copper River Basin. Some rain, snow, and fog has seen its way into the Susitna Valley as well. Cold air is streaming into the western Bering behind the front as witnessed on satellite in the stratocumulus field.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

As the low moves ashore in northwest Alaska and its frontal passage in southwest Alaska completes, the priority turns to the developing low in the western Bering on Sunday night. General agreement lies in it crossing the Alaska Peninsula somewhere between Cold Bay and Bristol Bay Tuesday morning, from there the spin-up of another low is being advertised in the western Gulf and will command attention for its impact to Kodiak Island and any potential beyond on the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. Out in the western Bering it looks to be shaping up for an active pattern on Tuesday, where again model agreements are nowhere to be found at this point as we are seeing a bigger pattern shift taking place.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds will persist through the day at terminal.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Tuesday) . A short-wave ridge overhead of Southcentral will quickly exit eastward this morning as a deep and cold low along the west coast of Alaska pushes onshore. While the low will remain over northern Alaska, a series of short-waves will cross Southcentral today through tonight. At the same time, a surface cold front will speed across Southcentral bringing unusually frigid air for this time of year. 850 temperatures will drop from roughly -2 degrees C this morning to -18 degrees C Monday morning. The biggest impact will be widespread strong and gusty winds for portions of Southcentral and the Gulf. As is typical with cold air moving in from the west, the strongest winds will be over the western Gulf and Kodiak Island. However, with low pressure to the north, some of these winds will bend up Cook Inlet and make it all the way to the Susitna Valley today.

The combination of the upper short-waves and persistent strong west to southwest low level flow will lead to snow showers along the southern to western slopes of mountains. Expect some showers over the Susitna Valley and Copper River Valley as well, but with little or no accumulation.

Despite the strong cold air advection, clouds and winds will keep temperatures elevated today, but then expect a steady downward trend over the next couple days. Winds will die down across most of the region Monday night, so that will likely be the coldest night.

As upper level flow remains progressive, a strong short-wave trough will move in from the Bering on Tuesday, inducing a moisture tap from the Pacific and leading to cyclogenesis over the Gulf. Right now it does look like this storm will remain over the Gulf, with little impact on Southcentral. If it tracks far enough west, Kodiak could see some accumulating snow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Tuesday night) .

The big story across Southwest this morning is falling temperatures and increasing winds. Temps will continue to drop this morning across all of southwest Alaska as a strong cold front works its way inland. Bands of snow are expected to move inland over the Kuskokwim Delta coast this morning. This snowfall, combined with gusty onshore winds, will limit visibility at times throughout the day today. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta coast north of Kipnuk, where the worst conditions are expected. Areas farther inland may also see deteriorating conditions as the bands of snow do have the potential to reach inland areas, including Bethel, this afternoon. By tonight, any lingering precipitation should taper off, however winds will remain elevated before finally diminishing Monday morning. The next feature to keep an eye on is a low spinning up over the Pribilof Islands Monday morning. There is still uncertainty regarding where this low tracks, however current thinking is it will move eastward, nearing the Bristol Bay area by Tuesday morning. This feature could bring precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula for Tuesday. By Tuesday night, conditions generally quiet down as a ridge builds over the eastern Bering.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Tuesday night) .

Cold northerly flow returns to the Bering as a strong cold front moves through. Scattered snow showers can be expected through the day. An upper level low dropping down from the north will aid to spin up a surface low over the western Bering this afternoon. While models have consistently shown this low strengthening as it reaches the Pribilof Islands by Monday morning, there is less certainty regarding where this low tracks by Tuesday. Overall, an easterly track with this low is expected, with the center arriving somewhere near the Bristol Bay area by Monday night. The next impact over the Bering will be a front approaching the western Aleutians by Tuesday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

High pressure centered southeast of Adak Tuesday afternoon and low pressure to the northwest of Savoonga will create a tight pressure gradient across the northern Bering, where some sustained gales are possible. Further south and west, a front will approach the western Aleutians ahead of an incoming area of low pressure. The center of high pressure then moves to Dutch Harbor on Wednesday and into western Alaska for Thursday. This allows the front to trek eastward into the central Aleutians and Bering, with sustained gales possibly developing.

Gulf of Alaska:

A strengthening area of low pressure approaches the Gulf Tuesday evening, with a sustained gale force front preceding its arrival. As this low deepens further across the northern Gulf Wednesday morning, high-end sustained gales, with storm force gusts, are anticipated to develop. This low then moves ashore between Cordova and Yakutat Wednesday evening, with sustained gales continuing near the northern Gulf Coast. An offshore flow pattern develops on Thursday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday).

Guidance is in fairly good agreement leading to high confidence on the long term upper-level pattern for Wednesday and Thursday with an upper level trough over the mainland and a modest upper level ridge over the Bering. This will lead to cold temperatures over the mainland of Alaska with warmer temperatures over the Bering and Aleutian Chain. The upper level ridge over the Bering will slowly work towards the mainland Thursday leading to a warming trend. Beyond Thursday night is when the models begin to diverge on the upper level pattern and the placement of features. While the trend is there on both models for a warming trend, the degree to how strong this warming trend will be is still uncertain. This is leading to only low to moderate confidence in the forecast for temperatures Friday into Saturday of next week. The placement of features in the upper level flow is in question as one model has the upper level ridge further west and more amplified while another is less amplified.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 155. MARINE . Gale 119 120 125 130 131 132 137 138 139 141 179 180 181 185 351 352. Heavy Freezing Spray 180 181 185 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . LTB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 5 mi58 min WSW 8.9 G 16 40°F 39°F1013.6 hPa
46264 44 mi40 min 40°F6 ft
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 82 mi40 min WNW 11 G 23 35°F 1012.1 hPa21°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 93 mi80 min W 27 G 33 34°F 37°F7 ft1014.1 hPa (-0.9)24°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK4 mi77 minNNW 11 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds42°F17°F36%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE6S5SE6------S5SE3S3CalmCalmW3CalmN3NW7W7NW8NW9NW11W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Kodiak, Port of Kodiak, Alaska
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Kodiak
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM AKDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM AKDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:35 PM AKDT     8.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 PM AKDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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77.26.85.642.61.71.72.545.87.58.58.67.763.81.5-0.1-0.8-0.313.15.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kodiak, Women's Bay, Alaska
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Kodiak
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:55 AM AKDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM AKDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:38 PM AKDT     8.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 PM AKDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.97.26.85.64.12.61.71.72.53.95.77.48.48.67.86.13.91.6-0.1-0.8-0.4135.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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