Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kodiak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 7:56PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 10:37 AM AKDT (18:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 9:11PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ136 Chiniak Bay- 352 Pm Akdt Tue Sep 22 2020
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
Wed..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Thu and Thu night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kodiak, AK
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location: 57.78, -152.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 231255 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 455 AM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. There is a low in the Gulf of Alaska with a tightly wound occluded front. The latest ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) pass had detected gales in Shelikof Strait and in the Gulf. East of Yakutat some storm force winds were detected. There is another low south of the Aleutian Chain and lightning strikes were detected overnight south of Adak. Also looking at satellite imagery both lows have a discernible fetch of tropical moisture associated with them. With the western system, the front extends back to Japan and marries up with Tropical Storm Dolphin in the West Pacific Basin. The radars at Kenai and Middleton Island have been active with showing rainfall overnight. Meanwhile, portions of Southwest and the Interior have been experiencing mostly clear skies.

MODEL DISCUSSION. For initialization purposes, the 6z radars at Kenai and Middleton Island were compared to the precipitation shields of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF and Canadian and they all did very well. The model guidance is in decent agreement with the placement of the major synoptic features through 48 hrs. The problem is with the individual lows that are rotating through the low complex in the Gulf. By 12z Saturday, there are some sizable discrepancies over the North Pacific and Southcentral.

AVIATION. PANC . Ceilings and visibility are expected to remain VFR with not a lot of significant changes over the next day. There will be some periods of light showers with the best chance for showers and a possible ceiling under 5000 ft will be this morning as a little stronger wave moves in from over the northern Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A very similar pattern is over Southcentral Alaska today as was yesterday. The biggest difference is that the initial push of the front over the Gulf of Alaska has moved inland and is just west of the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges early this morning. The rest of the front remains over the north GUlf coast and into the eastern Gulf with a number of waves embedded in it best seen on the GOES-17 Satellite imagery. The front in this region is nowhere as strong as yesterday so winds along the north Gulf coast and in the adjacent marine waters will not be as strong today in those areas.

With the complex low encompassing most of the Gulf of Alaska and rotating smaller low centers around it, the overall pattern will persist over Southcentral for the next few days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A large upper level trough remains in place over the Gulf of Alaska. This will keep cool and dry northerly flow in place over Southwest Alaska through Thursday. Coastal locations are likely to see gusty northerly flow continue through Friday, while winds across interior areas will diminish tonight into Thursday morning. As the low over the Gulf retrogrades westward, showers will spread in across Bristol Bay from the east on Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A large upper level trough in place over the Gulf of Alaska has allowed northerly winds to continue over the eastern Bering. An embedded wave on the west side of this trough is moving southward over the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula this morning generating scattered showers from the Pribilof Islands east. Farther west, a weak low will move over the western Aleutians bringing easterly flow and rain. This feature will move east before moving south Thursday afternoon. The largely zonal jet in place south of the Aleutian Chain will keep weak, disorganized flow across the Bering through the end of the week with model solutions suggesting a broad upper level trough in place across the Bering Friday morning. By Friday night, the northerly flow returns; this time accompanied by a colder, drier airmass with models suggesting 850mb temps on the order of -7C.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday).

Gulf of Alaska: There is high confidence that a low pressure system in the northwest Gulf will weaken on Friday resulting in mostly calm conditions across the Gulf through Sunday morning. A second low is expected to briefly pass through the southeast Gulf Sunday morning, but winds and waves in the western Gulf should remain calm.

Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain: A polar shortwave is expected to move south Friday and Saturday bringing small craft to gale force winds to the western Bering/Aleutians on Saturday. Forecast confidence has increased considerably since yesterday in regards to this feature. On Sunday there is high confidence that calmer conditions will return to the region as the shortwave moves into the north Pacific.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday).

A typical fall pattern is expected to persist through the forecast period. A high amplitude trough with two large upper level waves will be the main focus for the extended period. The low level center of the eastern wave is expected to pass from the Gulf and into the eastern Bering on Saturday, which will bring the highest probability of rain to the Alaska mainland Saturday and Sunday. The low is then expected to remain nearly stationary over the Akpen, which will bring showery activity to Southwest, the AKPEN and central Bering/Aleutian Chain. For Southcentral, broad southerly flow is expected to continue the overcast pattern with rain most likely over the Gulf Coast, Kodiak Island, and areas of high terrain.

The western upper level low center is expected to drop south from far eastern Russia bringing a cold airmass over the western Bering on Saturday. Models have come to much better agreement in regards to the surface feature with the low center expected to bring gale force winds to the western Bering on Saturday. This low is then expected to merge with the jet stream, traveling south of the AOR through Monday before moving north into the eastern Gulf late Monday night. After this time model uncertainty increases considerably in regards to the low track. The EC and Canadian deterministic solutions bring the system onshore in Southeast AK, which would result in few impacts to Southcentral, while the GFS deterministic solution brings a gale force low over the Kenai Peninsula, which would bring heavier rain and wind to the area.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 5 mi49 min N 11 G 14 52°F 52°F984.6 hPa
46264 44 mi41 min 52°F9 ft
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 82 mi37 min NW 8.9 G 14 50°F 985.8 hPa (+0.0)50°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 93 mi47 min N 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 52°F6 ft986.1 hPa (+0.0)47°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK4 mi44 minVar 61.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F89%984.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE19
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2 days agoE4NE5E8E9E11E11E10SE10SE13SE6SE6SE6SE13E11E11E14E15E17E18E17E16NE15E16NE16

Tide / Current Tables for Kodiak, Port of Kodiak, Alaska
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Kodiak
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM AKDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM AKDT     6.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:42 PM AKDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:56 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:03 PM AKDT     8.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.10.31.42.94.45.66.36.35.74.83.732.83.44.45.87.18.28.68.37.35.83.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kodiak, Women's Bay, Alaska
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Kodiak
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM AKDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:30 AM AKDT     6.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:44 PM AKDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:56 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:06 PM AKDT     8.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:11 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.10.31.42.84.45.66.36.35.74.83.832.83.34.45.77.18.28.68.37.35.84

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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