Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 3:57AMSunset 10:07PM Friday July 3, 2020 10:01 PM AKDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 953 Pm Akdt Fri Jul 3 2020 Updated
Rest of tonight..SW wind 10 kt late in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Sat night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 032305 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 305 PM AKDT Fri Jul 3 2020

SHORT TERM. Visible satellite imagery reveals that clear skies have continued to be prevalent throughout much of the northern and central panhandle, with the presence of some stratus in the outer coastal waters. These clear skies over much of the area have enabled warm temperatures to once more spread throughout these parts of SE Alaska, although temperatures remain cooler than Wednesday. This cooler weather can be traced back to a ridge which has begun to build over the inner channels, encouraging southerly flow. This southerly flow is bringing in a more maritime and cooler airmass, which will bring high temperatures across the panhandle back into the 60s on Saturday and Sunday.

The southern Panhandle continues to sit under cloud cover, which has encouraged some lingering isolated showers. These showers will continue to be transient in nature, and so only minimal accumulation if any at all from them is expected.

Looking ahead, Friday evening could see the development of a marine layer, as the marine airmass may be sufficient for stratus development in the outer coastal waters. However, any marine layer that develops does not look likely to push significantly into the panhandle on Friday night, although it may reach as far as Cross Sound. On Saturday the low in the northern gulf will slowly weaken and the ridge over the panhandle will continue to build. Some isolated showers may be possible in various locations as weak southerly onshore flow will continue to draw the marine airmass into the inner channels and sea breeze circulations will still be operational in the afternoon. bringing with it additional cloud cover. This southerly flow will support the continued slight chance for a shower or two in various parts of the panhandle on Saturday and Sunday. No major wind concerns are expected Saturday and Sunday, with the strongest winds expected to be 15 kt and 20 kt winds in the outer coastal waters.

Model agreement was fairly solid today, and forecaster confidence is average.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through Friday/ Broad northwest flow across the gulf should be enough to seed a few weak surface systems skirting just southeast of the Panhandle into next week. How close they get to the southern Panhandle will greatly determine whether areas south of Kake/Petersburg/Wrangell including Ketchikan receive a mere threat of a shower, or if they receive something more organized on Sunday. While the northern Panhandle will continue to be mainly dry, some moisture could make it across the mountains from BC into Upper Lynn Canal Sunday, but not likely. South of Upper Lynn Canal, the weak nature of the low to the south may not result in offshore flow across a wide layer in the atmospheric column and presumed sunshine. Instead, indications more strongly hint that onshore flow develops in the southern low's wake. Thus, we have introduced slight chances of showers for much of the north early next week with mainly cloudy skies. But despite increases in cloud cover and pop, we saw no need in tampering with temperatures yet again. It should be stated that this pattern favors above normal temperatures, just likely no where near the records of Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

Proceeding later in the week, all solutions point to a broader regime of onshore flow which should result in potentially more organized rainfall for Southeast. Timing and whether any system actually makes its way onshore or stalls over the eastern gulf still require us to keep pops below 60 percent for now.

Ensembles were used for edits, but minimal changes were needed. Forecast confidence is good on broad features, if blurry on discrete surface features along with their timing and tracks.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



GFS/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi44 min 52°F 48°F1017.4 hPa
GEXA2 25 mi19 min W 13 G 14 51°F 1014.4 hPa51°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi52 min WNW 9.9 G 14 52°F 1016 hPa51°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi36 min S 6 G 11 58°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK25 mi3.1 hrsVar 512.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------5----NW9NW9--NW9--5--5
1 day ago--------------------------Calm--NW9--NW9----N124--Calm
2 days ago--------------------------Calm--Calm--NW11--NW10--NW10--NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM AKDT     11.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM AKDT     -2.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:47 PM AKDT     8.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 PM AKDT     2.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Sat -- 10:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1110.79.16.53.40.5-1.6-2.6-2.2-0.61.94.56.88.28.67.86.34.63.32.73.24.66.78.8

Tide / Current Tables for Takanis Bay, Alaska
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Takanis Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM AKDT     10.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM AKDT     -2.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:41 PM AKDT     8.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 PM AKDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Sat -- 10:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.910.58.86.33.40.6-1.5-2.4-2-0.42.14.76.98.28.47.76.34.73.42.93.44.86.88.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.