.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Another day of showers and low stratus was realized yet again today across Bristol Bay, the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. This showery activity looks to persist as additional weak shortwaves move through the area in the midst of westerly flow off the Bering Sea. A storm system across the western and central Bering continues to gather this afternoon.
Lightning strikes have been prevalent across the marine zones of the western and central Bering for much of today as the storm continues to strengthen.

The storm continues moving eastward tonight and makes it to Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning. A shortwave dropping southward out of Siberia looks to phase into the main trough moving across the Aleutians on Wednesday. This will help to further deepen the system before its energy transfers eastward into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday evening. Moderate to heavy rain will be possible across the Bristol Bay land zone, AKPEN, and perhaps southern portions of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley Wednesday. Steady rain becomes more showery in nature for Thursday as the storm moves to the central Gulf and occludes.

Southerly to southeast gap winds this afternoon and evening through the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN will turn northwesterly through the day on Wednesday as the storm continues eastward.
Pressure rises and a little cold air advection behind the storm will promote northwesterly gales through the gaps and passes of the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. There could be gusts to storm- force at times through the favored gaps and passes of those areas Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, ridging behind the Gulf storm builds eastward into central Bering Wednesday and the eastern Bering Thursday which will yield a slight reprieve from active weather. However, behind this ridge, a front from a Kamchatka low will deliver a round of rain and gusty southerly winds to the western Bering and western Aleutians Wednesday. This front will weaken as it travels eastward across the central Aleutians Thursday and the Pribilof Islands Thursday night. Isolated showers will continue across the higher terrain of mainland southwest for Friday while most of the valleys should remain dry. Another Kamchatka front looks to move into the Bering Friday with more wind and rain across the western and central Aleutians. This front looks to have a little more moisture associated with it as opposed to the one slated for Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, the rain looks to be a little more widespread across the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands with this round.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An upper level low will move out of the Northern Gulf early Friday morning which will allow a ridge of high pressure to briefly build into the Gulf and South Central Alaska. This will provide a period of drier air and reduced chances of precipitation across the region through early Saturday before the next frontal system moves across the area over the weekend.

For Friday and Saturday, a consensus of model guidance bring a strong upper level low and associated fronts into the Eastern Bering Sea on Saturday. The front will continue into the South Central and Gulf region over the weekend. Models diverge on the track going into Sunday and Monday. The GFS brings the center of the low farther south but is not consistent with the Canadian or European models. More weight is being given to the more northern track which could produce strong prolonged southwesterly onshore winds across the southwestern coast of the state, allowing for the potential of minor coastal flooding and high seas across the Kuskokwim Delta and low-lying coastal communities through early Monday.

A North Pacific low will approach the Western Aleutians late on Monday. It is uncertain whether this system will enter the Bering Sea or remain south of the islands. Regardless of the eventual track, the potential for strong northerly gap winds is not out of the question for much of the Western and Central Aleutian Islands.

-DD

AVIATION

PANC...MVFR conditions are expected in the evening as ceilings lower from steady rainfall. Ceilings will reach a minimum in the morning hours and localized IFR conditions cannot be ruled out due to persistent southwesterly flow and a very moist air mass. A Turnagain Jet will impact the terminal through Wednesday morning, but there is some uncertainty exactly when it will dissipate. VFR conditions will return Wednesday afternoon as the rain slowly clears out, though specific timing cannot be determined.