Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kodiak Station, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A relatively quiet forecast is in store for the western domain for the short term. As of this morning, a ~1000 mb decaying surface low is situated offshore to the west of Goodnews Bay and Togiak, which is bringing showers to the area. The low also has a broad trough axis situated almost east to west across the Bering Sea, which has brought some showers and fog to the Pribilofs.
Guidance shows that the trough does not move much today, leaving showers, low stratus, and patchy fog for the Bering, including the Pribilofs. Due to the lack of upper level support and baroclinic zone, the surface low will continue to weaken and remain quasi- stationary through today and dissipate by Saturday.

On Saturday, a weakening frontal low pressure system quickly moves across the Western Aleutians, giving the area a short window of rain and gusty winds. Some of the model guidance depicts a stout low level inversion with saturated lower levels as precipitation comes to an end and winds relax Saturday evening, indicating that areas of fog could also develop for the region. By Sunday morning, what is left of the low and trough axis dives to the southeast into the North Pacific.

-AM



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A broad upper level trough with multiple centers moving through the pattern continues its hold on the Alaska Weather picture. The main portion of the low centers over the Bering. A weaker trough extending from a Arctic low moves across the Bering into the Central Mainland, but does not contribute to larger scale weather features. A number of shortwaves ripple across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF maintain decent agreement throughout the large scale but yields uncertainty to the transient details.

Sporadic showers are expected across most of Interior Alaska through the week. A well developed surface low brings areas of moderate rain into the Western Aleutians and Bering beginning Monday. The low center crowds the Aleutians as it moves into the AKPEN through Thursday. Gusty winds move over the Western and Central Aleutians with the low's passage, diminishing late Wednesday as the low moves to the South of Kodiak Island. A second North Pacific low moves moderate to heavy rain into the Western Aleutians and Bering for Thursday.

- Kutz



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning will strengthen slightly as they turn southwesterly during the afternoon hours. Wind speeds will decrease again as flow shifts southeasterly overnight.