Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kodiak Station, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:43PM Thursday April 22, 2021 5:29 PM AKDT (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 403 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Fri night..N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kodiak Station, AK
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location: 57.9, -152.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 230120 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 520 PM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The pattern aloft features a developing rex block. What is a rex block you say? A closed high pressure north of a closed low pressure system. What this does is stagnate the upper air pattern, keeping it mostly steady state as long as the block stays in place. Rather than the jet stream keeping a progressive change in the weather, the block forces the jet stream around the state, both to the north and to the south. Currently the high sits over the central portion of the state while the low pressure system is in the north Pacific, just south of the eastern Aleutians. There is a bit of active weather associated with the front between the two large scale systems, wrapping from the Adak/Atka area through the Bering Sea, and across the southwest mainland.

For sensible weather, that blocking high is keeping the Interior very clear, which extends down into Southcentral Alaska. The front is bringing rain from the Kuskokwim Delta through Bristol Bay region as well as the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. Downslope drying, however, is taking a bite out of the precipitation in most locations.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Guidance is in great agreement with decaying the first low pressure system very quickly tonight, and replacing it with another from the northwest Pacific where it will spin in place south of the Alaska Peninsula for the next few days.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. It is possible that some light winds off Turnagain Arm will sneak into the terminal this evening, however they should remain light and not gusty.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A very similar pattern continues with a ridge of high pressure to the north and an area of low pressure south of Dutch Harbor. The ridge is keeping a front stalled across the central Gulf and across into Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula. Rain should begin to dissipate this evening before completely tapering off tomorrow. Once that happens, sunshine will overtake all of Southcentral. Expect warm temperatures and light winds through the rest of the forecast period.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday) .

The upper level jet continues to pump moisture across Southwest Alaska as a weakening frontal system stalls over the area. Expect areas of rain showers in the lower elevations early tonight before tapering off later tonight. Another weak shortwave will kick off a few showers across Bristol Bay and coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta on Friday through Saturday morning. Drier conditions expected by Saturday afternoon with a decrease in cloud cover as high pressure over the interior tries to nudge into the area. On Sunday another low pressure system across the eastern Bering will bring clouds across the area and perhaps some light rain near coastal locations. Cloud cover and easterly winds should keep fog to a minimum across the area over the short term.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday) .

A broad area of low pressure dominates the area extending across most of the Bering and Aleutians. This system will continue to produce periodic showers with small craft winds or less across the area through tomorrow morning. The high pressure over mainland Alaska will pinch off the southern part of the low and leave a piece of energy to move across the western Bering on Friday with a few showers, but winds generally less than 25 knots. By Friday evening a gale force low moves towards the central Aleutians and then into the Bering on Saturday. This low will travel along the Aleutian chain towards the AKPEN by Sunday with winds near Gale force and light rain. Last but not least another shortwave will dive down across the western Bering on Sunday with small craft winds and slightly cooler air.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

The big question for the extended forecast is how long does this blocking high pressure remain in place. Historically, model guidance struggles with such features and tends to break them down too fast once established. Dry and clear conditions can be expected for southcentral as long as that block stays in place, likely into early next week. The low pressure system that will be in place near the Alaska Peninsula will decay in place will keep some cloudiness and rain over the southwest mainland. Expect above normal temperatures across Southcentral Alaska to continue along with seasonally normal dry conditions.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Warning 121 (Anchor River). MARINE . Gale Warning 170 172 174. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ML SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . ML/MK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 14 mi59 min NE 8 G 12 41°F 42°F1014.5 hPa
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 79 mi29 min NE 28 G 33 40°F 1016.1 hPa (-1.0)39°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 81 mi39 min NE 19 G 23 39°F 38°F5 ft1013.9 hPa (-0.3)39°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK13 mi36 minNE 112.00 miFog/Mist43°F41°F93%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE9NE8NE6NE8NE12NE13NE10NE11NE13NE13NE14NE12NE15NE16NE14
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2 days agoNE17E17E13E15E12E14E15E14E14E10E8E8E6E8NE6E5E7E5NE6NE7E9NE9E11NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska
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Kizhuyak Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:49 AM AKDT     3.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:40 AM AKDT     7.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:09 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 PM AKDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.56.15.24.33.63.43.84.55.66.77.57.67.164.62.91.50.70.71.32.64.25.86.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ouzinkie, Spruce Island, Alaska
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Ouzinkie
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:36 AM AKDT     3.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM AKDT     7.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:08 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 PM AKDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.15.64.83.93.43.33.74.55.56.57.27.26.65.542.41.20.60.71.42.74.25.76.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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