Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kodiak Station, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:33AMSunset 11:20PM Saturday May 30, 2020 4:17 AM AKDT (12:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:12PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 347 Am Akdt Sat May 30 2020
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kodiak Station, AK
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location: 57.9, -152.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 300043 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKDT Fri May 29 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A rather large vertically stacked upper low is occupying much of the Northeastern Pacific stretching from 40N all the way into 60N. Satellite imagery shows multiple shortwave features extending along the outer perimeter of this circulation. One such wave brought some shower activity to the Copper Basin, Susitna Valley, and upper hillside of the Anchorage bowl Thursday evening. The upper level high over the Alaska Yukon border is retreating to the east some and the ridging over Southwest Alaska is squeezing shut as a frontal boundary over the Central Bering moves eastward. The Bering front is bringing some gales to the waters around Atka. An upper trough in the Northwest Pacific continues to act on behalf of the front in the Bering along with a strong jetstream digging into the south side of the trough.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Synoptic model agreement continues to remain in lockstep. Sleuthing out the finer details of the easterly waves passing through Southern Alaska will remain the primary challenge to forecast.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through day, but expect some gusty southeast winds at terminal in late afternoon and evening hours along with some scattered showers.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A vertically stacked low continues to track slowly northward in the Gulf. Upper level shortwaves moving east to west on the north side of the low combined with slightly greater instability will lead to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms today across much of Southcentral near higher terrain. This also includes the interior Kenai Peninsula. While model agreement does diminish some beyond this evening, there is high confidence for a wetter, more unsettled pattern through the weekend. There remains a very slight chance of thunderstorms in the Susitna Valley Saturday. The rainy pattern will bring mostly cloudy skies and temperatures back into the 50s by Sunday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper level ridge over Southwest Alaska this afternoon will continue to move out of the forecast area as the thermal trough lifts northward. As this trough moves into the area, the potential for thunderstorm activity increases for Saturday afternoon and evening across the Kuskokwim Valley. The biggest forecast challenge has been identifying where the highest potential for rain showers and thunderstorm activity as models all have slightly different solutions. However, these unstable conditions on Saturday will weaken overnight as another wave brings in a round of precipitation across interior Bristol Bay for early Sunday. By the afternoon hours on Sunday, the potential for convective activity and thunderstorms shifts to the northern Kuskokwim Delta.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

IR satellite imagery shows a decaying front stretched from the Pribilofs down over the central Aleutians, which will continue to shift slightly eastward as it weakens through Saturday morning. Winds across the central Bering and precipitation will also taper off with this system through Saturday afternoon. Winds will once again increase along the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula heading into Saturday evening as a low system south of the Chain moves eastward, with winds strengthening to gale force by Sunday morning. This system will bring widespread precipitation to the central Aleutians starting Saturday afternoon, which will spread eastward through Sunday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Gulf Of Alaska: A new low will move into the GOA Monday and Tuesday but the surface low will hover south of Kodiak and slowly push east as time elapses, weakening along the way. Moisture will get wrapped around the back side of the low which will keep the chance for precipitation in the region.

Bering: Monday afternoon there will be a surface low south of the AKPEN which will bring northerly winds to much of the Bering. The pressure gradient forces at this time do not look impressive for the Bering, so relative mild weather is expected for this forecast period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

The NCEP RMOP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Relative Measure of Predictability) pings into the level of uncertainty in the Bering and the low in the GOA during Days 3-7. However, the RMOP confidently scores the high pressure in the Central and North Pacific. Long story short, there will be multiple lows forming in the Bering although the consensus on the low tracks is not perfect and the Gulf Of Alaska will also be wet and unsettled for this forecast period. The significance of the high in the North Pacific is that lows will follow the path of least resistance and the placement and intensity of the dome of high pressure gives us insight to where the corridor is for these to lows to potentially move through. Looking at the deterministic model guidance, at the onset of the forecast period, the longwave pattern features broad troughing from the Yukon Territory to Kamchatka. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the pattern with a closed low south of Cold Bay. The closed upper level low moves east-southeast and a new closed low develops over the Western Bering later in the period. To reiterate, overall the pattern looks unsettled and wet. There is also an upper level high north of the the Brooks Range but it won't impact the sensible weather for the southern tier of the state.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 14 mi48 min NE 1 G 1.9 46°F 47°F1011.9 hPa
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 79 mi48 min S 4.1 G 7 50°F 1012.2 hPa44°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 81 mi88 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 50°F1 ft1011.7 hPa (-0.6)48°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK13 mi25 minWNW 510.00 miFair44°F37°F79%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W4SW3W8NE10NE5NE6NE5NE6E4S4S8SW3NE6NE5NE3SE5CalmCalmW5W7W6W5
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2 days agoW4W4W4NW4N3NE8NE7NE10NE11NE11E10NE11NE9E10NE10E9E5CalmNW9NW8NW12NW9NW8NW11

Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska
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Kizhuyak Point
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Sat -- 02:27 AM AKDT     3.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:56 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM AKDT     7.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:12 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:04 PM AKDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:51 PM AKDT     7.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.73.13.23.84.85.977.57.46.65.33.620.80.30.71.73.24.86.47.47.67.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ouzinkie, Spruce Island, Alaska
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Ouzinkie
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM AKDT     2.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:56 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM AKDT     7.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:11 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:51 PM AKDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:41 PM AKDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.433.13.84.85.86.77.26.964.73.11.60.50.30.71.83.24.96.27.17.26.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.