.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

A potent upper level low is moving ashore near the Kuskokwim Delta this morning, pushing gusty but not particularly strong onshore winds into Southwest as it heads northeast. Steady rain along the low's occluded front close to the Alaska Range is giving way to showers as seasonably cool air aloft moves into place with the low and facilitates a more unstable atmospheric profile. More zonal flow is in place across the Bering and Aleutians, with the typical low stratus meandering across most of the region. The next system of interest that will soon bring a bit more unsettled conditions to the Aleutian Chain is approaching Shemya from the southwest. This next low and occluded frontal system will move quickly northeast today into the Aleutians, spreading rain and gusty southeast to southwest wind to around small craft intensity into the southern Bering Sea. Very warm low level temperatures and moisture will also stream north along and behind the low's front, likely helping to support a strong inversion off the sea surface and widespread fog advancing north and east with time towards the southern AKPen and Pribilofs through at least Saturday.

Looking more towards the weekend, the pattern will remain unsettled as multiple weak shortwaves continue to traverse the mostly westerly flow in place aloft and bring intermittent rounds of rain to both the greater Bering region and Southwest. Much of Southwest could actually see a decent break in the rain and even see a few breaks of sunshine in between systems on Saturday, but this should prove short-lived. The next stronger shortwave will move quickly across the Bering Saturday night, helping to maintain the existing surface low then drifting north of the Pribilofs. The low and attendant front will arrive in Southwest on Sunday morning, spreading more steady rain into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile, a much deeper upper trough will drop down from Kamchatka into the western Bering between Saturday and Sunday, then swing east towards the Southwest coast yet again with more rainfall potential Sunday evening. In short, the fall-like, cool and wet pattern is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday to Thursday)...

No change to previous discussion

An active pattern is expected to persist throughout the period.
A shortwave over the Bering embedded within the main longwave trough axis will move over Southwest Alaska late Sunday.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain is possible over Southwest Alaska by late Sunday, with the system spreading eastward into Southcentral Alaska during the day Monday. Unsettled conditions with periods of showers are expected to persist for Southern Alaska on both Tuesday and Wednesday as the now upper level low remains situated over mainland Alaska. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are possible across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday as the low departs to the east over the Northern Gulf and a weak transient surface high builds in over the central Aleutians. Another system emerges from the North Pacific and impacts the Aleutians with periods of rain on Wednesday. Overall, temperatures will remain below average for the long term period with persistent cloud cover and rain.

-ME

AVIATION

PANC...A series of short-waves will lead to multiple rounds of rain today with varying intensity. As a result, there will be some fluctuations in ceiling and vis. Initially, low level southeast flow will keep conditions primarily in the VFR category.
However, as we head through the day the depth of southeast flow will become more shallow and the strongest dynamics (and heaviest rain) will arrive, with a period of MVFR conditions likely. IFR is not out of the question in this pattern, though it would be brief in nature if it did get that low. VFR conditions will then return as the primary trough axis crosses through between 00Z and 06Z.
Meanwhile, gusty southeast winds will be in and out of the terminal, but will ultimately prevail for much of the day.