Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Lions, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The large stacked low is continuing to hover south of Kodiak Island in southwestern Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation across Southwest Alaska is greatly diminished this afternoon. Chance of precipitation will continue clear away completely tonight and skies look to clear across Southwest through Tuesday. Tuesday night a weak shortwave trough will dip south and a passing light shower is possible towards the Kuskokwim mountains with upslope flow. This will be short lived and quiet weather with mostly clear skies will prevail for Southwest. With the southern half of the state under cyclonic flow, cool offshore flow for Southwest.

Across the Bering Sea, northerly flow with cold air advection is leading to strong, gale force winds and gusts up to 40 knots across the Pribilofs and through the eastern Aleutians. Seas around 20 feet across the southern Bering Sea will continue to gradually subside as a response to winds decreasing Monday. Toward the western Bering Sea and western/central Aleutians is high pressure with a field of cumulus and stratus clouds and quieter weather. A frontal boundary stretches from a South Kamchatka low into the western Bering and across the Aleutians between Amchitka and Adak. Overall, synoptic model agreement is considerably good for the key features, however, the low drifting towards the Aleutians from Kamchatka is trending more south. Consensus with models breaks down further by Wednesday morning. Models point towards a Rex Block pattern by midweek, with a ridge of high pressure spanning the Bering Sea to the southwestern Alaska coast, a somewhat disorganized trough pattern along the Aleutians, and a deep cold low over the Alaska interior mainland. Periods of showers will likely continue through the short term.

rux

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A ridge builds into the Bering Sea mid-week through the beginning of next weekend resulting in northerly winds and dry conditions on the north side of the Aleutians. Meanwhile, a slow moving low in the North Pacific brings scattered rain showers and southerly winds to the southern portions of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the end of this week. Isolated coastal showers and interior dry conditions are likely in Southwest Alaska through the weekend.

The aforementioned low in the North Pacific moves eastward later this week into the weekend bringing southerly winds and rain to Kodiak Island and portions of the Kenai Peninsula. Waves of moisture will also move into the Northern Gulf pointing to signs of a wet conditions from mid-week to the end of the week. However, as this low migrates eastward toward Southeast Alaska, the chance for drier conditions in Southcentral Alaska mid-week into the weekend increases. A trough will dive southwards across Interior Alaska resulting in the possibility of accumulating snow mid- week for portions of the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley.

- Johnston

AVIATION

PANC...Expect mainly light northerly winds and VFR conditions to be maintained through the TAF period. Some showers could make it over the mountains this afternoon through early this evening; however, the persistent southeast flow aloft should keep the area mostly dry with most precipitation remaining confined south and east at the coast. With low level moisture lingering and weakening winds near the surface overnight, any breaks in the cloud cover could lead to additional radiational cooling and the development of patchy fog in the vicinity of the terminal by early Monday morning.