Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 270156 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 456 PM AKST Tue Jan 26 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An amplified pattern remains in place across the Bering and mainland. A deep, hurricane-force low is circulating over the western Aleutians and gradually drifting northeastward into the northern Bering. The leading front associated with this low is producing gusty southerly flow as it tracks over the central and eastern Aleutians and approaches the southwest coast. Meanwhile a strong ridge maintains its hold over the eastern Bering. Low level stratus and fog lingered across parts of Southcentral this morning, however most areas have cleared with only residual patches of stratus in place over the Copper River Basin.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good agreement with the track of the hurricane force low over the Bering and the timing of the associated front arriving over Southwest Alaska. Model solutions are less aligned with regard to the formation of a triple point low near Kodiak Island Thursday morning. Overall, forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Patchy fog may form in the vicinity of the terminal again during the morning hours on Wednesday but does not look very likely.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday evening) .

Gusty offshore winds through terrain gaps south of the Copper River Basin will diminish overnight through Wednesday morning as high pressure weakens over northwestern Canada. Lows below zero are expected across much of Anchorage and the Mat-Su with mostly clear skies and light winds. Cold and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday.

A front associated with a large Bering low will track into the Gulf Wednesday evening. Mixed precipitation will begin over Kodiak Island in the afternoon. This will quickly track over the Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral, falling as all snow. A shortwave trough will move over the Anchorage area early Thursday morning leading to light snow accumulations potentially affecting the morning commute. As a low behind the front strengthens and moves into the Gulf, flow will become more easterly and confine the precipitation to coastal areas. As such significant accumulations are likely in Whitter through Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Fog and low stratus remain across some areas of Southwest Alaska this afternoon, including Bethel, which has finally cleared out the foggy conditions. The remainder of the region has stayed under clear conditions today, but this quiet pattern will quickly come to an end overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. A front approaching the Southwest coast will bring a mix of hazards as it moves inland starting Wednesday morning.

Areas along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and coastal areas of Bristol Bay will see blowing snow on the front edge of this system as it moves inland, along with periods of heavy snowfall. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast starting Wednesday morning for blowing snow, which could drop visibility to one half mile at times. Over Bristol Bay, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for snow and blowing snow, with snow totals expecting to be at least 6 inches from Koliganek west through Thursday morning. Interior locations are also expected to see a few inches of new snowfall as the front moves out of the region on Thursday, keeping a showery pattern in the forecast through Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Strong winds associated with a hurricane force low over the western Aleutians persists this afternoon. A slight westward track from yesterday's models has brought the strong winds and gusts into Shemya, thus a High Wind Warning remains in effect through tonight before winds begin to weaken. The associated front will continue its eastward track crossing over the Pribilofs and central Aleutians the evening before moving into the Southwest coast for Wednesday morning. Widespread precipitation will accompany this system, with rain along the Aleutians as warmer temperatures move in.

The aforementioned low will work its way eastward into the Southwest mainland by early Friday morning. Expect widespread gale force winds, with pockets of storm force winds, to persists across the Bering through the end of the week. Behind this low, colder air moving in will keep a showery pattern for snow across much of the Bering and Aleutians over the next few days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Friday through Sunday.

Gulf of Alaska: A Northern Gulf low exits through the Southern Gulf late Sat. This wind wrapped low brings widespread small craft winds and waves over the Gulf with local gale force winds along the North Gulf Coast diminishing over the Northern and Eastern Gulf Sat. A strong gradient west of the low maintains Northwesterly gale force winds from the Barren Islands southwest to the Shumagin Islands through Sun. Wave heights to 17 feet subsiding over the Northern Gulf for Sat, and building to 25 feet across the Southern Gulf through Sun.

Aleutians/Bering: A front entering the Western Aleutians and Bering Fri night moves to the Central Aleutians and Bering by Sun. Widespread gale force winds over the Aleutians and Bering with areas of storm force winds over the Northern Bering move with the front through Sun. Wave heights to 25 feet subside near the Alaska Peninsula Sat, and build to 25 feet over the Western and Central Aleutians and Bering through Sun.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)

A pattern change is likely during the extended period. The pattern will begin with an upper trough extending across the Alaska mainland and an upper ridge extending across the Bering/Aleutians Saturday morning and transition to an upper trough over the Bering/Aleutians and an upper ridge over the Alaskan mainland by Tuesday. In a nutshell, this is a cold and fairly dry pattern for Southcentral and Southwest on Saturday and Sunday. The cold air will become more moderated on Monday and Tuesday when the upper ridge moves over Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. This pattern will promote dry conditions as well due to continuous offshore flow. A more active weather pattern is expected across the Bering/Aleutians as upper level troughing becomes the dominant pattern. There is good ensemble agreement in the longwave pattern during the extended period which means forecast confidence in the broad overall pattern is above average. However, there is larger disagreement in models with resolving the placement and intensity of lows in the western Bering which will make for a lower forecasting confidence in that area.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning 191 Winter Weather Advisory 155 161. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/ED

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK

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SW6 G15

W4 G11

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SW4 G11

SW4 G14

S4 G16

W13 G20

W3 G8

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S3 G6

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NE11 G15

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NE12 G17

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N6 G13

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NE10 G18

W4 G13

NW8 G17

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W4 G13

SE3 G6

NW10 G19

W11 G17

SW10 G14

S4 G7

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W22 G36

W16 G35

W16 G37

W15 G26

W15 G32

W14 G30

W10 G19

W7 G24

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W6 G9

NE4 G7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK	20 mi	44 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Fair	28°F	21°F	75%	1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)

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W9

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N5 G15

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W30 G39

W29 G37

W28 G34

W27 G34

NW28 G36

W28 G39

W25 G36

W19 G33

NW22 G32

NW18 G28

NW17 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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