Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Lions, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:03AMSunset 3:44PM Friday December 13, 2019 5:05 PM AKST (02:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:58PMMoonset 10:26AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 348 Pm Akst Fri Dec 13 2019
.gale warning Saturday night...
Tonight..W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
Sat night..E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
Sun..E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
Sun night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AK
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location: 57.98, -152.75     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 140145 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A weakening low continues to lift slowly northward across the western Gulf, with showers and strong winds out ahead of it across the northern to western Gulf. With easterly flow, showers extend onshore across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, with a few showers slopping over the mountains to the western Kenai and Anchorage. As per the 12Z Anchorage sounding, a warm above freezing layer is still in place, so precipitation is falling primarily as rain. Marginally cooler air aloft is advecting in from the east, but it isn't enough to completely erode the warm layer. A surface trough extends east-northeast from the Gulf low. This is leading to strengthening winds out ahead of it, particularly along the north Gulf coast. Steady rain also accompanies the trough.

Weak upper level waves transiting Southwest Alaska are producing areas of mostly very light precipitation. Colder air is moving in from the Bering with a well defined, but weak trough axis. This is slowly transitioning precip to snow. However, for the time being there is a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain across the region.

Out west, a high amplitude trough is amplifying over the north central Pacific, as a strong short-wave digs down the back side. As a result, a new surface low has spun up on the front side of the trough and is tracking toward the Eastern Aleutians (Dutch Harbor). A frontal boundary out ahead of this low is strung out along the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea, leading to rain and gale force winds.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement with handling of large scale features through Saturday. Solutions then diverge with track and strength of a new surface low moving from the Pacific toward Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday. All solutions are much stronger with this low than yesterday, which makes sense based on the high amplitude pattern. However, the GFS solution seems too strong. For now, will take an average position and depth. While forecast confidence is low in the vicinity of Kodiak and the Alaska Peninsula, there is much better agreement elsewhere and forecast confidence is quite a bit higher.

AVIATION. PANC . There is a chance of light precipitation as the upper low over the Gulf opens into a trough and crosses overhead of Anchorage between about 12Z and 18Z Saturday. However, low level southeasterly flow will persist, so VFR ceilings should persist. Precipitation-type is also a challenge, with forecast soundings maintaining at least a small above freezing layer. Could see rain, freezing rain, or even snow - but precipitation will be very light and possibly not even measurable. As the upper wave passes by, Turnagain winds will bend into Anchorage, which will cause temperatures to jump to well above freezing. These winds will be relatively short-lived. As a front moves into the southwestern Gulf Saturday afternoon, down Inlet pressure gradients will strengthen and push the Turnagain wind back over the northern Inlet.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The low pressure system in the central Gulf is currently south of Seward as it continues its progression towards the northern Gulf coast. This low will continue to produce gusty east-southeasterly winds across the Gulf as the low looks to make landfall. Rain continues to fall across the coastal regions from Kodiak City to western Prince William Sound and Cordova. Waves of upper level energy will continue to rotate around this area of low pressure to provide enough support for periods of very light rainfall or sprinkles to make its way to the leeward side of the Chugach and Kenai mountains this evening. This energy combined with a shift in wind direction from southeasterly to southerly aloft, will make for increased chances of precipitation around the Anchorage Bowl overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This wind direction will continue to bring warmer temperatures up Cook Inlet which should keep precipitation in the lower elevations as liquid across Anchorage and the Mat Valley. Uncertainty with precipitation type remains as the trough lifts north and the Turnagain Arm wind bends over Anchorage, as the transition to a southeasterly wind over Anchorage would likely push temperatures a few degrees above freezing and keep any rainfall from freezing at the surface. However, if the wind does not bend into the area, temperatures could stay right around the freezing mark and allow for some pockets of freezing rain. If we are to see pockets of freezing rain across the lowest elevations, any accumulation looks like it will be light. Higher elevations of the passes will remain cold enough that snow accumulations of a few inches are likely.

A front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the Aleutian islands will cross the Gulf and make its way inland Saturday into Sunday. Due to this, the wind direction will shift back to southeasterly which looks to downslope over Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula similar to earlier this week. Additionally, Turnagain Arm winds will pick up with peak gusts of 50 mph expected Saturday night. Due to the downsloping, expect little to no precipitation across the region except for coastal and mountainous locations.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through late evening as upper level short-waves continue to move overhead from low pressure over the Gulf. Patchy fog is expected to redevelop along the coastal areas again tonight. The next front moves across the Alaska Peninsula late tonight with the boundary spreading rain to Bristol Bay Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds will increase as the front quickly moves north to the Kuskokwim Delta early afternoon. The Kuskokwim Valley will not see much precipitation from this front as the occluded system pulls the boundary northwestward across the Bering, the eastward extent of the boundary shearing apart. Winds across much of the Valley will keep a light east to northeast flow, with only the Kuskokwim Mountains expected to see snow and gusty southeasterly flow.

The second front moves to the Southwest coast Sunday morning which will re-enforce gusty southeasterly flow and bring another round of light precipitation. The Kuskokwim Valley will again see a similar wind pattern across the region as the fast moving front follows a similar track as the first one. Winds and precipitation taper down late Monday night as the second surface low slowly fills as begins to drift east toward the gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). An active weather pattern is currently underway with the next storm system organizing south of the Central Aleutians. The low associated with this system rapidly deepens to 955 mb as it lifts across the Eastern Aleutians tonight. Storm force winds are expected around the core of the low through Saturday, then winds taper down with the system remaining nearly stationary and filling through Saturday night. Another low develops and moves north late Saturday night. This low crosses over the Alaska Peninsula to the Southern Bering early Sunday, but is kicked to the east Sunday night as yet another North pacific low races up to the Central Aleutians by Sunday evening. Precipitation will mainly be rain around the core of these next several systems, with mixed precipitation or snow across the northern and western areas of the Bering as these low keep a tap into the colder air mass over Kamchatka.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday). The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft advisories or gale warnings will be the norm as each storm system moves through. Forecast confidence with low and frontal positions is above average.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in decent agreement with the synoptic pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Thursday December 19th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one near the AKPEN and a Kamchatka low. There is a dome of high pressure between the two. There are some minor difference with the timing of two different cyclones but the forecast intensity is only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is very similar. Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska. All the while, the second storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the Aleutian chain. For Southcentral Alaska, temperatures will be near or slightly above normal. For the Anchorage metro area the chances of snow in this forecast period look very slim given the current run of the models.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 165 170 172>174. Gale Warning 119 120 125 130>132 136>138 150 155 160 171 175>180. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KH MARINE/LONG TERM . SB/PJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 21 mi60 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 43°F994.4 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 76 mi76 min WNW 12 G 18 41°F 44°F3 ft994.6 hPa (+1.1)40°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 77 mi36 min NE 33 G 39 43°F 994.6 hPa39°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK20 mi73 minN 01.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F39°F89%994.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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5N4N7NW6NW7NE7N4NW8N7N75N6N4CalmNW3
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Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska
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Fox Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:10 AM AKST     8.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:37 AM AKST     2.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:25 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:27 PM AKST     11.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:21 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:57 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:33 PM AKST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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46.48.18.88.67.55.94.33.23.14.168.210.311.511.510.38.25.62.70.4-0.9-10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska
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Kizhuyak Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:53 AM AKST     8.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 AM AKST     2.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:24 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:10 PM AKST     11.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:21 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:58 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:05 PM AKST     -1.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.56.67.98.37.76.553.62.93.34.66.58.510.21110.79.26.94.11.5-0.5-1.2-0.70.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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