Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AK

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for -

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 140145 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A weakening low continues to lift slowly northward across the western Gulf, with showers and strong winds out ahead of it across the northern to western Gulf. With easterly flow, showers extend onshore across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, with a few showers slopping over the mountains to the western Kenai and Anchorage. As per the 12Z Anchorage sounding, a warm above freezing layer is still in place, so precipitation is falling primarily as rain. Marginally cooler air aloft is advecting in from the east, but it isn't enough to completely erode the warm layer. A surface trough extends east-northeast from the Gulf low. This is leading to strengthening winds out ahead of it, particularly along the north Gulf coast. Steady rain also accompanies the trough.

Weak upper level waves transiting Southwest Alaska are producing areas of mostly very light precipitation. Colder air is moving in from the Bering with a well defined, but weak trough axis. This is slowly transitioning precip to snow. However, for the time being there is a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain across the region.

Out west, a high amplitude trough is amplifying over the north central Pacific, as a strong short-wave digs down the back side. As a result, a new surface low has spun up on the front side of the trough and is tracking toward the Eastern Aleutians (Dutch Harbor). A frontal boundary out ahead of this low is strung out along the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea, leading to rain and gale force winds.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement with handling of large scale features through Saturday. Solutions then diverge with track and strength of a new surface low moving from the Pacific toward Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday. All solutions are much stronger with this low than yesterday, which makes sense based on the high amplitude pattern. However, the GFS solution seems too strong. For now, will take an average position and depth. While forecast confidence is low in the vicinity of Kodiak and the Alaska Peninsula, there is much better agreement elsewhere and forecast confidence is quite a bit higher.

AVIATION. PANC . There is a chance of light precipitation as the upper low over the Gulf opens into a trough and crosses overhead of Anchorage between about 12Z and 18Z Saturday. However, low level southeasterly flow will persist, so VFR ceilings should persist. Precipitation-type is also a challenge, with forecast soundings maintaining at least a small above freezing layer. Could see rain, freezing rain, or even snow - but precipitation will be very light and possibly not even measurable. As the upper wave passes by, Turnagain winds will bend into Anchorage, which will cause temperatures to jump to well above freezing. These winds will be relatively short-lived. As a front moves into the southwestern Gulf Saturday afternoon, down Inlet pressure gradients will strengthen and push the Turnagain wind back over the northern Inlet.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The low pressure system in the central Gulf is currently south of Seward as it continues its progression towards the northern Gulf coast. This low will continue to produce gusty east-southeasterly winds across the Gulf as the low looks to make landfall. Rain continues to fall across the coastal regions from Kodiak City to western Prince William Sound and Cordova. Waves of upper level energy will continue to rotate around this area of low pressure to provide enough support for periods of very light rainfall or sprinkles to make its way to the leeward side of the Chugach and Kenai mountains this evening. This energy combined with a shift in wind direction from southeasterly to southerly aloft, will make for increased chances of precipitation around the Anchorage Bowl overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This wind direction will continue to bring warmer temperatures up Cook Inlet which should keep precipitation in the lower elevations as liquid across Anchorage and the Mat Valley. Uncertainty with precipitation type remains as the trough lifts north and the Turnagain Arm wind bends over Anchorage, as the transition to a southeasterly wind over Anchorage would likely push temperatures a few degrees above freezing and keep any rainfall from freezing at the surface. However, if the wind does not bend into the area, temperatures could stay right around the freezing mark and allow for some pockets of freezing rain. If we are to see pockets of freezing rain across the lowest elevations, any accumulation looks like it will be light. Higher elevations of the passes will remain cold enough that snow accumulations of a few inches are likely.

A front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the Aleutian islands will cross the Gulf and make its way inland Saturday into Sunday. Due to this, the wind direction will shift back to southeasterly which looks to downslope over Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula similar to earlier this week. Additionally, Turnagain Arm winds will pick up with peak gusts of 50 mph expected Saturday night. Due to the downsloping, expect little to no precipitation across the region except for coastal and mountainous locations.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through late evening as upper level short-waves continue to move overhead from low pressure over the Gulf. Patchy fog is expected to redevelop along the coastal areas again tonight. The next front moves across the Alaska Peninsula late tonight with the boundary spreading rain to Bristol Bay Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds will increase as the front quickly moves north to the Kuskokwim Delta early afternoon. The Kuskokwim Valley will not see much precipitation from this front as the occluded system pulls the boundary northwestward across the Bering, the eastward extent of the boundary shearing apart. Winds across much of the Valley will keep a light east to northeast flow, with only the Kuskokwim Mountains expected to see snow and gusty southeasterly flow.

The second front moves to the Southwest coast Sunday morning which will re-enforce gusty southeasterly flow and bring another round of light precipitation. The Kuskokwim Valley will again see a similar wind pattern across the region as the fast moving front follows a similar track as the first one. Winds and precipitation taper down late Monday night as the second surface low slowly fills as begins to drift east toward the gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). An active weather pattern is currently underway with the next storm system organizing south of the Central Aleutians. The low associated with this system rapidly deepens to 955 mb as it lifts across the Eastern Aleutians tonight. Storm force winds are expected around the core of the low through Saturday, then winds taper down with the system remaining nearly stationary and filling through Saturday night. Another low develops and moves north late Saturday night. This low crosses over the Alaska Peninsula to the Southern Bering early Sunday, but is kicked to the east Sunday night as yet another North pacific low races up to the Central Aleutians by Sunday evening. Precipitation will mainly be rain around the core of these next several systems, with mixed precipitation or snow across the northern and western areas of the Bering as these low keep a tap into the colder air mass over Kamchatka.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday). The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft advisories or gale warnings will be the norm as each storm system moves through. Forecast confidence with low and frontal positions is above average.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in decent agreement with the synoptic pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Thursday December 19th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one near the AKPEN and a Kamchatka low. There is a dome of high pressure between the two. There are some minor difference with the timing of two different cyclones but the forecast intensity is only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is very similar. Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska. All the while, the second storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the Aleutian chain. For Southcentral Alaska, temperatures will be near or slightly above normal. For the Anchorage metro area the chances of snow in this forecast period look very slim given the current run of the models.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 165 170 172>174. Gale Warning 119 120 125 130>132 136>138 150 155 160 171 175>180. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KH MARINE/LONG TERM . SB/PJS

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	21 mi	60 min	SW 4.1 G 5.1	41°F	43°F		994.4 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	76 mi	76 min	WNW 12 G 18	41°F	44°F	3 ft	994.6 hPa (+1.1)	40°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	77 mi	36 min	NE 33 G 39	43°F			994.6 hPa	39°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

Last 24hr

NE8 G11

NE10

NE12 G18

NE9 G14

NE9 G15

NE15 G22

NE12 G16

NE10 G19

NE11 G16

NE8 G11

NE8 G12

NE7 G12

NE4 G7

N3 G6

N8 G14

NE6 G11

W3

SE1

NE3 G6

SE1

NE2 G5

NE7 G12

NE2 G6

SW4

1 day ago

NE9 G14

NE9 G13

NE8 G13

NE12 G18

NE13 G19

NE12 G22

NE12 G18

NE11 G15

NE9 G12

NE11 G17

NE9 G15

NE11 G18

NE14 G24

NE12 G18

NE14 G20

NE14 G22

NE16 G25

NE16 G24

NE14 G25

NE16 G22

NE14 G20

NE14 G21

NE14 G20

NE10 G16

2 days ago

NE7 G11

NE6 G15

NE11 G15

NE9 G15

NE10 G19

NE13 G22

NE18 G24

NE16 G25

NE21 G31

NE25 G33

NE21 G31

NE21 G36

NE21 G34

NE23 G30

NE9 G22

NE11 G18

NE8 G13

NE8 G13

NE12 G18

NE8 G14

NE11 G17

NE12 G17

NE10 G13

NE8 G12

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK	20 mi	73 min	N 0	1.75 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	43°F	39°F	89%	994.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

Last 24hr

NE15

N14 G19

N14 G23

N12

N8 G22

N15 G24

N16 G22

N13 G22

N9 G15

5

N4

N7

NW6

NW7

NE7

N4

NW8

N7

N7

5

N6

N4

Calm

NW3

1 day ago

NE13

NE16

NE15

NE19 G25

NE16 G26

NE18 G22

NE17

NE12

NE19

NE18

N14

NE20 G27

NE20

NE22 G32

NE24

NE23 G32

NE24 G32

NE23

NE22 G28

N20 G30

N17 G24

NE21

NE18

NE13

2 days ago

E17

E18 G24

NE21

NE20 G29

NE20 G28

NE23 G30

NE21 G31

NE27 G33

NE27 G38

NE29 G38

NE30 G39

NE28 G39

NE29 G37

NE23 G29

NE20 G28

E17

NE15

NE17

NE14

NE18 G25

N18 G27

NE14

NE14

NE13

---

Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.