Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lions, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 231300 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 500 am akdt Fri aug 23 2019 Analysis and upper levels Two unphased upper level waves are moving east out of the area and into canada and the panhandle. The gulf low is moving into the panhandle, and a shortwave trough is moving across the northern copper river basin. The trough over the northern copper river basin will dig southwestward today, and will be the catalyst for any shower activity over southcentral this afternoon and evening. A separate upper level wave is moving south off the kuskokwim delta coast. Between all of these features is the axis of a broad upper level trough that is over all of southern mainland alaska. Ridging over kamchatka is producing northerly winds between the trough and the ridge over much of the bering. The north pacific jet remains aligned essentially straight west to east across the waters of the north pacific south of the aleutians and the gulf. Very little precipitation is being picked up on any of the radars this morning. Other than a few isolated showers over the aleutian range south and east of king salmon, all of the rest of southwest and southcentral are dry this morning. All of yesterday afternoon's mainland soundings show a very unstable atmosphere from the surface through 700 mb. This is helping mix any wildfire smoke through a big enough layer of atmosphere that the only dense smoke is in the area near the fires. Model discussion In a change from yesterday, all of the models, including the gfs, now agree that the upper level wave off the kuskokwim delta coast will in fact become a cut-off upper level low over the eastern aleutians by Saturday evening. The canadian is the fastest with moving the low into the gulf and reopening it into a trough as it does so. The other models keep the cutoff low near southern kodiak island into Sunday. Forecast challenges center around where the wildfire smoke moves and how dense it will get over the coming days. The wind speeds through the fires as the winds turn northerly may pose a challenge as well. The amount of shower activity this afternoon, if any, is also a point of low-certainty, namely regarding if anything measurable is seen outside of the mountains. Forecast confidence is a bit above average, with good large-scale model agreement and decent agreement on the aforementioned smaller scale forecast problems. Aviation Panc... MVFR smoke is expected to persist around the airport through the early morning, as south to southwest winds transport swan lake fire smoke into the area. By late morning, however, the winds through the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere will flip around to north to northwest. This should improve visibilities back toVFR. Haze from the much smaller fires in the susitna valley is not out of the question, but will not have any impacts. The northerly low-level winds will persist through the overnight and into Saturday. Scattered mountain showers will be possible in the afternoon and evening along the chugach, but are not expected at the airport, and were not included in the taf. Fire weather (southcentral) Winds will remain the primary influence on the fires across southcentral today. Temperatures and relative humidity values should be somewhat better than previous days, namely cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and higher relative humidity levels. The winds will turn out of the north today as a dry cold front moves through. It cannot be overstated that this upcoming wind shift will be nowhere near as strong and impactful as last week's wind storm. The strongest winds of up to 25 mph are only expected to impact the mountain gap areas in the western susitna valley, and out of the gaps that open to the gulf, such as resurrection bay and western prince william sound. Over the area wildfires, winds will be in the 10 to at most 15 mph range at any time today into Saturday. Another factor to consider will be precipitation chances over the coming days. With today's wind shift along with daytime heating, isolated showers are possible in the valleys this afternoon and evening, with scattered showers in the mountains. Isolated mountain showers are possible Saturday, then on Sunday will be another somewhat better chance of showers as an upper level wave moves across the area. Any of these showers have the potential to locally change wind directions in any rain-cooled air, and hopefully some move over the fires. .Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 today through Sunday night)... as a moderate strength low over the central gulf exits toward southeast alaska today, a broad and weak trough will drop down

from the north. Multiple short-waves will cross the region through Saturday, triggering some isolated to scattered diurnal convection primarily over the mountains. Valleys will see a few showers, but they will be few and far between and any rain that falls will be brief and light. Thus, dry conditions will persist across most of the region. As for the wind forecast, the combination of the exiting gulf low and arrival of the short-wave will lead to periods of gusty winds along the gulf coast and prince william sound. This includes seward resurrection bay, whittier passage canal, and the valdez coastal waters. Southerly flow overnight has brought smoke from the swan lake fire and low visibilities to anchorage. As the upper trough drops down today, low level flow will shift to northwesterly and smoke from the fire will track south and east across the interior kenai peninsula and down to seward and the gulf coast. A dense smoke advisory remains in effect for the interior kenai peninsula through early this afternoon. Assuming there is no change in amount of smoke being generated by the fire, this will likely need to be extended in time and area - to include moose pass down to seward. Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the first short-wave today, primarily along the alaska range. There will be a slight increase in winds across much of the susitna valley this evening through Saturday morning. However, this is not like last weekend's wind event; forcing is much, much weaker and winds will generally be in the 10 to 15 mph range with localized stronger gusts. Winds will lighten up across southcentral by Saturday afternoon. There is high uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday. Models are struggling with track of an upper level low moving in from the bering sea and whether this will impact southcentral or be confined to the gulf of alaska. Based on latest model trends have increased clouds for Sunday and included a broad-brush chance of showers. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3) A shortwave trough will dive southward through the eastern bering, and as its axis traverses the southwest mainland, showers are possible. In general, convective indices look weak but a thunderstorm or three can't be ruled out over the mountains. With decent northeast steering flow, it's possible a stray thunderstorm could make it into lower lying areas of bristol bay. Smoke will continue to be evident in port alsworth and levelock, and probably everywhere in between. The trough should bring some improvement. Whether the improvement is short-lived will depend on fire activity. In any case, quiet weather will return Saturday, with a cooling trend over the next few days as cold air advection persists behind the trough. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3) Mostly benign conditions are forecast over the bering as broad north flow persists over the next few days. Patchy fog is likely as cold air passes over warmer water. Of note, stronger north winds are expected out of bays and gaps in the eastern aleutians. Marine (days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday) Westerly flow will persist across the gulf through the long term period. There is increasing confidence that a low will develop south of the alaska peninsula Sunday and track eastward into the gulf of alaska Monday with small craft winds likely. A second, potentially stronger low forms in the north pacific and tracks northward into the gulf late Tuesday. Currently, there is low confidence in the track and strength of this second low. Meanwhile in the bering, a ridge of high pressure remains in place through Tuesday ahead of an incoming low entering the western bering by Wednesday. .Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)... the general long-term pattern consists of an upper level longwave trough draped over the state with an upper level ridge building over the bering. An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the southern mainland with cloudy skies and showery conditions in store for early next week. A new feature of note is a north pacific low that approaches the gulf of alaska as early as Tuesday, though model solutions disagree on the position and track of this low through the end of the week. One main steering factor for the low's track will be a ridge building over the alcan border Thursday. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121. Flood advisory: 121 125. Marine... Gale warning: 352. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw southcentral alaska... Seb southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm marine long term... Ko

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	21 mi	68 min	ENE 1 G 9.9	67°F	59°F		1002.5 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	76 mi	72 min	SW 16 G 18	56°F	56°F	2 ft	1003.9 hPa (+0.0)	53°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	77 mi	32 min	N 8 G 14	61°F			1001.7 hPa	48°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK	20 mi	69 min	W 11	10.00 mi	Fair	67°F	45°F	45%	1002.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Kizhuyak Point, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.