Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Juneau, AK

SHORT TERM
Forecast remains largely on track across southeast Alaska this Saturday morning. Satellite imagery gives a great look at the drier air that has rotated around the relatively stagnant low west of Haida Gwaii, leading to clear skies overnight Friday across most of the eastern gulf and the inner channels from Dixon entrance all the way to the Icy Strait corridor and southern Lynn Canal. As a result, many areas saw lower minimum temperatures, approaching freezing in Hoonah. Despite this drier air, a few holdouts did still manage to develop fog early this morning.
Yakutat saw shallow patchy fog advect through the area, while Klawock had some very localized shallow fog develop and advect directly into the vicinity of the airport. IN both cases, daytime heating and subsequent turbulent mixing will dissipate this fog through the morning hours with rapid improvement in visibilities.

Winds across the inner channels will remain relatively light and variable in most places, with sea breezes to develop in the afternoon under the clear skies. Widespread daytime maximum temperatures of low to mid 60s abound. Far northern panhandle near Haines and Skagway once again will see the possibility of showers as convection develops over BC and easterly flow aloft advects them into the region. Only other precipitation to speak of will be for southern Prince of Wales Island, as the stagnant low in the southern gulf gets an impulse of energy and swings a band of showers into the area late Saturday night into Sunday.

LONG TERM
/Sunday into next weekend/...The overall trend next week is looking like drier and warmer weather is on the way to SE AK.

Key Messages: -Lingering low in the gulf will keep rain and rain showers in the forecast early next week.
-Evidence is increasing that drier, sunnier, and much warmer temps are on the way for late next week.
-Highs in the upper 60s to 70s around the area are likely.
-Wind speeds look to be on the lighter side late in the week.

Details: A stationary closed low at 500mb, just off the coast of Haida Gwaii, will continue to persist and give SE AK chances for rain.
This feature will regain some energy from fujiwhara interaction with another system that will consolidate and strengthen the low, which will send a new front into the southern panhandle by Monday.
By and large, we expect winds to remain near moderate to fresh breezes near southern Clarence Strait with much lighter winds everywhere else. Along with freshening up of the winds in the south, expect some moisture to move into the area Monday, bringing light rain and clouds to the panhandle. Expect cloudy and wet conditions into Wednesday before a pattern change brings a ridge of high pressure into the gulf.

As this ridge builds, warm temperatures will move into the region for later in the week and the weekend. Dry conditions with temperatures making it into the upper 60s to 70s will be found across the region.

AVIATION

Overall very little change to the overall aviation message going forward with the 18z TAFs. Vertically stacked low remains entrenched across the eastern Gulf this morning, with moisture continuing to stream in from the east from Canada. One change is the moisture continuing to push northward as a band of BKN to OVC at around 8000 ft. Expecting to see a resurgence of moisture over the Skagway/Haines area for more clouds AOB 3000 ft with the slight chance of rain showers. There is the low chance for a BKN layer developing in the northern panhandle, predominantly near Haines, but confidence was not high enough to include in the current TAF.

Predominate VFR conditions continue for the panhandle with the SCT layer mostly burning off this morning. Significant change to the Yakutat TAF as recent observations and satellite imagery has shifted thought process to much better conditions for today. There is still the threat of fog tonight, which is currently not represented in the taf due to uncertainty with the resurgence of eastern moisture from Canada. Currently expecting MVFR clouds AOB 1500 ft associated with the moisture from Canada to overtake any fog development moving over the TAF site.

Winds should remain around 12kts or less with isolated gusts up to 20kts possible during afternoon seabreeze, going near calm and variable once more through Saturday night.

MARINE
Outside: Main story is the weak closed low bringing fresh breezes to the coast of Prince of Wales Island, which will continue through Saturday night. One chance to the forecast is the lighter winds along the NE gulf coast with higher confidence that low clouds will descend to the surface as widespread fog. Expect these conditions to last through the morning hours.

Inside: Moderate Breezes in Clarence Strait will diminish into the evening hours with the weakening surface low off the coast of Prince of Wales Island. Otherwise mostly light winds through Saturday night. Not expecting much fog for the inner channels due to slight warm air advection, resulting in a low cloud deck rather than surface fog.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.