Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Juneau, AK

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A marine layer will gradually push back inland across most of the panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday.

- A stronger low pressure system will approach the Kenai Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds and building seas across the northeast Gulf.

SHORT TERM...Relatively benign day and tomorrow, with a building ridge aloft, high pressure in the eastern gulf, and some clearing in the southern portion of the panhandle. Surface to 700 mb is mostly saturated with weak, westerly flow in the Icy Strait area to NE gulf coast. Therefore keeping at least slight rain chances in for Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Gustavus as the most likely candidates for any accumulating rainfall. Yakutat has a much higher likelihood for accumulating rainfall, with more consistent southwesterlies and orographic lifting. For Juneau, Haines, and Skagway, expecting weak flow to primarily come over as clouds rather than rain, due to downsloping after the Chilkat Range.

Going into Tuesday night, a front sweeps across the area, primarily impacting the northern half of the panhandle. This front is pushing into primarily northwest flow aloft and ridging, so not looking to be a guaranteed rain maker outside of Yakutat. As for Yakutat, backing off on rain totals through Wednesday to around a half to three quarters inch totals. Due to the ridge, a bulk of the rain is expected to stay west of the Yakutat area.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Saturday/
A ridge remains over the gulf through the long term period with a few disturbances moving into the NE gulf coast. The first of these lows, in the long term period, will move northward into the NE gulf late Thursday into Friday. This will mainly bring rain to the Yakutat area and westward, with highest rain totals remaining west of the panhandle. Currently, rain 24 hour rain totals still remain low over the Yakutat area with less than 1 inch most likely. This will also bring increased winds into the NE gulf, especially near Cape Suckling with winds becoming southeasterly and increasing to 20 to 30 kts. Winds will once again become widespread northwesterly across the gulf late Friday into Saturday. The rest of the panhandle will remain on the drier side, with a slight chance of rain showers through the week. Late in the work week, into the start of the weekend, temperatures will likely increase across the area. Highest temperatures will be located across the southern portions of the panhandle, especially near Hyder. On Friday, 850 mb temperatures indicate an increase to 12 to 14 C over POW, Ketchikan, and Annette. Over Hyder, 850 temperatures increase to the upper teens with 20 C possible just east of the area. Hyder has a 70 to 80% chance of reaching a high temperatures in the 80s on friday with a 20 to 30% chance of hitting 90 degrees F.

AVIATION...VFR conditions continue for most areas of the panhandle. The exception is the area along the outer coast from Yakutat to Cross Sound, and inland to Hoonah and Gustavus where ceilings have been as low as 1400 to 2500 ft this evening. Marine layer clouds are expected to persist tonight allowing for ceilings to drop again for areas that saw lowered ceilings Monday morning down to MVFR or even IFR. Some potential visibility reductions can not be ruled out, especially for places like Yakutat were the marine layer was down to IFR/LIFR conditions Monday morning. Most other places should stay VFR tonight with some expansion of the marine layer being possible. Expect most areas that did see MVFR conditions tonight to improve again to VFR tomorrow before most of the same areas that saw lower conditions Tuesday morning to start to see lower ceilings into Tuesday evening. Highest surface winds continue to be observed in northern Lynn and Skagway area with S wind to 10 to 20 kt that will persist into Tuesday.

MARINE...

Inside waters: For today and tomorrow, expecting winds to largely be dominant by thermal and leeside troughing in British Columbia and the Yukon respectively. Most prominently, Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait are the most likely candidates for winds greater than 15 knots, with a small craft advisory for Taiya Inlet specifically through this evening.

Outside: Largely northwesterly flow with low clouds and occasional fog dominate the short term forecast with winds up to 20 knots along the western coast from Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance.
Winds will largely shift south to southeasterly as an incoming front approaches from the west on Tuesday night. Expecting to see a barrier jet develop along the NE gulf coast, with sustained wind speeds hitting gale force by 10 PM at the latest near Cape Suckling. Not expecting this jet to last long, as by Wednesday morning, winds look to transition back to a westerly, southwesterly pattern.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ672.