Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hoonah, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 072355 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 255 PM AKST Sat Dec 7 2024

SHORT TERM
The weather over the next 24 hours continues to improve as the low that brought rain to the central and southern regions moves into B.C this afternoon. Primary threat overnight for marine and aviation is dense fog and/or low clouds developing as winds lighten and a potent ridge at 500mb begins to move into the Panhandle. For now, current forecast reflects the most concern for central and southern region for dense fog, with an advisory out from 9pm Saturday to 9am Sunday. When fog burns off Sunday, expect mostly dry conditions; however, as mentioned in previous discussions some positive vorticity advection embedded in a shortwave downstream of the ridge axis could drive some very light showers. Make some time to get outside and enjoy the break.

Attention turns to a hurricane force low currently ejecting into the Bering Sea, which will push an occluded front into the coastal waters and drive elevated ESE gale force winds along our northern coast by late Monday morning. More details in the long range.

LONG TERM
Mid and extended forecast features a gradual change in the overall weather pattern through the week. We start off with a ridge aloft over the west coast of North America with a broad trough over the Bering Sea area. This entire pattern shifts east through late week eventually shifting the Pacific storm track from the Bering Sea area back to the Gulf of Alaska with overall flow turning S or SW from the W or NW it was earlier in the week.

At the surface, the mid range starts out quiet for the panhandle, but conditions are already starting to deteriorate out in the gulf as winds from the next front coming in from the west will already be increasing across the gulf waters. Guidance is still indicated that timing of the front is slower with most of the precip and winds not making the panhandle until Tuesday night. The front will also be weakening as it comes trying to overcome the ridging over the panhandle, so winds and precip are not expected to be overly excessive except for gales in the gulf waters.

Of more concern is the front coming in behind the first on Wednesday which will be stronger and wetter, but also faster moving. Gales are again expected for the gulf waters, but will also affect the southern panhandle and outer coast just as much.
Rain will also be more prolific with the 50th percentile of 24 hour rainfall maxing out around 1 inch for the southern panhandle and outer coast Wednesday (90th percentile is around 2 inches, while 10th percentile is around 0.3 inches for the same time period) though depending on frontal totals may be higher or lower.

Post frontal showers take over Thursday into Friday with a cooler air mass wrapping in from the Bering Sea. May be cold enough to switch the northern panhandle to snow by Friday. Uncertain forecast after that point, but general trends are starting to point to another cold air mass dropping south out of Canada that may bring some outflow winds for next weekend. However, the Pacific storm track is still mostly aimed in our general direction, and is still sending storms toward the southern panhandle at the same time, so what we get will likely be determined by which side (cold or warm) wins out next weekend.
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