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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 338 Pm Akst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory through Wednesday...
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Rain showers.
Wed..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
Wed night..SE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 060051 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 351 PM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

SHORT TERM
/ Through Wednesday night / Large low in the gulf weakening and drifting north is spinning and rotating showers through the panhandle and coastal waters. The largest collection from Tuesday are moving out of the area into Northwest Canada.
There is another band to rotate into the northern portion of the panhandle that is associated with an inner band on the low.

Cooler air which has wrapped around the low from the Bering and through the long wave trough around the upper level low will be moving back to the southeast gulf waters through Wednesday and the conditional instability the atmosphere has with the cold air over warm water has a chance of quickly developing into stronger convection with isolated thunderstorms.

Winds over SE AK are a little gusty due to the showers and pressure gradient driven winds interacting. Do anticipate that the weather through Wednesday and Wednesday night will improve.
Winds will diminish as well and QPF rainfall amounts tapering off.


LONG TERM
/Thursday through Sunday/...Little change to the forecast going forward; however uncertainty with the weekend system.

Beginning the midrange on Thursday, a surface low continues to decay in the northern gulf, sending onshore flow towards the panhandle.
While showers and 15-20 knot winds will persist through Thursday morning, it look to be on the downward trend through Thursday evening. On Friday, guidance agrees on a shortwave trough pushing into the north half of the panhandle and the NE gulf coast.
Southerly moist flow with the diminishing temperatures over the week will likely mean more snow for the northern panhandle. Due to a tightening gradient, its likely to see the southerly push go all the way up Lynn Canal and keep Haines and Skagway winds easterly and southerly respectively. Due to the stronger southerly component and warmer air, increased the QPF amounts but kept precipitation type as rain and snow. It will likely accumulate, but due to warm low layers, tempered snow snow amounts down to reflect very heavy, wet snow for the Haines and Klondike Highway.

Then Saturday is where the fun begins. Guidance is slowly converging on a possible solution for a fast developing, strong low pushing up from the south. Unfortunately, at this time, there are still positional issues for the low that have drastic implications on how impactful this system will be. Two scenarios appear to be becoming clear, backed up by ensemble and deterministic models.

On one hand is the deterministic GFS, with good run consistency between the 6z, 12z, and 18z runs, where the low system passes just north of Haida Gwaii and pushes eastward into Canada, bypassing the panhandle entirely. Under this scenario, stronger northerly outflow winds will kick up across the north bringing colder temperatures and possibly some clearing skies. The southern panhandle will experience some stronger, yet brief, rainfall rates. Petersburg and northward will also experience some snowfall, but largely cut short from the lack of moisture working its way northward. Some ensemble members also support this notion of low position and track, but so far, it is the unlikely scenario.

The far more likely scenario, supported with ensemble means in the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS along with good run to run consistency of the 0z and 12z EC, is a developing low moving directly north of the Sitka area, then inland into the Yukon. Under this scenario, there is an increasing likelihood of stronger winds, up to storm force, for the entire panhandle, inside waters, and near shore waters up to cross sound. Furthermore, as the low passes into the Yukon, a strong punch of southerly winds up the north south facing channels will likely follow its exit from the panhandle. Additionally, more moisture will be able to work its way northward into colder air. At this time, it looks too close to call for significant snow accumulations, with ranges from the Icy Strait Corridor anywhere from 2 to 11 inches.
Similarly wide ranges can be said about temperatures as well, as if this scenario plays out, a strong southerly push will likely transition any falling snow to rain. Ultimately, kept the forecast largely the same for the Saturday system due to the large uncertainty. As time gets closer, details will become increasingly clear. Check back for updates regarding this potentially impactful system.

AVIATION
Conditions remain relatively unchanged from the morning TAF period as southerly flow continues to bring showers to the majority of the panhandle. VFR conditions between showers with conditions dropping to MVFR and potentially IFR due to VIS drops in heavier showers. Isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility for the central and southern panhandle through the afternoon hours. LLWS is expected to persist through Tuesday night into Wednesday with surface winds beginning to slacken by Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE
Gales on the outside waters fading way to strong small craft levels. Higher residual seas will subside through the next couple of days. The change is that the southern outer waters has a a chance of isolated thunderstorms near the coast from roughly south of the Sitka and around to Dixon Entrance. Did not spread them inland or into the inner channels.

HYDROLOGY
Still have a flood advisory for the Ward Lake recreational area into tonight. The water level at the Lake Connell Dam that we use for guidance in this area is continuing to be just below the Minor Flood stage. Waters levels should subside overnight.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
Strong Wind through Wednesday morning for AKZ319.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323-329.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-641>644-661>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034>036-053- 651-652-671-672.

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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM AKST     3.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM AKST     12.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:04 PM AKST     6.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:12 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM AKST     10.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet

Lincoln Island
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Tue -- 12:20 AM AKST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM AKST     13.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:11 PM AKST     6.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:13 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:10 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:57 PM AKST     11.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet

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