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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 341 Am Akst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less then 3 ft. Rain and snow early in the morning.
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 100042 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 342 PM AKST Sat Dec 9 2023

SHORT TERM
/through Sunday night/...It's been an active Saturday in SE AK. Passing low pressure brought strong winds parts of the southern panhandle. While reported wind gusts didn't reach 50 to 60 mph, the sustained winds over the marine waters were quite impressive with sustained winds upwards of 40 to 45 knots.

On the north side of the low, snow has been falling along Icy Strait and north. Upwards of 4 to 7 inches of snow has been reported with reports still trickling in, thanks to everyone who has sent in reports!

Going forward, as the low moves eastward, the snow on the north side of the low will continue through the evening. But as drier air moves in, snowfall and rain rates will decrease. That being said, lingering showers are possible through Sunday due to the onshore flow.

After the low moves out, a quick moving ridge builds in, so winds should lighten up with some folks seeing decreasing clouds.

Sunday night into next week, the next front approaching, bringing back the precip, clouds, and wind.

LONG TERM
/Monday through Friday/...Little change to the mid range forecast next week as ensemble model guidance as well as deterministic models continue to trend towards an active pattern ridging over the panhandle into British Columbia and troughing over the Alaska Peninsula and NW gulf. Continuing from the short range, some general clearing remains possible for the southern panhandle Sunday into Monday ahead of the next impactful system.

With the above mentioned synoptic setup, widespread gale force winds will develop throughout the gulf with a front sweeping across into the NE gulf coast. Confidence continues to grow that this feature will also bring a weak to moderate AR event to the central and southern panhandle, with IVT values of 500 or more for an extended period. Model guidance is trending towards the northern panhandle and gulf coast seeing the first surge of moisture with the initial gale force front the second half of Monday, before a secondary stronger surge impacts the central and southern panhandle early Tuesday lasting into early Wednesday. 12 and 24 hour rainfall totals for this secondary surge are continuing to show the potential to exceed 10 and in some cases 25 year return intervals. This will likely lead to some rises in streams and rivers in the central and southern panhandle. Overall this is expected to be a rain event due to rising snow levels ahead of and during the heaviest precipitation. However, the northern panhandle, particularly at higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike Highways, could see moderate snow accumulation initially before a likely transition to mix or even straight rain.

Once again, the main focus of this event remains the above mentioned widespread heavy rain potential, strong winds will likely develop in the gulf along the coastal waters and potentially reach further inland at higher elevations, as well as push northward along Chatham and Clarence Straits. With the ridge in the interior and the low spinning over the northwest gulf, a tight gradient will set up and persist over the southern panhandle during this timeframe as well, leading to strong gale force southerly winds pushing northward from Hecate Strait up into Clarence Strait with the potential to reach storm force. Therefore strong winds would also be expected for southern Prince of Wales as well as Annette Island and Ketchikan for this time period. Stay tuned for further updates to this evolving situation as we head into next week.

AVIATION
MVFR to occasional IFR expected most areas tonight as the low near Port Alexander moves northeast. Snow mostly north of a line from Elfin Cove to Juneau with a mix just south and rain across the southern Panhandle in the warmer sector. This results in periods of the lowest visibilities and ceilings around Gustavus and Juneau this evening. As the low starts to fill/weaken, the snowfall rates between Hoonah, Gustavus, Juneau and Haines are expected to drop off after 05Z. To the south, in the area of stronger winds closer to the low pressure center, wind is the main concern this evening within the lowest 2 thousand feet AGL, with a short period of LLWS in for Klawock and Ketchikan. Winds down there should drop off precipitously after 03Z as the pressure gradient relaxes as the low fills.

MARINE
Area of low pressure moves inland through the southern Panhandle while weakening this evening. As the low moves inland, wind directions, near the center of the low, will swing from the southeast to the northwest as the low tracks through. Then, a quick moving ridge of high pressure passes over tomorrow, which should bring decreasing wind speeds and an overall shift in direction to the south/southeast.

Seas should also subside as the low weakens and moves farther inland. So wave heights in the gulf will go from 10 to 15 feet to 7 to 10 feet by Sunday afternoon.

Incoming series of fronts early next week will bring increased wind speeds again and increasing wave heights.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033>035-053-643-644-651- 652-663-664-671-672.

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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:38 AM AKST     3.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:35 AM AKST     15.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:27 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:08 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:22 PM AKST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:41 PM AKST     13.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet

Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:45 AM AKST     4.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM AKST     16.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:29 PM AKST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:51 PM AKST     14.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet

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