Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 112348 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 248 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

SHORT TERM. A gale force front continues to buffet parts of the outer coast and even portions of the inner channels with strong wind gusts as of this afternoon. At least one 50 kt gust was recorded - at Tenakee Springs - earlier today. As the front continues to rotate about the parent low - located over the southwest Gulf - it will weaken and shear apart. This will allow winds to diminish steadily through this short range forecast period. Small craft conditions will persist over the eastern Gulf through Friday, but the inner channels will relax much sooner. By Thursday afternoon, the last remaining small craft winds over Icy Strait and Cross Sound will end.

A second wrap of moisture associated with the parent low will keep precipitation going over Southeast Alaska so the first possible widespread break in snow/rain will not come until this next weekend. COlder low level air will begin to advect in from the west Thursday evening and lower snow levels. This combined with persistent precipitation is expected to produce accumulating snow at lower elevations over much of the northern Panhandle and the coast mountains all the way down to Hyder. Heaviest snowfall will occur Thursday night and be focused on the Haines area and Haines Highway. This is when and where maximum Omega values intersect the snow growth zone in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Have issued a winter weather advisory for 4 to 6 inches of snow as a result. Significant snowfall is expected for the Skagway area as well and Omega values there peak shortly after those in the Haines area - on Friday morning. Accumulating snow will likely continue on Friday morning, but snowfall rates should fall below advisory levels by then. Cannot rule out an advisory for Skagway as well, but confidence in snow totals was not high enough to include that zone in the advisory at this time. Subsequent shifts will have to look closely as newer model data is received.

Forecast confidence in the short range is average. to slightly above average.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Wednesday night/ . The extended range forecast begins with a weakening upper low in the western gulf. An upper ridge near the Aleutians will shift east over the Panhandle by Sunday morning. With a split flow pattern setting up for the end of the weekend into early next week, models do not have a good handle on the overall weather pattern. Throughout next week, multiple lows look to move into the gulf which will influence the weather over the Panhandle. What does appear to be relatively certain is wet weather will persist through most, if not all, of the coming week.

No major changes were made to the long range forecast tonight due to poor model agreement for much of next week. Guidance does indicate that there will be low level cold air advection from the west through the weekend. The forecast reflects model guidance by showing a cooling trend through Monday with temperatures remaining around average next week. Since there is little agreement among the models, a slight change to one aspect of the forecast will greatly affect the rest of the forecast. Temperatures have an effect on snow levels, which in turn, have an effect on the probability of snow rather than rain for the next week. Current thinking is that the northern Panhandle has the best chance at seeing frozen precipitation, especially along the highways. The southern Panhandle is expected to see predominantly rain moving into the weekend and next week. Fortunately, several days remain before this becomes an issue with impacts on the public, so it can be studied closely by multiple shifts.

Overall long range forecast confidence is below average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027-028. Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ023. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ019. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033-035-036-053.



Fritsch/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK	4 mi	39 min	NNE 14 G 18	40°F			997.1 hPa	37°F
PTLA2	8 mi	17 min	N 9.9 G 13	40°F			995.4 hPa	39°F
NKXA2	12 mi	17 min	ENE 20 G 28	41°F			994.5 hPa	37°F
LIXA2	12 mi	17 min	N 16 G 24	41°F			994.7 hPa	37°F
MVXA2	15 mi	17 min	SSE 1.9 G 4.1	36°F			996.8 hPa	33°F
SCXA2	19 mi	17 min	N 16 G 19	40°F			993.7 hPa	40°F
RIXA2	19 mi	17 min	N 28 G 36	42°F			992.7 hPa	38°F
MXXA2	25 mi	17 min	W 8 G 16	36°F			996.2 hPa	34°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK	26 mi	27 min	NE 6 G 18	44°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK	26 mi	49 min	SW 1.9 G 8.9	38°F	42°F		996.9 hPa (-2.7)
AJXA2	27 mi	17 min	W 6 G 8.9	37°F			995.8 hPa	32°F
JLXA2	27 mi	26 min	SE 4.1 G 8.9	37°F			995.5 hPa	32°F
JMLA2	28 mi	17 min	WSW 5.1 G 8.9	38°F			996.1 hPa	36°F
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK	28 mi	21 min	NW 4.1 G 6	39°F			996 hPa	39°F
MRNA2	36 mi	17 min	WNW 1.9 G 4.1	38°F			996.8 hPa	33°F
PAXA2	41 mi	26 min	NNW 2.9 G 8	40°F			994.2 hPa	37°F
PBPA2 - Point Bishop, AK	42 mi	39 min	ESE 2.9 G 6	40°F			996.9 hPa	37°F
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK	42 mi	25 min	N 14 G 18	41°F			998.9 hPa	35°F
GUXA2	45 mi	17 min	SSE 1.9 G 2.9	40°F			993.9 hPa	39°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK	48 mi	17 min	ENE 15 G 27	41°F			993.9 hPa	37°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK	16 mi	1.9 hrs	SW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	37°F	36°F	96%	997.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJN

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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