Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 302251 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 251 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2020

SHORT TERM. With a decaying low situated over the central gulf and moist southeast flow directed across Southeast Alaska, our region has endured mostly cloudy skies with a few showers passing along the coast and the Coast Mountains. With much warmer air along with much the same upper level dynamics to our east, moist and unstable air has sparked a few thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon. But none look to cross the international border.

Successive disturbances rotating around the main low center, at first tonight, then a stronger one associated with a front on Sunday, in turn progressively yield more expansive shower activity across our region. All told, precipitation amounts should be light and amount to no more than a tenth to one-half inch Monday. High temperatures should also fall a bit Sunday as they settle back into the 50s region-wide. While south winds do increase a bit tonight through Sunday through the Inner Channels, we hold off on small craft advisories until a much stronger system arrives to welcome June.

The responsible gulf low opens into a trough by late Sunday and clears the northern Panhandle by Monday morning. Mean flow becomes much more southerly at this point at both mid and low levels. Therefore, we expect showers to become more widespread, especially across the north where orographics are maximized.

A new gale force system arrives with North Pacific jet support on its heels for Tuesday. This system carries with it warmer air and more subtropical moisture that re-stabilizes the atmosphere Tuesday. Therefore, we expect precipitation to quickly become steadier rains. From midnight Monday morning to midnight Tuesday morning we expect rainfall amounts of around a half to one inch, and there could be some periods of moderate rainfall over the south. While flooding is not expected, area rivers, creeks, and lakes should respond with rises from Sunday into Monday. With greater rain rates come lower high temperatures. In fact, highs will barely hit the lower 50s in most locations, and we have even held temperatures back into the high 40s on Prince of Wales Island where some of the heaviest amounts will fall. Winds will also present concerns. They rise quickly across the gulf Monday morning to 35 to 40 kt gales by Monday afternoon. We lowered wind speeds through the Inner Channels ahead of presumed more stable and stratified winds. But we do fully expect 25 to 30 kt winds to develop through the southern Inner Channels. Baranof and Prince of Wales Islands, the southern Inner Channels, and quite possibly the Upper Lynn Canal region could experience gusty conditions along with a chilly rain.

Forecast confidence is generally high, as there has been consistent synoptic guidance with these systems for several days. New guidance provided some subtle shifts in the forecast.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through Saturday/ With onshore flow firmly entrenched, precip will begin to become more organized and robust over the panhandle through Tuesday as a trough associated with the low moves through the region. This should result in some wetting rain, however highest totals currently look to be in the south around Hydaburg and Ketchikan, with heaviest rain seeming likely Tuesday morning. These projections are based on the current forecast and will very much be scrutinized several more times for future forecast packages as the event draws closer. After the trough passes through, onshore flow will remain in place for most of the week which will continue to promote cloudy skies and chances for precip across the panhandle. Near the end of the week, some model guidance is hinting at a break from the rainy conditions, particularly further north with the low breaking up. However, don't go planning a picnic yet as at that far out, enough discrepancy between the models exists that confidence is very low.

Forecaster's preference of models was a blend of the ECMWF/GFS for the Mon-Tue event. Afterwards, changes were minimal and were based mainly on WPC guidance. Forecast confidence in that a decent rain and coastal wind event is likely for the Mon-Tue time frame is increasing. Beyond that point, forecast certainty drops off precipitously.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



JWA/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK	4 mi	63 min	NW 1.9 G 2.9	63°F			1008.6 hPa	54°F
PTLA2	8 mi	41 min	WNW 5.1 G 6	60°F			1007.2 hPa	49°F
NKXA2	12 mi	41 min	SSW 8.9 G 14	54°F			1006.9 hPa	47°F
LIXA2	12 mi	41 min	NE 4.1 G 6	59°F			1006.4 hPa	52°F
MVXA2	15 mi	41 min	NW 4.1 G 8	61°F			1006.1 hPa	45°F
SCXA2	19 mi	40 min	S 2.9 G 4.1	58°F			1005.5 hPa
RIXA2	19 mi	41 min	E 11 G 15	54°F			1006.2 hPa	48°F
MXXA2	25 mi	41 min	ENE 8.9 G 13	59°F			1005.7 hPa	44°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK	26 mi	51 min	SE 6 G 14	59°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK	26 mi	73 min	SE 9.9 G 11	57°F	47°F		1008.5 hPa
AJXA2	27 mi	41 min	SE 12 G 14	56°F			1007 hPa	46°F
JLXA2	27 mi	40 min	SE 6 G 13	60°F			1004.8 hPa	41°F
JMLA2	28 mi	41 min	ESE 16 G 18	57°F			1007.9 hPa	43°F
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK	28 mi	47 min	SSE 8 G 8	58°F			1007.8 hPa	49°F
MRNA2	36 mi	41 min	ENE 8 G 9.9	55°F			1005.9 hPa	48°F
PAXA2	41 mi	40 min	SE 7 G 11	57°F			1005.9 hPa	47°F
PBPA2 - Point Bishop, AK	42 mi	63 min	Calm G 1.9	57°F			1008.4 hPa	45°F
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK	42 mi	49 min	Calm G 0	65°F			1009.2 hPa	51°F
GUXA2	45 mi	41 min	SW 6 G 9.9	56°F			1006.5 hPa	48°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK	48 mi	41 min	E 8.9 G 11	60°F			1007 hPa	38°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK	16 mi	20 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	62°F	43°F	50%	1008 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJN

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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