Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gustavus, AK

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages: - Slightly stronger winds are occurring across N Lynn Canal this afternoon into this evening.

- Isolated showers continue across SE AK through mid week.

- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are anticipated for this weekend as an area of high pressure remains over the gulf.

SHORT TERM...A ridge in the gulf is bringing breezy westerly winds into the panhandle, turning northwesterly in the southern panhandle and turning southerly through Lynn Canal. This onshore flow is also continuing isolated to scattered shower potential for the panhandle, which will last through Wednesday before shifting more over the northern panhandle for Thursday. A mid- level low moving into the panhandle through Wednesday afternoon may bring a period of more organized showers and overcast skies through the panhandle, though the far southern panhandle may be able to avoid this and clear out through the day. Widespread clearing will attempt to take hold Thursday, though the periods of showers will make it hard for the northern panhandle to completely follow. Only light, wetting rainfall is expected with these showers, and they may be weak enough to not make it all the way through the panhandle to the interior.

With the potential for clearing skies, daytime high temperatures will be able to increase to mid to high 60s going into the weekend. The northern panhandle will most likely see high 50s to low 60s through this period with the continued shower potential and cloud cover. Diurnal sea breezes will be able to develop through the day for locations that see significant clearing and warming, and fog potential will increase for locations that stay clear overnight and reach cooler nighttime low temperatures. The main location expected to see some fog development is around Petersburg and in Frederick Sound, but with the building ridge off the coast, a dense marine layer pushing into outer coastal communities is not out of the question.

LONG TERM
/Friday through Monday/
As the ridge builds Friday, a marine layer will set up just offshore of Baranof down the coastline to western parts of Prince of Wales. Skies begin clearing further inland over the southern panhandle sooner than the rest of the panhandle from the offshore northwesterly flow.
With the ridge in place bringing a trend of clearing skies into late week, some periods of fog cannot be ruled out.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the low-to- mid 70s. Temperatures aloft don't look too warm (<15 C at 850 mb), so the highest temperatures are expected outside of our area.

Some areas may see sea breezes set up Friday and this weekend as clouds decrease and temperatures increase. Most areas will see fairly light winds this weekend, but some stronger northwesterly winds (20-25 kts) in the eastern Gulf are expected as the high pressure will lead to a stronger pressure gradient, particularly along the coast of PoW to near Haida Gwaii. As of now, conditions look to be near small craft advisory criteria. Monday, a weak low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf. This will decrease temperatures and increase rain chances into next Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION...Isolated showers and lowered ceilings continue across the panhandle this evening as an area of high pressure moves into with on-shore flow across the panhandle. Flight conditions remain predominately MVFR to low-end VFR with CIGs AoB 5000ft with persistent SW- ly on-shore winds. Conditions are expected to remain low this evening with low end MVFR conditions for the overnight hours.
Broken to overcast skies will continue into Wednesday, but flight conditions should start to improve improve after 18z Wednesday, similar to today, with higher confidence of VFR flight conditions returning into Wednesday afternoon for the S Panhandle terminals.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Weak ridging over the gulf has been shifting over the coast through the day, allowing for westerly flow to continue. Seeing westerly fresh breezes in the southern gulf, bringing pockets of strong breezes near Cape Decision and through Dixon Entrance. These winds will continue to shift southeast overnight, persisting through Wednesday in Dixon Entrance before northwesterly winds increase along the coast again through Thursday as the ridging builds. 5 to 6 ft wave heights will decrease as the winds shift Wednesday, but increase again along the coast with the building ridge. Southwesterly 3 ft swell at a period of 8 to 10 ft swell continues.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh breezes are continuing through the inner channels through Tuesday afternoon, with the Icy Strait Corridor seeing westerly winds, Clarence Strait seeing northwesterly winds, and Lynn Canal seeing southerly winds. Areas of Northern Lynn Canal, specifically Taiya Inlet, have seen winds increase to strong breezes throughout the day. A majority of the panhandle will see winds diminish overnight, though Northern Lynn Canal may stay somewhat elevated at a moderate breeze overnight.
Winds will persist like this through Wednesday before the area of ridging in the gulf begins to build more, turning winds to a northwesterly direction for the end of the week. Sea breezes will begin to pick up for areas along the water seeing clearing skies, but are not expected to be very strong with periods of showers still possible. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are expected, decreasing in areas of light winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.