Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gustavus, AK

SHORT TERM
Snow showers continue to stream across the central and northern Panhandle, with the heaviest along the Icy Strait corridor. This is a separate and weaker system ahead of a much stronger low that will quickly move into the southern Panhandle Sunday morning through Monday. For the southern panhandle, anticipating generally 3 to 6 inches of snowfall, with a transition to a rain/snow mix to eventually all rain along the coastal communities by Sunday afternoon. Further north, precipitation will stay snow along and north of a line from Tenakee Springs to Angoon over to Stephens Passage. Current forecast is around 6 to 14 inches, with the highest amounts along the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau.
Heaviest snowfall rates for Juneau, Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs are expected by Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
Simply put, plan for 4 to 14 inches of snow by Monday afternoon across the panhandle, with the highest snowfall accumulations across the central and northern Panhandle. For the southern panhandle, one complication is the changeover timing from snow to rain south of Sumner Strait Sunday afternoon; on one hand we have significant warm air advection, on the other, heavy precipitation rates which will drive snow down to the surface. Current forecast holds on to the heavy precip rates, keeping snow around for longer, but we will see all rain across the south by late Sunday afternoon for sea level locations around Prince of Wales and Ketchikan/Metlakatla. This will lead to a rain on snow event as moisture continues to stream into the southern Panhandle through Monday.

In addition to the snow, another incoming hazard with this system will be a short duration of strong to high winds with gusts up to 60 mph by Sunday afternoon and evening as the front pushes inland. There was strong agreement that the low will push northeast pushing just west of Baranof Island allowing strongest winds to be along the gulf coast and southern panhandle. Not anticipating these level of winds to make it as far north as the Icy Strait Corridor, but can't rule out gusts near 40 mph as the low moves northwest, late Sunday into Monday, eventually settling in the far northern gulf.

LONG TERM
After this storm system dissipates Monday evening, an active snow pattern continues through next week as a large low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska sends persistent but intermittent bands of snow showers across the area. Snowfall accumulations will be highly variable Tuesday onward, but forecasters cannot rule out some places seeing an additional 4 to 14 inches of snowfall through Friday across the panhandle. In summary and to keep it shorter, snow is returning, and will remain through the week.

AVIATION
Less than stellar flying weather will give way to ever deteriorating conditions from South to North Saturday night through Sunday as a strong system moves up into the panhandle.
Currently MVFR to VFR conditions are prevailing as of Saturday afternoon, interspersed with drops towards IFR when showers move through; with the best chances of showers generally for areas from Sitka on northward. Through Saturday night, conditions will plummet to IFR in the southern panhandle, and through Sunday morning, enter LIFR. These conditions will push north through the day on Sunday, reaching the Icy Strait Corridor in full force Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, then pushing further north into the remainder of the area. Yakutat will be the one exception, with conditions improving Sunday into Sunday night.
Anticipate abundant heavy snow showers to return on Monday as the system departs, and for these snow showers to continue through the entirety of the upcoming week.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Along our coast, not much to talk about with respect to wind, as of 1500 Saturday the AMSR2 pass and buoys all show sustained winds less than 20 knots. Buoys are reporting our first dominant southerly swell of the season, originating from significant lows east of New Zealand several days ago; SSE 2 to 3 ft at 17 to 19 seconds and SW to NW wind chop on top, 1 to 2 ft at 3 to 5 seconds. However, all combined significant wave heights are below 6 ft, a welcome respite to the very active season. Tonight, southeasterly winds become more organized along the coast in response to a storm force low that will rapidly develop near Haida Gwaii, with extensive gale force winds from Dixon Entrance to Cross Sound. From Lituya Bay to Cape St. Elias, expect strong breezes to near-gale force conditions; strongest winds out of Cross Sound. Sunday night, outflow winds will strengthen out of Upper Bay in Yakutat Bay, with gale force forecasted.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds of gentle to fresh breezes continue across the inside as of Saturday afternoon. However, a storm force low rapidly moves into the eastern gulf Sunday. Anticipate southerly winds to build south of Icy Strait in response to this low, with gale force winds forecasted for the majority of Clarence Strait by Sunday afternoon, with a brief period of storm force conditions likely south of Hydaburg in Cordova Bay. Gale force northerly winds are also likely in Lynn Canal and as winds are pulled out of the inside, with gales likely out of Cross Sound. Mariners should prepare their vessels for the onset of snow. For folks in the southern Panhandle, check bilge pumps as heavy snow becomes heavy rain by late Saturday afternoon.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ318-319.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ320>322-325.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ322.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ323.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ323.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ323.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ324.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ326.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ327-329.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ327- 330.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ328.
High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ328.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ330- 332.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ331.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641.
Gale Warning for PKZ036-642-644-652-661>664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>035-053-643-651-672.