Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gustavus, AK

AVIATION
A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing rain and gusty winds across Southeast Alaska. As the system approaches land, it will weaken, but it still will bring periods of IFR across the area. Sitka southward, and Yakutat as well, have concerns for LLWS. The low pressure system weakening should mean a decrease in the low level winds as well.

PREV DISCUSSION

SYNOPSIS...

- Rain and wind continue through the weekend, with total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across SE AK, with winds gusts 35 to 45 mph across the southern panhandle.

- Periods of gale force conditions are likely along the coast over the weekend. See Marine Section for further info.

SHORT TERM
/through Sunday night/
A gale force low lifting north through the Gulf of Alaska is bringing with it a return to widespread rain and windy conditions for the weekend. Multiple fronts/troughs will pivot around the low through Saturday night, bringing rounds of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. On Sunday, as the low lifts north and weakens over the Kenai peninsula, rain will slowly diminish through Sunday night as onshore flow weakens and ridging builds into the region. Generally looking at rain accumulations of 1-3 inches through the weekend, with upwards of 4 inches possible for some areas. There exists a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday from near Cross Sound on south as there looks to be weak instability as the front pushes across the panhandle. Windy conditions are occurring across the southern half of the panhandle, and will spread across the northern half through the day on Saturday.
Additionally, snow levels look to hover around 3.5-4kft through the period. However, snow levels could dip down to 3kft across the north and could bring snow or rain/snow mix near White Pass. A couple rounds of slushy snow accumulations are possible during the nighttime and and early morning hours Saturday night.

LONG TERM
/Monday through Wednesday/
Rain continues into the week across the panhandle, improving to showery and light conditions. There is a period mid-day Monday where conditions could improve to little or no precipitation due to a ridge building over the panhandle after the low pressure system jumps on land in the western gulf. However, PoP and QPF are anticipated to increase again as a front associated with a low in the Bering Sea sweeps across the panhandle on Tuesday. This precipitation is more likely to stay concentrated in the northern and central panhandle, however, the southern panhandle could see at least overcast conditions and showers. Winds are currently not foreseen to be an issue for this time period across the panhandle, except for Yakutat, which could see breezier conditions as the front passes through.

AVIATION...
As of this update, a frontal boundary is sweeping across the coastal southern panhandle, tracking north to northwest through the morning and expected to arrive in the northern panhandle by 16Z.
Originating from a low centered in the Gulf, moving due north, this system is generating widespread, steady rainfall throughout SE AK. Heavier precipitation and gusty winds are currently impacting southern and outer coastal regions as the front passes.
While predominantly MVFR conditions with CIGs AoA 2000ft are expected through the early morning, localized periods of IFR affecting both CIGs and VISBYs remain possible. A brief improvement to VFR is anticipated for parts of the panhandle between 21Z and 03Z this afternoon, though persistent light rain will keep MVFR CIGs prevalent into the evening hours.

LLWS is also a concern this morning for TAF sites from PASI southward and including PAYA, though these conditions should diminish by the afternoon. Winds are strengthening considerably across the southern panhandle with the frontal passage and are likely to remain high through this evening. Current observations on PoW Island show gusts reaching 35kts, accompanied by 40kt shear from the SSW at 2000ft. While LLWS is not currently expected from the surface to 2000ft for northern and inland areas, more significant shear may be present aloft.

MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): A front is currently pushing north through the panhandle brining increased southerly winds into the southern and central inner channels. As winds increase, they will mainly remain around fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts. By and large, expect sustained winds of strong breezes for many locations, with some favored areas, like Clarence Strait, seeing a few hours of gale force conditions Saturday. Clarence Strait and ocean entrances along inner channels have already seen increased winds around 25 kts with gale force wind gusts. As the low continues to move northward, winds will continue to increase with the strongest winds anticipated across the south and east to west facing channels. Strongest winds are most likely to occur through Saturday afternoon before slowly diminishing. Lynn Canal into Taiya Inlet will continue to see increased winds around 15 to 20 kts into Sunday after the low moves inland.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A series of fronts making their way north across the area are bringing areas of SE near gale to gale force wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts across the gulf. This initial front will reach the northern gulf before the low moves farther north, once again increasing winds. As the low pushes northward, winds will continue to increase with sustained gale force winds over the eastern gulf and outside waters through Saturday. There is even a chance of low end storm force wind gusts near Cape St. Elias. Associated with this system is an excellent dynamic fetch responsible for southerly swell, along with the aforementioned fetch of southeasterly winds generating large southeasterly wind waves along the coast. Expect large and confused seas of 15 ft, to potentially as high as 18 ft, along the majority of our coast, with the focus of wave energy from the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>034-036-053-641>643-661.