Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Togiak, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry in the Central Interior with sunny skies through tomorrow.

- Isolated showers in the Eastern Interior through tomorrow with an isolated thunderstorm in the higher terrain possible Sunday.

- More substantial thunderstorm risks each afternoon next week.

- Temperatures above average through the weekend, then a slight cool down into the 50s to near 60 on Monday/Tuesday with a warming trend afterwards.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Low pressure brings showers to the West Coast and Western Interior this afternoon through the weekend.

- 0.10-0.25 inches of rain expected. Some snow may mix in from the Western Brooks Range to Seward Peninsula Mtns Saturday night into Sunday.

- Cooling trend this weekend, then warming next weekend to near/above average once again.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Diurnal fog will burn off this afternoon, then re-develop tonight with weak offshore flow.

- Onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon/evening with breezy northerly winds, stratus and fog through Sunday.

- Low impact weather with seasonable temps and showers over the Brooks Range for the next several days.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Weak dynamics overall with a broad area of low pressure around 1005 mb stationed from Bristol Bay to the Gulf. Weak high pressure is over the Western and Central Interior keeping it clear and dry with a weak area of low pressure in the Eastern Interior providing light rain showers. A 1024 mb high over the Anzhu Islands is moving east through the Chukchi Sea and will bring onshore flow to the North Slope tomorrow afternoon/evening. A high south of the Canadian Archipelago extends west to the Beaufort Sea. This all basically means the weather is quiet with no significant impacts.

FIRE WEATHER
This afternoon is dry again for most of the Interior of AK with the lone exception being some light showers over the AK Range and the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. Northeast winds turn more northerly today and are 10 to 15 mph at most, with min RH back into the low 20 percent range with only a couple of spots reaching 18-19% from Fairbanks to Eielson. An upper trough will shift into the W Coast and W Interior bringing light wetting rains tomorrow and Sunday, and increasing chances for showers for the Central Interior Sunday afternoon. It will be cool and damp out west this weekend as the cool front shifts inland after today. A wet thunderstorm is possible over the Interior terrain Sunday afternoon. Greater chances for storms arise on Monday and continues each afternoon next week.

HYDROLOGY
The Yukon River continues to hold sections of thermally degraded in-place ice between Beaver and Tanana. These limited sections are slowly breaking up and will continue to create ice runs they are pushed out. Remaining ice should clear out by this weekend.

For the Buckland River: - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of intact ice and open water; towards the headwaters open water conditions dominate. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from Buckland, including at known jam points.

-A local observer reports that water has continued to rise and is now just a few feet below bank full. Ongoing snowmelt in the basin brings the potential for flooding as early as Friday if the intact ice below Buckland is strong enough to resist the push of water and ice.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High confidence that troughing will be over the West Coast and Western Interior with weak ridging over the Central and Eastern Interior. This pattern looks to persist through much of the week bringing more showery weather to the Interior with slight chances for thunderstorms each afternoon through the work week.
We'll be monitoring a low in the Bering Sea late next week. There is low confidence in where it goes, but trends have been to develop it in the Western Bering Sea and push it over the Aleutians, then into the Gulf. It doesn't look too impactful right now besides the potential for light rain along the Coast.
Temperatures look to remain seasonable to slightly above average for much of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.