Sunday, June13, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:42PM Sunday June 13, 2021 6:53 AM AKDT (14:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:57AMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 131353 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 553 AM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms that bubbled up across the Mat-Su Valleys and over parts of the Copper River Basin and Talkeetna Mountains on Saturday have long since dissipated early this morning. Sensible weather across much of the southern mainland is now mostly calm and dry, with areas of low stratus hugging both the Southwest coast and areas of the North Gulf Coast. Similarly, fog and low stratus continue to blanket much of the Bering and the Aleutians/AKPen.

Looking aloft, the pattern also remains rather unremarkable with slow progression of the dominant features. An upper level low is now pulling away from Kodiak Island into the Gulf, with another expanse of low clouds and light rain showers are lingering underneath. Weak ridging extends over Southcentral to the north, with a stronger ridge sitting farther west over the Eastern Bering/Aleutians and AKPen. Farther upstream, two upper level lows are respectively located over the northern Bering and south of the Western Aleutians, with each supported by separate jet axes.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Overall model agreement continues to be good at the large scale through midweek, and forecast confidence remains high. Some disagreement persists for the track of the a low moving across the Western Aleutians by Tuesday and Wednesday. This may have some impacts in terms of timing and strength of winds with this system, but these discrepancies should otherwise remain low impact. For Southcentral, the main challenge will be determining where convection will initiate under a building ridge during the next couple afternoons. With the ridge likely to get aloft likely to become steadily stronger through Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely become increasingly suppressed by subsidence and warming midlevel temperatures each day.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will generally persist. Sporadic southeast wind gusts from the Turnagain Arm should continue to die off early this morning. Light, westerly seabreeze winds will later move into the terminal this afternoon and evening.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Tuesday) .

High pressure will quickly build into Southcentral AK today on an axis from the Eastern Alaska Peninsula stretching northeast into the Eastern Interior. This will keep fair weather going for the weekend with little activity, save for isolated thunderstorms over the Talkeetnas and in the Copper River Basin. There remains enough instability on the periphery of this ridge to allow convection to fire. As the high sets in tomorrow, convection will decrease and be limited to the Eastern Alaska Range, with convection ceasing Tuesday when the high is right overhead, capping any vertical development to clouds.

This high is expected to then detach from its origins in the North Pacific Tuesday and connect with the seasonal ridge extending up the West Coast of North America. This will strengthen the high and entrench it for the short term. This means increasing temperatures and drier conditions for Southcentral at least through midweek, especially for interior locations. Much of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin will be pushing 80F for highs on Tuesday, with most locations seeing warm temperatures. So, quiet weather and bona-fide summer conditions for Southcentral through midweek.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will persist in the early morning hours today along the Southwest Coast under a ridge of high pressure aloft. The ridge axis is expected to shift east today, allowing for unsettled weather to move ashore over the next couple of days. To start out, a frontal boundary associated with a Bering low will bring a few light rain showers in the immediate coastal areas Kuskokwim Delta today with the bulk of the precipitation concentrated along the northwestern part of the state. Meanwhile, a combination of daytime heating, warmer temperatures, and instability may bring another round of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley. As the front weakens and lifts northward, a second front associated with a low south of the Aleutian Chain will lift northward and reinforce another round of rain over the Southwest Coast, Kuskokwim Delta, and portions of the Bristol Bay area late Sunday night through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A ridge of high pressure aloft is helping to maintain area of low clouds and patchy fog across much of the Aleutians and Bering Sea this morning. As the ridge axis slowly shifts east, a North Pacific low and associated front will bring widespread coverage of rain over the central and eastern Aleutians beginning this afternoon into Tuesday. In addition to the precipitation, expect areas of gusty, southerly gap winds and elevated seas along the eastern Aleutian Chain this afternoon, subsiding by late Monday morning. As the low weakens and moves southward, another North Pacific low will enter the western-most Aleutians and bring a chance of rain as early as Monday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Tuesday through Thursday).

A Western Aleutian low moves into the Central Bering and weakens by Thursday. Its front wraps over the Bering and across the Aleutian through Thursday. Forecast confidence is good. Gale force winds with the front from North Pacific to Central Bering through Thursday. Seas to 15 feet South of the western Aleutians Tuesday. Generally light winds over the Gulf through Thursday, A North Pacific low spreads gusty winds less than gale force across the Southern Gulf on Thursday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday).

A summer-like pattern is expected to predominate the weather across mainland Southern Alaska through the long-term forecast period. A semi-permanent upper level ridge, typical of summertime patterns will be anchored over the interior of the state for much of the week. This will favor mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures. When the ridging is at its strongest on Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures in interior areas of the Mat-Su and Copper River Basin may get above the 80 degree mark.

With that said, there is considerable uncertainty on those times when the ridge weakens and allows upper level disturbances to move across the area. This is significant because those disturbances are frequently responsible for setting off thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. This thunderstorm activity would be in addition to any that are set off by the instability caused by the thermal trough. Tuesday looks the most likely to have the least amount of storms as compared to the subsequent days. Thursday looks the most likely to have a disturbance moving through causing extra storms. The track and strength of those disturbances is highly uncertain, and therefore, it cannot yet be said with any certainty which areas are most likely to see convective activity yet.

A low moving over the far western Aleutians on Tuesday remains the main feature out west where there is a decent amount of model agreement. However, whether it stalls or moves north or south through mid-week is also uncertain. It appears likely that a low will track along the Aleutians through late in the workweek, keeping conditions wet and unstable. Meanwhile the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska look to remain mostly quiet through Thursday, once a front causing some light rain along the Kuskokwim Delta coast Tuesday morning moves west out to sea.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 165,170. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MF MARINE/LONG TERM . KZ/JPW


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi60 minS 48.00 miOvercast42°F42°F100%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrS5S6S6SW5S4SW5SW5CalmW6W5W4CalmW8W6W6W6W5W4CalmS3W4S5S5S4
1 day agoSW4SW5W6S6SW5S5S4S7SW7SW7SW12
G16
SW10W9SW10W9SW8SW7SW7SW8SW8SW6S6S6S7
2 days agoSW4SW4S7SW8S8SW5SW4S4S7S6NW4W6W7NW4N5CalmW5W5NW4NW4CalmSW3SW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Morakas Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:25 AM AKDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM AKDT     18.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:59 PM AKDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:45 PM AKDT     10.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.30.40.94.29.314.117.31817.115.413.110.47.553.32.75.49.510.810.39.27.65.73.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:49 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:11 AM AKDT     2.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:57 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM AKDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:09 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:38 PM AKDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:23 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:44 PM AKDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
-10.322.82.62.11.2-0.1-1.1-1.9-2.3-2.4-2.4-1.8-0.311.10.80.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.6

Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.