Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 9:55PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:39 AM AKDT (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171331
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
531 am akdt Sat aug 17 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Not much to say, this summer will go down into the history books
as record warmth continued to dominate yesterday as a rather
incredible 599 dm 500 hpa high remains over bristol bay. The cold
bay 00z sounding recorded a 595 dm height at 500 hpa with 850 hpa
temps around 17c. Kodiak island tied the all time high of 86
degrees f. Anchorage reached the 30th day at or above 75 degrees,
doubling the previous record, and we reached 70 degrees for the
46th time this year. Moreover, the past 11 days in anchorage have
been at or above 75 degrees. Today will be different, however, a
cold front works it way south and upper level heights fall. The
current leading shortwave is now working east across interior
alaska with rain accompanying it across the alaska range, northern
susitna, and northern copper basin. Gusty outflow winds have
ensued as seward has pushed up to 74 (as of 2 am) with a north
wind, and dewpoints at anchorage have dropped into the 40s with a
north wind. The pattern change is underway.

Model discussion
Overall model agreement with the large scale pattern is very good
through next week. The details of a closed low over the yukon, and
its overall track into southcentral (or not) Sunday and Monday do
cloud the overall picture, slightly. Should the closed low migrate
south into southcentral, showers may be more prevalent with cooler
temps. For now, will take a middle ground approach and favor the
chance for showers and that such a feature could have an impact on
the weather. For the short term, hi res models were favored to
better capture the strong offshore winds and overall gusty winds
inland, as well.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds will persist
into Sunday.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The well-advertised dry cold front is blasting through the area
this morning. Gusty north winds have developed across just about
all of southcentral. These winds are especially potent in many of
the usual gaps such as seward, whittier, and thompson pass. Winds
will remain strong and gusty through the day today as the upper-
level energy associated with this system will make for very
unstable and well-mixed atmosphere. Some rain showers and even
some localized thunderstorms did make it over the ak range with
this front. Any further precipitation will be relegated to the
eastern copper river basin and the NE gulf coast (valdez, cordova,
etc). With the lack of any widespread rainfall in most areas for
several weeks, we do expect some blowing dust to kick up around
the matanuska valley later today.

Temperatures for today and Sat night remain a challenging
forecast. Temperatures in many places have not cooled much
this morning due to friction and mixing caused by the wind. Even
though the airmass at 850mb (5000') will cool several degrees
today, there will still be abundant sunshine. The Sun coupled with
some of the winds downsloping from north to south off terrain
could lead to localized warmer afternoon highs. In general though,
expect temperatures to run 5-8 degrees cooler than Friday. For
tonight, in lower valleys where winds should taper off some,
temperatures could be the coldest they have been in weeks. In
fact, anchorage has seen 56 days of low temperatures at or above
50f and that will be in jeopardy tonight if the winds die off.

Sunday we will see another shortwave drop in from north to south.

Once again, this will be a dry feature. So expect mostly sunny
skies for all places, but the wave will help to mix down continued
gusty winds. Low temperatures Sun night into Mon morning will
certainly be some of the coldest in weeks.

Fire weather
Many locations are flirting with critical fire weather conditions
early this morning. This is a result of gusty downsloping winds
helping to keep temperatures warm while some very dry air mixes in
behind the cold front. This scenario will remain in place through
the day today. However, we do expect the airmass to generally cool
through the day as well and thus, if any locations should reach
criteria, it would be very localized in nature.

Regardless, the big story remains the signifcant dry air moving
in coupled with strong sustained winds. Recoveries should be
slightly better overnight Sat into Sun as winds slacken somewhat.

However, another shortwave will ramp the gusts back up on sun
afternoon as the dry air remains in place.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3; today
through Monday)...

onshore flow will lead to mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog this
morning across the kuskokwim delta. Skies will quickly clear later
this morning across all of western alaska as strong high pressure
builds over the region. Gusty northerly winds of 25-30 mph are
likely over the lower kuskokwim valley through Sunday. A cold
front will track over the region on Monday, leading to more
seasonal temperatures and increasing cloud cover. Showers are
possible across the kuskokwim delta as well, under a weak low.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3; today
through Monday)...

moderate to heavy rain and southerly gales will continue generally
west of adak through today between high and low pressure. This
will gradually track westward and weaken as the associated low
dies near kamchatka. Farther east, mostly clear skies and light
winds will persist south of high pressure with the exception of
some areas of fog this morning in unalaska bay.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)
Gusty small-craft winds with potential for higher gusts will
continue down cook inlet, prince william sound, and the valdez
marine areas through Sunday night, with slow relaxation of the
winds for Monday. Choppy seas as high as 8 feet will persist
through cook inlet through midday Sunday with gradually subsiding
seas after that. Generally light winds are expected for Tuesday.

Offshore winds to small-craft will continue through the day Sunday
across bristol and kuskokwim bays, with lighter winds expected
Monday and Tuesday. A gale-force front will approach the western
and central aleutians Monday night. Across the islands, the winds
are expected to remain at high-end small-craft, but seas to 15
feet are expected on the pacific side. The winds will gradually
diminish through the day Tuesday, but will persist to small-craft
strength into Tuesday night.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Sunday through Thursday)
In the upper levels, a longwave trough and associated upper level
lows over eastern alaska are expected to retrograde westward by
Tuesday, and persist through Thursday and beyond. This will mean
significantly cooler conditions for much of mainland alaska. What
will stay very consistent however is the dry weather, which will
persist for at least the start of the long-term through Monday. By
mid-week the models rapidly diverge on how to handle moisture
wrapping around the persistent upper level low over the area.

However, this means that at least the chances for rains to return
to southern alaska will increase, even if it cannot be said for
sure exactly when that will happen.

A front associated with the northern edge of a strong low will
approach the western and central aleutians Monday night into
Tuesday. The parent low never makes it anywhere near the chain,
however, the front will persist along the chain through Wednesday,
as it moves eastward with time. This could bring wetting rains
back to the eastern aleutians Wednesday. A triple-point low is
expected to develop somewhere in the gulf by Thursday morning, but
as alluded to above, where it tracks, and thus, who gets any rain
from it is a very low-confidence forecast now.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning: 177.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ja
southcentral alaska... Mso
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi45 minN 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F51°F75%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW4S4W6NW6W8NW6W6NW7W10W10W7W6S4CalmS4E4CalmN5N3N8NE9N11N12
1 day agoW6SW10W10SW10W10W9SW13
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2 days agoSW6SW7W10W10W9--SW7W9W9W10SW10SW9SW9SW9SW5SW5S4SW6SW7SW6W6SW4SW8W6

Tide / Current Tables for Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Morakas Point
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Sat -- 12:45 AM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM AKDT     16.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:46 PM AKDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM AKDT     12.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.73.37.812.515.916.715.914.312.19.46.542.52.359.112.112.411.610.18.36.24.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 02:05 AM AKDT     2.53 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:42 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:26 AM AKDT     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:45 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:33 PM AKDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:43 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:22 PM AKDT     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.92.52.41.90.9-0.3-1.3-2-2.4-2.5-2.5-1.40.41.51.61.40.7-0.3-1.1-1.7-2-1.9-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.