Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:04AMSunset 3:44PM Saturday December 14, 2019 6:05 PM AKST (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 11:41AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 150129 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 429 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A weak upper short wave is lifting north across the Southcentral this afternoon. In response showers are evident across much of the Gulf, Kenai Peninsula, and the Cook to Susitna Valley corridor. Though strong southeast cross-barrier flow minimized precipitation potential to the lee (west) of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. A stacked low pressure center was over the eastern Aleutians with an occluded front extending from just south of the Pribilof Islands to over Kodiak Island. Rain/snow associated with this front as evident across the Pribilofs, Southwest Mainland, to rain over Kodiak Island. Widespread rain and showers were also observed over the Eastern ALeutians and AK Peninsula. Strong and gusty cyclonic flow, associated with the large low center over the eastern Aleutians, was evident by brisk northerly winds to its west and strong easterly winds stretching across the Gulf of Alaska. Tight east to west pressure gradients produced strong easterly winds along Turnagain Arm.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models from a synoptic perspective are in fair agreement. There are some positional differences in the surface low near Kodiak/AK Pen tonight and Sunday. However, the general sensible weather should be fairly close.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will persist. Winds across the airport complex will become north by early evening. This, combined with Southeasterly winds aloft, will bring LLWS through Sunday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A trough producing widespread showers across Prince William Sound will continue to lift north overnight as it slowly weakens. A front associated with a low pressure system over the central Aleutians will track northeast from the western Gulf and approach the northern Gulf and Southcentral coast Sunday. Rain along the front will continue to provide wet conditions for Kodiak City tonight through the weekend. This area of precipitation will advance with the front, spreading over the Southcentral coast Sunday and Monday. This front will also produce winds up to storm force and high seas from the Barren Islands to the Copper River Delta beginning Sunday. The high winds and rough seas are expected to persist until Monday morning.

Despite this wet pattern, the Anchorage Bowl and western Kenai Peninsula are not receiving much, if any, precipitation. This is due to downsloping from rain falling on the windward side of the Chugach/Kenai mountains which makes it difficult for precipitation to make it to the leeward side. These dry conditions look to remain through Monday night. Winds look to remain southeasterly, which will keep Turnagain Arm wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph through Sunday before slowly tapering off. Patchy fog in the Copper River Basin is the greatest forecast challenge, as temperatures look to stay cold ahead of the front. Whether fog occurs or not will be a matter of the sky clearing overnight. If it clears, temperatures will be able to drop closer to the dewpoint. This, along with little to no wind, are ingredients needed for fog development. If clouds linger and temperatures stay a bit warmer across the basin, widespread fog may not have the opportunity to develop.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A low pressure system 150 miles southeast of St Paul Island this afternoon will be responsible for a round of active weather for southwest Alaska on Sunday. Gusty winds will impact the area, with Bristol Bay and coastal areas seeing the strongest winds through Sunday evening. While precipitation will be primarily rain across Southwest Alaska, areas of the Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta will see snow. As winds return to the northeast, Southwest Alaska will see some mixed rain and snow showers on Monday as colder air comes back in.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). A low pressure system 150 miles southeast of St Paul Island will be responsible for strong winds and widespread rain and snow showers across the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians through Sunday night. As the system weakens Monday, rain showers will remain through Monday night. Another strong low pressure system will enter the Western Aleutians Sunday evening, with another round of strong winds and precipitation.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft advisories to gale warnings are expected as this low pressure system moves through. Additionally, expect light to heavy freezing spray from Hooper Bay to Nunivak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in decent agreement with the longwave pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Friday December 20th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one near Kodiak Island and a Kamchatka low. There is a ridge axis between the two systems. There are some minor differences with the timing of two different surface lows but the forecast intensity is only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is very similar. Overall, the run to run continuity with these two lows has been decent. Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska and later towards SE AK. All the while, the second storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the Aleutian chain. For Southcentral Alaska, temperatures will be near or slightly above normal. Again, for the Anchorage metro area the chances of snow in this forecast period range from zero to slight chance.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 130 131. Gale Warning 125 132 136>136 141 155 165 170>179. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . LB MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi71 minE 16 G 2210.00 miOvercast40°F33°F77%992 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E4E4E5E4E3CalmCalmNE5E5S4CalmNE3NE4NE7NE3E11E11E18
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Tide / Current Tables for Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Morakas Point
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Sat -- 12:35 AM AKST     2.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 AM AKST     12.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:00 PM AKST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:32 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:11 PM AKST     19.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.27.611.712.211.5107.95.73.51.60.2-0.31.56.412.316.91918.61714.611.88.85.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 01:25 AM AKST     1.41 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:04 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:25 AM AKST     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:13 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:26 AM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:40 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:50 PM AKST     3.18 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:33 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:27 PM AKST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:21 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:54 PM AKST     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.11.31.30.80.1-1-1.8-2.2-2.2-1.8-1.3-0.612.73.22.71.90.7-0.7-1.7-2.3-2.4-2.3-2.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.