Friday, October23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:03AMSunset 6:24PM Friday October 23, 2020 7:30 PM AKDT (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:48PMMoonset 10:32PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 240207 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 607 PM AKDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically stacked low in the southern Bering Sea is slowly moving northeastward. The upper level ridge has been pushed to the AlCan border leaving southwesterly flow aloft over southern Mainland Alaska as well as the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea. The trough the Bering Sea low resides in digs southward to around 35N 170W where satellite shows a developing low. This is mentioned as this low will move along the front connecting that area to the Gulf of Alaska (as seen on GOES-17 imagery) and is the low that will be the main weather maker for early next week. In the near-term, the radar over Southcentral has shown many hours of 20+ DBZ over the area yet very few reports of precipitation though early afternoon. This is due to the very dry lower atmosphere which is evaporating the falling precipitation before it reaches the ground. The 00Z weather balloon launch in Anchorage may give a good indication as to whether that lower layer will be able to saturate and allow snow or rain to reach the surface, or continue to evaporate it all.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The good news is that the models are in very good synoptic agreement into early next week and remain in very decent agreement even into the latter parts of next week. As is often the case, the small details are what will make or break the forecast. This is the story for the northern Cook Inlet region Sunday into Monday and particularly for Anchorage and surrounding areas. This issue is partially where the surface low tracks along the north Gulf coast, but the bigger issue is how far and fast the cold air is able to move east of the Alaska Range. This will be the driver in precipitation type over the area with a wide array of outcomes possible. More on this in the short term Southcentral discussion below.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist into Saturday. Ceilings may drop into the 3500 to 4500 ft range at times but are not expected to go lower than that.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An active weather pattern is in store for Southcentral this weekend. A front currently over the southwestern Gulf will slowly lift northward tonight. Some light precipitation is already filling in along the northern Gulf Coast as the front gradually approaches. Easterly to southeasterly winds will ramp up over the northern Gulf waters this evening, especially over the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay.

The greatest challenge with this forecast has been precipitation type. While there is some cold air in place across Southcentral, a very warm, moist airmass associated with this front lifting northward will bring rain across the northern Gulf Coast. A mix of rain and snow is possible over the western Susitna Valley along the foothills of the Alaska Range through Saturday. By Saturday evening, a second system in the Gulf lifts northward and will spread in more precipitation across Southcentral. Given continued southerly flow and warmer air, the northern Gulf Coast will see rain. However as this low gradually shifts toward the northeast Sunday into Monday, colder air on the backside will slowly filter down across the Susitna Valley, introducing the potential for snow early Monday. By Monday afternoon, the low center remains in place somewhere in the vicinity of Prince William Sound. Though models have come into better overall agreement with the progression of this low, they do continue to struggle with the exact track. Stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday morning through Sunday morning) .

The longwave and shortwaves associated with the upper low will trigger rainfall over much of the forecast period, with snow accumulation up to 2 inches over Kuskokwim Valley tonight and Saturday. The surface temperatures will differ slightly across the region between tonight and Saturday night as south-southeast winds advect warmer air from the marine area. Otherwise, colder temperatures aloft and persistent influence of the upper low will keep much of the region under a wet spell the next couple days.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday) .

The gale force low over the central Bering will weaken as it moves toward Pribilof Islands tonight. The strongest side of the low lies north of Adak and Kiska, which will usher gales there tonight. As for the rest of the region, winds and wave heights will gradually subside through the weekend in response to the weakening of the low pressure system. The next frontal boundary from the northwest Pacific will brush near the Western Aleutians on Monday morning. Depending on the parent low, the future motion of the frontal system is unclear at this point while models suggest it will stall over western Aleutians throughout Monday. Overall, it will be a quiet forecast period once hazardous weather subsides starting tonight.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday).

Gulf of Alaska:

There is medium confidence that a barrier jet set up across the northeastern Gulf coast will continue through Monday. Differences in models exist over the strength of the winds associated with this feature and its extent. For now, up to gale force winds are possible from Prince William Sound east. Besides this, forecast confidence decreases with an area of low pressure from the north Pacific. At this time, the majority of model guidance indicates broad southwesterly to westerly flow from the southern Gulf into southern Alaska on Monday. However, small craft to storm force winds are a possibility, including continuation of the barrier jet from the day before. The winds strength and direction will depend on the track of this low, which is currently showing a potential path either up along Kodiak Island and Kenai Peninsula waters or northwest towards eastern Prince William Sound. These intricacies will be better determined with future model runs. This low looks to remain just south of Prince William Sound and begin weakening Tuesday before moving to the east and dissipating by Wednesday.

Bering Sea:

There is medium confidence that a front will move across the western Aleutians through Tuesday. What models are still struggling with is if winds will be below or above small craft criteria. The associated low center could possibly enter the western Bering on Wednesday, however, guidance is all over the place with this, as well. If it does enter the Bering, it brings a possibility of small craft winds into the central Bering depending on the strength of the low. If it stays to the west of the Bering Sea, winds and waves will be below small craft through the forecast period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Model agreement increases for the surface low approaching the Northern Gulf on Monday. Multiple embedded shortwaves pass through the Gulf towards the Southeast coast early next week, with moderate to heavy precipitation expected for the Southcentral coasts. This is expected to be rain except for the higher elevations with will see some snowfall accumulation. Additionally, there is better model agreement for the arctic trough pushing south across the Mainland mid-late next week, bringing colder temperatures to Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Temperatures are likely to be below normal for both regions by mid-week.

There are still significant model discrepancies for the North Pacific surface low approaching the Aleutians. The system seems to be increasingly impactful, with the only similarity being that it stays just south of the Chain. The Canadian matches well with the ECMWF on strength but places the low much further northeast than both the ECMWF and GFS. GFS is much deeper than the other two, but is more cooperative with the ECMWF's path.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning: 130. Gale Warning: 119, 120, 131, 132, 141, 177, 351, 352, 411. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . CK/KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi37 minE 15 G 2010.00 miFair46°F36°F68%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Morakas Point
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Fri -- 05:15 AM AKDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 08:58 AM AKDT     14.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:06 PM AKDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:46 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:05 PM AKDT     20.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.712.28.552.51.32.87.712.714.814.212.710.47.74.82.10.1-0.816.312.818.120.419.8

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Fri -- 12:25 AM AKDT     -3.16 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:01 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:24 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:57 AM AKDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:57 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:19 PM AKDT     -3.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:58 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 PM AKDT     3.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:56 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.1-3.1-2.8-1.9-0.11.82.421.3-0.1-1.5-2.5-3-2.9-2.4-1.60.12.33.53.52.81.6-0.1-1.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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