Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:41AMSunset 11:12PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 9:35 AM AKDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 261301 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 AM AKDT Tue May 26 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The easterly wave passing through the south side of the upper level high sitting over northern Alaska has brought some widespread rain to the Copper River Basin & the Matsu Valley. Gulkana recorded nearly three quarters of an inch in last 24 hours and widespread quarter inch totals in the Susitna Valley were recorded. Temperatures at Eureka dropped to freezing and snow was recorded there and likely elsewhere above 3500 ft. Conditions along the southern coast are quiet with scattered rain in Valdez, Seward, & Anchorage from the southern reaches of the previously mentioned easterly wave. Southwest Alaska is seeing a few scattered rain showers, as the upper low in the Bering pushes a shortwave to the outer coastline of Bristol Bay. The broad nature of the upper level trough in the Bering is keeping the Aleutians in a quiet pattern this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

06Z model runs seem to remain consistent with a blocking high setting up across mainland Alaska from the Yukon border back to the Alaska Peninsula. This high will be skirted by two lows that are advertised much differently as the end of the week nears. In the near-term, a pattern shift is in the works for southcentral Alaska. Uncertainty will remain though, because of the blocking high pressure and how much influence it exerts on the upper level lows competing to shake up the pattern. The EC is holding on to the block, while the GFS breaks it down.

AVIATION. PANC . Mostly VFR conditions and light winds will persist. However, expect scattered showers to remain near the terminal through the evening. MVFR conditions possible due to ceilings during rain showers.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday night) . The easterly wave that brought rain to much of Southcentral yesterday and last night will exit to western Alaska this morning, with rain diminishing in its wake. However, another short-wave trough has entered the Gulf and is lifting northward toward Southcentral Alaska. This trough, which is much larger and broader in nature, will act upon the existing moist environment and combine with weak instability to produce showers. Low level southerly flow will favor showers training over the same areas, from the western Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Showers will diminish tonight into Wednesday as this second trough exits to the north.

A pattern change will then lead to much warmer and drier conditions as we head through the remainder of the week. Wednesday will be a transition day as a short-wave ridge builds overhead and weak low level offshore flow develops in response to a large vertically stacked low approaching the southern Gulf of Alaska. This will help to clear out most of the clouds and begin to warm temperatures.

On Thursday, the short-wave ridge will merge with a larger and stronger ridge near the ALCAN border and build over Southcentral. Strengthening offshore flow between the ridge and the low making some progress into the Gulf will lead to rapidly warming low level temperatures, with 850mb temperatures warming by 6 to 8 degrees Celsius from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. The strength of the offshore flow will largely keep sea breezes at bay. Thus, expect high temperatures across the entire region to reach the 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The persistent low that has remained in place over the eastern Bering will finally begin to lift northward and exit the Bering to the north this afternoon. An upper level wave has the potential to provide enough lift to produce showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, especially along the foothills of the Alaska Range. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible over the Kuskokwim Mountains this afternoon and early evening. This trend is likely to continue for Wednesday with daytime heating allowing for showers to form, especially over the mountains. By Thursday, a shift in the pattern arrives as an upper level ridge over the mainland attempts to extend westward. This will bring offshore flow and a warming and drying trend across much of Southwest. High temperatures could approach the mid to upper 60s on Thursday, especially across interior parts of Southwest, which will be a noticeable departure from the cooler temperatures seen earlier this week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A low centered north of the Pribilofs slowly exits the Bering to the north this afternoon. Farther west, an inbound low spreads a front across the western Aleutians today bringing gusty southerly winds and rain. While the low center tracks west of the Bering, the associated front will continue moving eastward through Wednesday afternoon. An upper level ridge building over the eastern Bering will prevent the front from advancing farther east, stopping just short of the Pribilof Islands early Thursday. However the gusty southerly winds will remain in place across much of the central and western Bering through the end of the workweek.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday). Gulf of Alaska: A front wrapped around the north side of a low may possibly produce gales from Thursday morning through midday over the far southern Gulf's offshore areas. The low center will move into the eastern Gulf through Saturday, but as it weakens, the chance of gales will remain low. Confidence is average.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Gales continue to be most likely Thursday morning over the central Bering from Adak through to west of Saint Matthew Island. The chances of those gales materializing in that area have decreased since yesterday. Confidence quickly diminishes as to whether a new round of gales will impact the southern Bering and Eastern and Central Aleutians Friday into Saturday, as model agreement on the track of a new North Pacific low that would cause the gales is very low.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Tuesday). The long-term forecast starts out with a stagnant weather pattern in place. An upper level Rex Block of sorts starts out the long term on Friday across mainland Alaska, with an upper level high over the northern Yukon, with a stationary upper low over the Gulf. A narrow area of ridging is over Southwest Alaska, with a large trough over the far western Bering. An upper low associated with the western Bering trough moves east to around the Central Aleutians by Sunday. Whether or not that low gets close enough to the still-stationary Gulf low to absorb it remains in question, with more solutions than not suggesting that one does not absorb it until early next week.

Either way this pattern will leave much of southern mainland Alaska, especially Southcentral, on the wet side of things. This is because pulses of energy circulating around the upper level Gulf low will periodically swing east to west, or easterly waves as we meteorologists call them, around the Gulf low and across Southcentral. Since the waves will not be originating from interior Canada, but rather from the Gulf, they will frequently have lots of moisture associated with them. Thus, cool, cloudy, and wet conditions, with potential for thunderstorms if any prolonged clearing can occur in between waves, are expected. The upcoming weekend may allow the Copper River Basin in particular to end what had been a very dry May prior to last night well above normal for total precipitation.

For Southwest Alaska, since the mountains of Southcentral will wring out much of the moisture and the waves will be moving towards the southwest, it's far more likely to be dry for much of the long-term. Any stronger waves could still set off showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons, depending on how much instability and sunshine can develop earlier in the day. Sunday afternoon appears to be the best chance of precipitation as of now.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . LTB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . JW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi41 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast49°F34°F56%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Morakas Point
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Tue -- 01:56 AM AKDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:38 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM AKDT     18.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:44 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:26 PM AKDT     2.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM AKDT     11.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.70.22.16.912.316.518.417.916.414.111.58.65.93.82.63.5811.211.210.48.96.94.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Tue -- 01:27 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:39 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:48 AM AKDT     2.94 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:45 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:11 AM AKDT     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:45 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:15 PM AKDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:58 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:14 PM AKDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-0.60.92.52.92.51.80.6-0.7-1.6-2.2-2.3-2.3-2.2-1.20.41.31.10.7-0-1-1.7-1.9-1.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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