Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:30AMSunset 4:03PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 2:09 AM AKST (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 250143 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The large front we have watched move through the Bering is currently pushing into Southwest Alaska. Surface observations show warm is pushing inland as expected with this front, switching snow to rain. The well defined trough and trailing edge of the front is currently located over the Pribilofs stretching south to the Eastern Aleutians. Behind this front surface analysis shows a prominent post frontal shortwave moving through the Central Bering, with satellite confirming this with a band of cloud cover. Northwesterly flow and colder temperatures are behind this shortwave.

Southcentral is having a brief break in the weather, as the low that was inducing offshore flow and gaps winds has moved southeast out of our forecast area. This has allowed winds to subside. A surface high is also in place over Southcentral AK, helping to keep weather quiet.

All of this is supported in the upper levels by a 500 mb closed low just off the coast of Siberia with a 500MB trough extending south through the central Bering. This is system is part of broader longwave troughing encompassing all of the Bering and Eastern Siberia. Moving east to Southcentral, a 500 mb trough is in place with the ridge axis about over the Susitna Valley. This synoptic pattern is in the process of progressing east, which is allowing upper level troughing to push into mainland AK.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

One the synoptic scale models are picking up on the general features and look to be in agreement. It should be noted weather features are moving about three hours faster than models show, so this change is accounted for in the forecast. Otherwise they are handling the pattern well. They do develop inconsistencies when focusing on the mesoscale, especially for Southcentral AK and the Gulf of Alaska. In Southwest AK and the Bering models seem to be performing well, save for depicting precipitation type which is typical. In Southcentral AK, models have considerable disagreement after about 36 hours, including the frontal system on late Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, higher forecast confidence out west, with lower forecast confidence after Wednesday for Southcentral.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist. Light northerly winds will be present at the surface. However, southeasterly winds are expected to increase with Turnagain Arm winds tonight. These winds will remain elevated just above the surface and will create a low-level wind shear environment over the airfield.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Friday) . The next storm system, which will bring widespread wind and precipitation to Southcentral late tonight through Wednesday night, is largely on track. Have made only minor adjustments with this afternoon's forecast package. The biggest question going into today was how much wind lower elevations of Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley would see on Wednesday. The latest forecast soundings are in good agreement with the overall evolution of the profile through the day tomorrow. While we'll start the day out with a weak low level inversion, moistening of the airmass near and above mountain top, will result in some cooling, resulting in a fairly deep near isothermal profile. As the front passes through around 3pm tomorrow afternoon, low level cold air advection will quickly ensue, resulting in a weak unstable layer. At no point is there an obvious critical level, which is key to helping force high winds down to the surface. However, high winds (gusting to 80 mph) along west Turnagain Arm and on into the upper Hillside of Anchorage look on track, so have upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Still expect some gusty winds at lower elevations, but these winds should remain well below key thresholds to produce damage and are expected to be fairly brief (on the order of a few hours). For areas near the mountains as well as the Matanuska Valley, expect peak wind gusts of around 40 to 50 mph Wednesday afternoon.

Strong winds across the region ahead of the triple point low and frontal system will lead to a fairly rapid warm-up at sea level Wednesday morning, with rain expected across most of the Kenai Peninsula. However, inland areas will likely see some wet snow accumulation before changing to rain. The Seward Highway corridor will be particularly messy, with strong winds and areas of rain and snow. The snow will be heavy at times through Turnagain Pass. As the front and low head inland Wednesday night, colder air aloft will quickly move in behind it. However, surface temperatures across Anchorage and the Mat Valley will likely be sitting in the mid to upper 30s, largely due to the strong winds earlier in the day. Thus, expect a mix of rain and snow transitioning to snow as we head into the evening hours. The upper trough will move through fairly quickly, so accumulation will generally be light across the region Wednesday night.

Another much weaker storm will track across the western Gulf Thursday and head into Southcentral Thursday night. This looks to be primarily a snow producer Thursday night through Friday, with little concern for strong winds. However, confidence in the track of this storm is low, so will have to wait for future forecasts to lock in on snow amounts. The active weather will continue Friday, as a large and deep Aleutian low approaches Kodiak and the western Gulf. This will bring another round of strong winds and heavy precipitation to the region as we head into the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A front associated with a strengthening low in the northern Bering continues to impact the southwest this afternoon. Gusty winds continue across the area with a mix of precipitation throughout. Almost all areas have turned over to rain, as temperatures have increased due to warm air advecting into the region. Confidence has increased regarding the Kuskokwim Valley and if colder temperatures would prevail. Sleetmute has stayed below 32 degrees throughout today, increasing confidence for the area that precipitation will continue to fall as snow. For the areas experiencing rainfall, expect precipitation to change over to snow during the overnight hours, with continued rainfall expected tomorrow during the day. Gusty winds will continue for much of the southwest until tomorrow afternoon, as the front moves to the east and out of the area.

As the warm air moves east on Wednesday, it will be replaced by cold air beginning, first, with the coastal regions before making its way across the rest of the southwest inland areas. This will change all precipitation back over to snowfall as the warm air moves out of the area. Expect continued snow showers for Thursday before it dries out a bit Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Rainfall and gusty winds continue to accompany a front associated with a strong low in the northern Bering. This will continue until tomorrow, when cold air advection takes over and transitions rain to snow for the central and eastern Aleutians. After this, widespread snow showers are expected across the Bering and Aleutians from Wednesday morning until Thursday morning, when a front associated with a low in the North Pacific makes its way across the western Aleutians. This will bring another shot of storm force winds, warm temperatures and increased chances of rain to the area before moving into the central Aleutians Thursday and the eastern Aleutians on Friday. Challenges are expected with this feature, as with the last, in precipitation type and timing of the transition from snow to rain and from rain back to snow.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Gulf of Alaska:

Fair confidence with overall pattern but much uncertainty remains in the details during the 3-5 day timeframe. Friday, a Gale force low will move across the southern Gulf. The low will weaken and move into the eastern Gulf Friday afternoon. however low confidence on track and strength. Friday afternoon a gale force front moves into the Gulf there is a chance of near storm force winds southeast of Cordova with the barrier jet, but low confidence on strength and higher confidence with track. This front will move inland and weaken by Saturday afternoon. A gale force low will move in behind the front by Saturday afternoon. This low weakens as it moves into the northern Gulf Sunday morning, fair confidence on track and intensity.

Bering Sea:

A storm force low moves just north of the Aleutians across the southern Bering on Friday and Saturday. Most of the storm force winds are expected on Pacific side of Aleutians. This low will move east into the Gulf Saturday evening. Good confidence on track, but lower confidence on strength of low. Saturday night through Sunday another storm force low is expected track south of the Aleutians, low confidence with track and strength of this low.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7. Saturday through Tuesday) .

Progressive flow will continue to dominate the long term with a series of fronts and lows moving across the Aleutians and Bering into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. These systems may bring chances of accumulating snow to Southwest and Southcentral. Models are hinting at a slight pattern shift as the storm track and upper level jet may move south keeping the storms south of much of the Aleutians and Bering, with the exception of the Gulf which may be influenced by a strong North American ridge which will direct storms into the Gulf and possibly into Southcentral by the middle of next week. Good confidence on the overall pattern, but lower confidence on details of track and strength of systems.

Saturday morning an occluded front will move into Southwest Alaska with rain near coast and snow farther inland. This front will stretch across the AKPEN to near Kodiak Island and across the Gulf bringing heavier precipitation to Kodiak Island and northward across the Kenai and Prince William Sound. As the front moves north models are starting to show a triple point forming near Kodiak Island and tracking north, however the track and strength of this low is very uncertain. Rain or snow is possible across Southcentral late Saturday into Sunday as the front moves inland, but details uncertain especially with precipitation type. This front will also produce Gale force winds across Gulf and strong winds, especially near the coast and the usual local effect winds. The parent low to this front will move south of the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN Saturday. This low will produce storm force winds mainly on the Pacific side of the Aleutians and weaken to Gales as it moves into the Gulf by Saturday evening. This low then moves into northern Gulf late Sunday and weakens. Fair confidence with this system, however lower confidence with the details of local winds and precipitation type.

Yet another storm force low tracks just south of the Aleutians Sunday and Monday still a bit of spread among the models, but relatively good agreement considering its 5 days out. Depending on the track of low and front Southwest Alaska may get some snow out of this system as the EC and GFS show the possibility of snow in the deformation zone, but too much uncertainty to say this will happen at this point. The front associated with this low will track into the Gulf on Monday bringing another round of winds, rain, and snow. Tuesday the front will move inland and weaken, while much of the Bering and Aleutians will be under quieter weather as northerly flow sets up as models hint at the upper jet dipping farther south keeping the storm track south of the area.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning 101. Coastal Flood Advisory 155. MARINE . Gale 120 128-139 141 150-178 180. Storm 119 125. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CK MARINE/LONG TERM . RC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi76 minESE 21 G 3510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy45°F33°F63%974.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKN

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE9S10S8SE8E8E10E8E9SE5E5SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Morakas Point
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Wed -- 03:53 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:18 AM AKST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:47 AM AKST     14.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:00 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:24 PM AKST     1.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:42 PM AKST     16.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.615.112.8106.941.80.71.65.39.913.414.413.712.210.17.65.12.91.82.56.311.315.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Wed -- 02:44 AM AKST     -3.00 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:55 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:05 AM AKST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:20 AM AKST     2.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:45 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:51 PM AKST     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:02 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM AKST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:23 PM AKST     2.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:37 PM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-2.4-2.9-3-2.8-2.1-0.21.72.42.41.90.9-0.3-1.2-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.9-0.71.22.22.11.70.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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