Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clark's Point, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

*A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the eastern Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village until 10PM this evening for hot, dry, and windy conditions.

*A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern Bristol Bay coast including the cities of Dillingham, Togiak, and Manokotak until 4AM Sunday. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected for these areas.

Discussion:

The forecast continues to remain on track. Big picture wise, the current synoptic setup consists of small craft front draped along and just south of the Western Aleutians (and exiting the region), surface high pressure across the north-central Bering, and a North Pacific low just south of the Alaska Peninsula with its front situated across Bristol Bay. Since the front near the Alaska Peninsula has moved inland, northeasterly to easterly Kamishak Gap winds have picked up this afternoon as expected, primarily for the Dillingham and Clarks Point area. Winds have gusted as high as 46 mph as of 3PM AKDT for Clarks Point. This corridor of winds extends westwards across Bristol Bay. A few rain showers have spilled over the northern Aleutian Range and western Alaska Range, but most of the precipitation continues to be mostly confined to the windward slopes. Chignik is still on track to see the most QPF out of this system with high confidence of seeing 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall through the rest of the weekend as the front stalls out. Farther north, mostly high clouds are seen on satellite streaming over the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley areas, but will do very little to mitigate fire weather concerns for the Kuskokwim Valley (Crooked Creek, Sleetmute, Stony River, and Lime Village)
through late this evening.

Winds are on track to quickly diminish early Sunday morning for the Bristol Bay coast as the front weakens, and henceforth, gap winds decrease as well. Meanwhile, across the Bering, a stout northerly flow already in place becomes enhanced as the pressure gradient between the surface high and the low just south of the Alaska Peninsula tightens. This interaction will increase winds across the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning, and subsequently increase gap winds through favored bays and passes along the Central Aleutians as the day progresses. As the parent low of the front impacting the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska becomes quasi-stationary Sunday morning, a fast moving area of low pressure in the Gulf will take a northwestward jog and move inland along the northern most area of the Alaska Peninsula. Similar to the first system, windward slopes of the mountains will see the bulk of this moisture, but showers are likely to spill over into the Kuskokwim Valley mid to late Sunday morning. Through Sunday afternoon, rainfall will continue to expand across Southwest Alaska, reaching the Kuskokwim Delta by noon Sunday and persisting into Monday morning. The overall pattern quiets down early next week as shower activity and coverage decreases for the Alaska Peninsula and surface high pressure builds from west to east across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain.

-AM/CL



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A broad upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf will gradually shift eastward through early next week while a low pressure system remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The interaction between these features will maintain a moist southerly flow across portions of Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. Periods of rain are expected across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound on Monday, with lighter precipitation extending westward at times into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island.

As the ridge axis shifts farther east, precipitation coverage is expected to diminish from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday.
Showers will become increasingly confined to Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while much of inland Southcentral trends drier with increasing breaks in the cloud cover.

By Thursday, guidance suggests a weak upper-level disturbance will track east across the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing an increase in cloud cover and scattered showers to parts of Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. Southcentral Alaska is expected to remain largely under the influence of weak ridging, with only isolated showers possible over the higher terrain.

On Friday, relatively quiet weather is expected to persist across most of Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures should remain near to slightly above seasonal normals, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers developing mainly over the mountains. Coastal areas, including Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, may continue to see lingering low clouds or a few light showers, but widespread precipitation appears unlikely. Forecast confidence decreases somewhat by the end of the period, though the overall pattern favors mild temperatures and relatively quiet conditions.

LM


AVIATION

PANC...Expect gusts around 25 kts through this evening before winds turn to the north around midnight tonight, lasting through early Sunday morning. However, as a front lifts over the area, winds aloft will be out of the southeast. Therefore, expect a period of low-level windshear while surface winds remain out of the north. Surface winds turn southeasterly by late morning Sunday to early afternoon, gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph at times.
Expect a few showers over the terminal between 12z to 18z Sunday before southeasterly flow strengthens, limiting precipitation from crossing the mountains. Southeast winds slowly diminish Sunday evening. Ceilings may approach the 5000 foot level between 12Z and 18Z.


FIRE WEATHER

For Southwest Alaska:

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EAST AND LIME VILLAGE...

Downslope compressional warming/drying easterly winds continue to gradually increase across the eastern Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village area this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s and relative humidity values dip into the 20-30% range.
Henceforth, Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for these areas until 10PM AKDT this evening. A North Pacific low has brought a front inland across the Alaska Peninsula with rainfall this afternoon, and mostly high clouds can be seen on satellite currently streaming over the eastern Kuskokwim Valley. A secondary area of low pressure is poised to move inland across the area from the Gulf, further enhancing cloud cover, which will allow for relative humidity values to recover tonight and Sunday morning.
Thus, there is high confidence that fire weather concerns will be alleviated starting late tonight and into Sunday. Rain showers are on track to move across the eastern Kuskokwim Valley Sunday morning, which will keep temperatures cooler and in the 60s to near 70 for most. Rain showers will continue through Sunday afternoon.

-AM