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PKZ762 Bristol Bay From Cape Chichagof To Cape Pierce Out To 15 Nm- 359 Pm Akst Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory through Monday night...
Tonight..N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Mon..N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed through Fri..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 040139 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 439 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

Relatively quiet weather continues for Southcentral Alaska this evening before a low entering the Gulf tonight makes for more active weather during the coming week. Northerly gap winds through the typical areas will be the main feature of note this evening before being joined by gales in the marine areas of the northern Gulf of Alaska and precipitation along the north Gulf coast Monday morning. With the low remaining out over the Gulf, slow to progress northward, cold air will remain entrenched near the surface over inland Southcentral. As a result, gap winds remain persistent around the same intensity through at least Wednesday.

On Tuesday, a relatively weak, neutrally-tilted trough pushes in over Western Alaska, drawing north mid-level moisture from the low in the Gulf and bringing snow to portions of Southcentral Alaska. The strength and progression of the trough will determine how it interacts with the Gulf low. With significant spread in how the models depicting this interaction, there is significant uncertainty in where the axis of precipitation ultimately sets up. The current most likely scenario puts the band of precipitation over the Copper River Basin, with a focus toward the western half. With cold air persisting inland, this could fall as potentially up to 6 inches of snow through Wednesday afternoon.
Higher amounts will be possible in the southern Copper River Basin & Thompson Pass, where more moisture is wrung out over the coastal mountains. Blowing snow is likely to be an additional hazard for Thompson Pass as cold air continues to filter out through gaps. While the forecast does not explicitly depict snow accumulation west of the Chugach Front Range and Talkeetna Mountains, there is a moderate chance that the edge of the precipitation will extend far enough west for some amount of snow to fall in Anchorage and parts of the Mat-Su Valleys.

By Wednesday, the low moves into the northeastern Gulf, drawing cold air across the Western Alaska Range. This cold air advection is likely to enhance gap winds in the western Gulf to borderline storm force. For Wednesday evening, this may begin to push precipitation eastward and eventually clear it out of Southcentral.

CQ

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow showers between Pilot Point up towards Togiak and Aniak and Bethel will continue to linger into the Monday morning. It will take a little longer for the snow to diminish for the Alaska Peninsula, where snow should end by Monday evening. An additional 1 to 4 inches in expected with higher amounts closer to the mountains. As the trough weakens and a large low pressure system moves into the Gulf, cold air will filter from north to southeast across the Alaska Peninsula Monday. Temperatures will likely trend cooler across the Southwestern Interior and spreading westward to the coast through the entire week. High end gale force winds with gusts to around 50 to 60 kts through bays and passes, between the Shumigan Islands and Kodiak Island. Wide Bay and Chignik area will continue to ramp up their winds on Wednesday.

Out across the Bering, a developing low with bring a robust front will move into the western Bering after midnight. Winds ahead of the initial front from 10 to 20 kts will quickly become disrupted with gale force winds just behind the front. Another low will follow quickly behind and keep gale force winds in the northwestern Bering and across the entire northern Bering through Wednesday. Considering NAM as an outlier going into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the majority of other lows are tracking further north of St Matthew Island toward St Lawrence. Should the low track further north, it could bring a brief period of slightly warmer temperatures more northward and also have slight changes in the wind field and precipitation downstream.

rux

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Thursday through Sunday

The beginning of the forecast works well with deterministic models through Day 5, but a change moving into ensemble models finishes better through the end of the period. The longwave trough over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska, slips slowly Southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska and the Eastern North Pacific. High pressure holds over the Russian Far East and Far Western Aleutians and Bering through the period. A moderately strong shortwave rotates over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska to help reorient the trough towards the Southwest by Sunday, with a number of weaker shortwaves to follow through the pattern. A closed low forms over Southern Mainland, and drifts to the East through the weekend.

Gustiest winds begin across the Bering and along the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, with gale force gap winds likely across the Alaska Peninsula and around Kodiak Island for Thursday and Friday. Winds work their way across the Gulf with possible gales developing over the Central Gulf late Friday into Saturday.
Widespread mixed precipitation spreads over the Bering through Sunday for the Aleutians, with snow more likely over portions of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. Southcentral areas should see more snow than rain, while moderate rainfall will continue over Southeast Alaska. In the Far West, an approaching North Pacific low brings locally heavy precipitation and gusty winds approaching gale force over the Western Aleutians through Sunday.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds generally 10 mph or less will persist.

AS

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Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:51 AM AKST     5.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 AM AKST     13.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:18 PM AKST     2.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:46 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 09:00 PM AKST     19.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point), Alaska, Tide feet

Snag Point
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Mon -- 03:58 AM AKST     4.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:04 AM AKST     13.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:06 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:47 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:25 PM AKST     2.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 09:49 PM AKST     19.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Snag Point, Nushagak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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