Sunday, September20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clark's Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday September 20, 2020 2:29 AM AKDT (10:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 350 Pm Akdt Sat Sep 19 2020
.gale warning Sunday night...
Tonight..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Mon and Mon night..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Tue..N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Wed..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clark's Point, AK
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location: 58.85, -158.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 200031 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 431 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A shortwave ridge axis extends from the north Pacific, through southwest Alaska, up through the center part of the state. This is in between a trough that extends from eastern Siberia through the central Aleutians, and an area of low pressure across the southern Gulf. Area radar imagery shows showers with this low moving northward through the Gulf Coast, with other showers trying to move into coastal locations of southwest Alaska as the aforementioned ridge breaks down.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The models are generally in good agreement at the surface and aloft over the next few days, leading to higher than average forecast confidence.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions along with southerly winds occasionally gusting into the 20 to 25 knot range will persist through this evening. MVFR ceilings are possible after 8z due to an increase in shower activity around the terminal. There is also some indication in the forecast guidance that IFR ceilings may develop over the terminal after 14z. Confidence in this is low, however, and is currently not included in the current TAF package.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sat afternoon through Tue afternoon) .

An upper level trough to our west will move in this evening, bringing increasing chances for rain across Southcentral. The greatest amount of precipitation will be along the northern Gulf coast and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. There are some showers lifting northward this afternoon over Prince William Sound and across the Susitna Valley, but as this trough moves in, rain is expected to become more widespread. Sunrise on Sunday morning may reveal sights of termination dust across the higher elevations of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains, as cooler temperatures aloft allow for overnight precipitation to fall as snow.

As the trough exits to the north Sunday afternoon, conditions should generally improve over the Susitna Valley, western Kenai Peninsula, and Anchorage Bowl, though a stray mountain shower cannot be ruled out. Additional rainfall is likely for the Prince William Sound area as well as across the Copper River Basin through Sunday night.

By Monday, the attention shifts westward, where a large low developing over the Bering moves toward the southeast and lifts a front across Kodiak Island early Monday. Abundant moisture and gusty easterly winds are likely, with gale force winds expected along the extent of this front across the Gulf waters. While the low center remains well south of Southcentral over the Gulf, the associated front will bring gusty winds and rain to the northern Gulf coast as it lifts northward Tuesday morning. Once again, the bulk of precipitation is expected to fall across Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast, while interior areas of Southcentral including the Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin should remain relatively dry through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Generally quiet conditions are expected through the weekend. Weak shortwave troughs are currently producing isolated showers across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. These will gradually taper off overnight under a weak upper level ridge. Combined with weak southerly flow, patchy fog and/or low stratus is possible near the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A similar pattern is expected for Sunday with weak shortwaves propagating over Southwest Alaska bringing isolated showers. A front associated with a low over the eastern Aleutians will bring gusty easterly winds to much of the region by Monday. As such, conditions will remain dry in the lee of the Alaska Range and temperatures will drop slightly, with lows well into the 30s over interior areas.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A broad low will move southeast across the Bering through the weekend. Its associated front will bring steady rain and gusty southerly winds across the Aleutians, while strong northwesterly winds and showers will develop on its backside. Cold air advection is starting to become more robust as the fall season approaches. The low will become vertically stacked near Unalaska on Sunday evening, thereby weakening. A cool, northwesterly flow will develop is its wake ahead of a developing ridge over the western Bering. Thus, showers will continue through early next week.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday).

Gulf of Alaska: A broad and strong storm system is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over the southern Gulf through Thursday. There is high confidence in Gale force winds over the northern Gulf coast with potential for storm force gusts if a secondary low is to develop in the lee of Kodiak Island on Tue. By late Wednesday night the low is expected to weaken, which will bring winds down to at or below small craft criteria.

Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands: There is high confidence that the broad low pressure system over the Gulf will bring moderate to strong northerly winds over the eastern Bering. The winds will be strongest (gale force) through the terrain gaps from Nikolski to Sand Point through Thursday morning. By this time winds should calm down to well below gale criteria as the low to the east breaks down. Over the western Bering, there is high confidence that high pressure and calm winds are expected to persist through Wed night. On Thursday confidence decreases significantly in regards to the next system, with models showing a 20 mb spread. If the stronger solutions comes to fruition, gale force winds are possible moving east across the Aleutian Chain Thursday night into Friday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday) .

A broad and strong low pressure system is expected to be centered over the Gulf at the start of the forecast period. The main impact from this system will be for the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island, where strong winds and rain are expected to persist through Wednesday afternoon. For Southcentral it should be mostly dry, with seasonal temperatures and the occasional shower as weak shortwaves move around the low center. On the backside of the low, strong winds and increasingly cool, northerly wind are expected to persist over the eastern Bering and coastal areas of Southwest through Thursday night. By Friday morning, an arctic trough is expected to move in from the Bering Strait, which will cool off the Bering considerably through Saturday.

The main forecast question is in regards to the next system forecast to move over/near the central Aleutians Thursday night. Forecast confidence decreases considerably due to a large model spread in both the location and strength of this system. The GFS and Canadian models have a storm force low clipping the central Aleutians on Friday as it rapidly moves east into the Gulf by Saturday morning. The primary difference between these solutions and the EC, which has a considerably weaker system, is whether or not jet remains zonal or becomes slightly meridional. If the jet is to become meridional, then the storm will have a better chance of tapping into the strong temperature gradient N/S of the Aleutian Chain to produce a stronger storm. Regardless, model agreement and forecast confidence increases once again Saturday, with a strong system moving into the Gulf.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 160 172-175 177 179 411-414. Storm Warning 176 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PADL

Wind History from ADL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5------------------W4W3NW3W4W3W7S5SW3W4--SW6W5CalmSW7
1 day ago6434Calm544S54SW9SW6SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point), Alaska
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Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:49 AM AKDT     19.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:17 PM AKDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:10 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:37 PM AKDT     20.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.83.47.111.615.618.319.117.514.19.75.21.5-0.50.13.38.213.217.52020.318.414.810.66.5

Tide / Current Tables for Snag Point, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Snag Point
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Sun -- 12:59 AM AKDT     1.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM AKDT     19.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:11 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:24 PM AKDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:26 PM AKDT     20.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.536.911.71618.819.217.4149.75.41.8-0.30.13.38.413.718.120.420.318.214.610.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.