Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Covenant Life, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 121452 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 652 AM AKDT Mon May 12 2025

SHORT TERM
Clear and drier weather continues across the majority of the panhandle this morning, with warmer temperatures still impacting the panhandle for today. An upper level ridge currently over the Gulf will become flattened and move to a more zonal pattern during the day today, bringing some more onshore flow this morning. The southern panhandle will again see highs in the 60s for today as skies are expected to stay clear until this evening. The northern and central panhandle however will begin to see some precipitation as a front over the Gulf moves eastward.
This front will impact the northern coast and Yakutat in the afternoon, before moving over the northern panhandle by this evening. The rainfall rates will be light across the panhandle during this system, and QPF amounts are expected to be highest for Yakutat and Juneau with between 0.25 and 0.5 inches in the next 24 hours. The rest of the panhandle however is expected to see less than a quarter of an inch by tonight.

Currently the winds across the panhandle are largely light, with only a few areas seeing some 15 kt winds this morning. Winds are expected to increase as the front moves in along the coast, and as the pressure gradient in the northern panhandle begins to tighten we will see some stronger winds along Lynn Canal and up through Skagway. Both the HRRR and HRRR pressure gradient guidance show values between -3.0 and -4.0 for tonight for PAGY-PAJN, while the NBM is in agreement with values between -3.0 to -3.5 also for the Skagway Juneau gradient, with the highest values being between 00Z and 09Z on the 13th as for the potential timing of the strongest winds. Skagway as such is likely to see some gusts up to 40 mph for this time period tonight. For more information on the marine conditions for today and winds in the channels, read the marine section below.

LONG TERM
The active weather pattern returns to the panhandle through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, though breaks will be present between systems.

A cold front successfully pushing through the ridge which had built over the area on Sunday/Monday will arrive through the latter half of Monday, and linger through the first half of Tuesday. Having seen its strength substantially weakened by its passage across the northern flank of the ridge over the Gulf, what is left of the front will have primarily focused in the northern panhandle and along the outer coast. Rain looks unimpressive, with minor accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch over 24 hours, mainly for west facing mountains and with the heaviest totals clustered around the northern half of the area. The negatively tilted shortwave trough associated with the the front will work its way to the surface, leading to breezy conditions for the Icy Strait Corridor northward.

In the wake of the front, the ridge will briefly rebuild, and Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning will be a transient break between systems, though a few lingering showers are possible still on Tuesday. A stronger front from a low in the central to western gulf looks to move in from the SW Wednesday evening, bringing widespread breezy and wet conditions. Unlike the previous front, this looks to be a warm front, and will be complete with more robust moisture support, although still nothing too exceptional. The breeziest conditions look to be in the coastline communities and the southern panhandle communities. Not anticipating particularly breezy conditions in the far northern inner channels, as the front looks to weaken as it arrives, meaning the mountains look to block much of the energy from moving inland. Onshore flow then continues through Saturday, keeping chances of rain across the area to close out the week.
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