Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Platinum, AK

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:49PM Monday August 19, 2019 6:42 AM AKDT (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 9:57AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Platinum, AK
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location: 59.05, -161.82     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 191427
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
627 am akdt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
High rivers across the tanana river basin from shaw creek to the
city of tanana will continue for the next several days, with most
rivers either reaching there crest today, or starting to fall.

Flood warnings remain for the chena river upstream of the moose
creek dam, and for the salcha river. Flood advisories remain for
low lying areas along the tanana river from shaw creek to the city
of tanana,for the nenana river from anderson to the city of
nenana, and for low lying areas areas along the chena river from
the moose creek dam to fairbanks. Ground water flooding seeping
into basements is possible in all of these areas through the
week.

A cooler pattern will be in store for most of northern alaska
later this week, with the interior seeing temperatures falling
and chances of precipitation increasing through wed, then remain
cool and wet into the weekend.

Aloft...

the long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over the bering
ne russia and the chukchi sea, and a deep trough from the pole
south over western canada. A series of short wave trough dropping
south from the high arctic over western alaska will cause this
pattern to retrograde over the next several days with the trough
covering most of mainland alaska by wed, and then remaining there
into the weekend. This means that northern alaska will cool over
the next several days, and then remain well below normal from wed
into the weekend.

A deep low aloft near inuvik will move to demarcation point by
4am tue, then near atigun pass by 4pm tue, then dropping into the
central interior by 4am Wed and to the central alaska range by
4pm wed. This will bring much colder air southwest over the
interior, along with high chance of rain, and possibly snow above
3000 ft. Expect 2-3 inches of snow in the brooks range above 3000
ft tonight into Tue from this feature. Could see snow over summits
above 3000 ft in the interior and alaska range on Tue night and
wed.

Surface..

A 1019 mb low in the bering strait will move to the yukon delta as
a 1014 mb low by 4pm tue, and then into bristol bay as a 1008 mb
low by 4am tue. Rain will move SE across SW ak with this feature
today.

A 1017 mb low in mackenzie bay will move to near barter island as
a 1014 mb low by 4am tue, then to near coldfoot at a 1007 mb low
by 4pm tue, to near nenanan as a 1003 mb low by 4am wed, and to
the eastern alaska range as a 1003 mb low by 4pm wed. A low
pressure trough extending north from this low will move west to
point barrow by 4pm tue, then weaken in place.

Expect rain and snow with this low over the eastern north slope
today and tonight, and into early tue. Expect isolateded showers
over NE interior ahead of this low today and tonight, becoming
scattered showers on tue, and then a high chance of rain on tue
night and wed. The highest chances will be near the low center.

Snow levels will be falling to 3000 ft Tue night and wed, so could
see snow over interior highway summits, and highest parts of the
denali park road Tue night and wed.

Discussion
Models initialize well aloft, and show similar sollutions aloft
through 4am tue. After that time, the ecmf is faster than the gfs
and NAM in taking the low aloft near demarcation point to the
southwest over the interior. Prefer the fast ecmf solution as it
has been more consistent then the NAM and GFS in moving this
feature sw, and also due to a number of short waves that are
moving from the high arctic south over western alaska and pulling
the long wave trough west, and thus pulling this low aloft to the
southwest more quickly as well. Prefer the ecmf precipitation
field for areal coverage as it moves precip to the SW over the
interior more quickly in line with the low aloft, especially from
tue into wed.

At the surface at 06z, all models verify several mb too weak on
the high over the northern chukchi sea, and about 4 mb too weak on
the low in the southern beaufort sea. This means that west winds
over the eastern arctic coast are about 3-5 kt stronger than
models indicate through today, then diminishing tonight as the low
moves over the area, and turning east on Tue as the low moves
southwest over the interior as shown by the ecmf which has the low
tracking SW with the low aloft as would be expected.

Bottom line is we will move precip and cold air over the eastern
interior more quickly Tue and Wed as indicated by the ecmf, and up
winds over the eastern arctic coast 3-5 kt today to account for a
stronger gradients than models indicate.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...

a 500-600 mile fetch of the chukchi sea with n-nw winds blowing
20-25 kt from Thu and Fri into Sat is expected to cause elevated
surf at shishmaref and the bering strait Thu into the weekend.

At this time do not expect high surf as it normally requires winds
25kt or greater, but there normally is not a 500+ mile fetch
length for several days, so this will need to be watched as we get
closer to thu, fri.

Fire weather
Expect today to have winds less than 15 mph, highs in the 50s and
lower 60s, and rh 30-40%, with higher rh NE of ft yukon and along
the west coast. Will see slight cooling and higher rh tue, and
more significant cooling and wetter conditions on wed. Expect
conditions to remain colder than normal through the weekend with
rh above 40%.

Hydrology
Rainfall between Thursday and Saturday was over 1 inch in the
area south of circle to tanana (excluding the fortymile basin
which was drier), with 2 inches over most of the area south of
wonder lake to fairbanks to the gerstle river, and 3 to 4 inches
along the alaska range between the delta junction and denali, with
the eielson visitor center come in at 4 inches. Most of this rain
fell in a 24 hours period between early Fri morning and Saturday
morning. Most of the water has moved out of streams and into
larger rivers. The nenana river has a flood advisory, with minor
flooding occuring in the city of nenana, and that flooding is
expected to continue for several more days. The tanana river has a
flood advisory from shaw creek all the way to the city of tanana
with flooding in low lying areas along the tanana river, which
will last for several more days. This includes the rosie creek
subdivision near fairbanks.

The little chena and goodpaster rivers crested Sat below bankfull
and the threat of flooding is over on both of those rivers. The
upper chena river crested Saturday at minor flood stage, and the
chena river near hunts creek crested Sunday near minor flood
stage and remains high but is falling slowly. The chena river at
the moose creek dam is cresting now at minor flood stage and will
remain that high today. The dam began operation Sunday night and
will keep waters backed up through today at least. The chena river
between the dam and fairbanks will crest today below bankfull, but
will remain high for several more days. Minor flooding in the
steamboat landing and freeman road areas is expected, as well as
along other old sloughs along the chena river. The salcha river
crested Sunday over a foot above flood stage, which is the highest
water level on the salcha river since 2014.

Ground water flooding into basements is occuring in the salcha
area, and could occur in north pole and fairbanks, and at any low
lying areas along the tanana river and the chena river. The water
table in all of these areas will remain high for at least several
more days.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Flood warning for akz222-akz223
flood advisory for akz221-akz223
small craft advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.

Jb aug 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEH

Wind History from AEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6
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CalmCalmS19Calm--------CalmS17
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Calm--------------

Tide / Current Tables for Goodnews Bay entrance, Alaska
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Goodnews Bay entrance
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Mon -- 01:01 AM AKDT     6.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM AKDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:09 PM AKDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:49 PM AKDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.46.76.35.44.12.71.61.21.62.43.44.45.15.45.24.43.42.21.311.52.53.74.9

Tide / Current Tables for Carter Spit, Alaska
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Carter Spit
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Mon -- 01:21 AM AKDT     8.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM AKDT     1.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:58 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:29 PM AKDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 PM AKDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.98.68.47.564.22.51.51.52.43.75.16.36.96.96.24.93.52.11.31.42.445.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.