Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mud Bay, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 152241 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 241 PM AKDT Thu May 15 2025

SHORT TERM
A quick peak at satellite earlier today showed a moist occluded front moving into our coast, with widespread but light rain enveloping communities through the morning hours. As mentioned in the overnight shift the southern Panhandle looked to see heavier precip; QPF totals were adjusted accordingly. For the most part, winds Thursday matched forecast expectations, with satellite derived winds and observations indicated gale force for Dixon Entrance and some areas along our coast. More details in marine section. Today’s system is supported by a shortwave trough ejecting into the area helping push the triple point low north and east,with the increased winds from this afternoon diminishing overnight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. For the most part winds diminish Friday; however, there will be a southerly push of moderate to fresh breezes impacting Lynn Canal, Chatham, and Clarence through Friday afternoon. Touching on QPF, while a very wet pattern for this time of year emerges for the central and southern region, 24 hour QPF totals will remain under 1.5 inches with the exception of Ketchikan where gages will likely report 2 inches from Thursday into Friday.


LONG TERM
Light precipitation lingers into Saturday morning diminishing throughout the day. This allows for a brief break from the rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning with ridging over the panhandle. This break comes to an end as a low moves east across the southern panhandle stalling west-southwest of POW. The focus of this low will be winds increasing near Haida Gwaii into Clarence Strait. Near Gale winds of 25 to 30 kts will develop around this low with Gale force wind gusts. Total rain amounts remain below an inch with ensembles showing less than a 60% chance of receiving an inch of rain over the southern panhandle in 24 hours. The heaviest rain rates are expected Monday morning. During this time, the northern part of the panhandle remains dry with winds at or below 10 to 15 kts. Some differences in models show the location of the low either moving slightly north, or continuing to move southeast. If the low moves slightly more north, more of the panhandle could receive rain. After the low dissipates, light rain with breaks, will continue into mid to late week next week.
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