Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mud Bay, AK
March 28, 2024 12:42 PM AKDT (20:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 11:49 PM Moonset 6:02 AM |
PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 923 Am Akdt Thu Mar 28 2024
updated
Rest of today - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri - N wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night - S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat - S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun - S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
updated
PKZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Juneau, AK
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FXAK67 PAJK 281405 AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 605 AM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SHORT TERM
Quiet weather across the panhandle through the day, as northerly outflow and ridging aloft help keep the panhandle free of precipitation. Although some areas have experienced fog, it has far less widespread than the previous night. Some cloud cover is likely through the day, especially for the southern panhandle, but not enough to fully impede diurnal heating.
Temperatures will reach into the 50s across much of the panhandle through the day, before dropping back into the 20s and 30s on Thursday night.
LONG TERM
/Friday through Monday/...Extremely minor changes to the overall long term package. A warm frontal band is still expected to move into the region late Friday night and extend over the panhandle Saturday morning. With this trough, expect some temperatures to drop and snow chances to increase. Expect these chances to remain mostly marginal and quickly diminished with the incoming warm front Saturday morning. Behind the warm front on Saturday, a stronger warm front pushes in from a strong low near Kodiak Island. Along with warmer temperatures, moderate rainfall, mainly targeted at the NE gulf coast, will push in alongside the front. Behind the front, continued onshore flow and deep moisture will ensure upslope rainfall will continue through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance indicate that 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected for the Yakutat area in a 24 hour period, with a higher percentage of models near the 1.5 inch mark. There does exist a 10% chance of above 2 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, but this scenario was not weighted heavily. Rainfall rates are expected to be around 0.10 - 0.12 per hour at the heaviest.
For changes, brought up QPF slightly to reflect above discussion on rainfall totals. Furthermore, brought up winds Saturday night in the inner channels to reflect the stronger trough moving into the Yukon. There is increasing potential for gusts up to 50 mph in Skagway as the trough passes north, and small craft winds up to 30 knots in Lynn Canal. Otherwise, warm temperature will keep conditions mild and more importantly, keep precipitation type as mostly rain for sea level communities.
Beyond Monday, models are showing a cooling trend and therefore some potential for snow in the forecast. Currently keeping daytime highs above freezing due to the early April sun angle, but will need to be looked at for potential timing changes.
AVIATION
/Until 12Z Friday/...Primarily VFR CIG and VIS flight conditions are expected through the entire 24-hour TAF period for all of the Alaskan Panhandle except for some pockets of patchy fog, which may reduce VIS and CIG conditions down into the IFR flight category into the mid-morning hours Thursday. SFC wind and LLWS values look to remain benign through the forecast period.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 605 AM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SHORT TERM
Quiet weather across the panhandle through the day, as northerly outflow and ridging aloft help keep the panhandle free of precipitation. Although some areas have experienced fog, it has far less widespread than the previous night. Some cloud cover is likely through the day, especially for the southern panhandle, but not enough to fully impede diurnal heating.
Temperatures will reach into the 50s across much of the panhandle through the day, before dropping back into the 20s and 30s on Thursday night.
LONG TERM
/Friday through Monday/...Extremely minor changes to the overall long term package. A warm frontal band is still expected to move into the region late Friday night and extend over the panhandle Saturday morning. With this trough, expect some temperatures to drop and snow chances to increase. Expect these chances to remain mostly marginal and quickly diminished with the incoming warm front Saturday morning. Behind the warm front on Saturday, a stronger warm front pushes in from a strong low near Kodiak Island. Along with warmer temperatures, moderate rainfall, mainly targeted at the NE gulf coast, will push in alongside the front. Behind the front, continued onshore flow and deep moisture will ensure upslope rainfall will continue through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance indicate that 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected for the Yakutat area in a 24 hour period, with a higher percentage of models near the 1.5 inch mark. There does exist a 10% chance of above 2 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, but this scenario was not weighted heavily. Rainfall rates are expected to be around 0.10 - 0.12 per hour at the heaviest.
For changes, brought up QPF slightly to reflect above discussion on rainfall totals. Furthermore, brought up winds Saturday night in the inner channels to reflect the stronger trough moving into the Yukon. There is increasing potential for gusts up to 50 mph in Skagway as the trough passes north, and small craft winds up to 30 knots in Lynn Canal. Otherwise, warm temperature will keep conditions mild and more importantly, keep precipitation type as mostly rain for sea level communities.
Beyond Monday, models are showing a cooling trend and therefore some potential for snow in the forecast. Currently keeping daytime highs above freezing due to the early April sun angle, but will need to be looked at for potential timing changes.
AVIATION
/Until 12Z Friday/...Primarily VFR CIG and VIS flight conditions are expected through the entire 24-hour TAF period for all of the Alaskan Panhandle except for some pockets of patchy fog, which may reduce VIS and CIG conditions down into the IFR flight category into the mid-morning hours Thursday. SFC wind and LLWS values look to remain benign through the forecast period.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
HAXA2 | 5 mi | 30 min | W 5.1G | 51°F | ||||
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK | 17 mi | 78 min | NNE 7G | 45°F | 29.82 | 32°F | ||
ERXA2 | 17 mi | 30 min | N 6G | 47°F | 34°F | |||
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK | 20 mi | 54 min | 55°F | 40°F | 29.80 | |||
SKXA2 | 20 mi | 29 min | N 8G | 53°F | 27°F | |||
LIXA2 | 47 mi | 30 min | NNE 2.9G | 46°F | 37°F | |||
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK | 56 mi | 76 min | 0G | 53°F | 36°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
PAHN HAINES,AK | 8 sm | 48 min | WNW 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 28°F | 40% | 29.81 | |
PAGY SKAGWAY,AK | 20 sm | 49 min | NE 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 25°F | 32% | 29.78 |
Tide / Current for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska, Tide feet
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