Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Tuesday through Thursday)...

A fast moving, weak low continues to bring light rain and snow to the Alaska Peninsula and light snow across the Bristol Bay region.
Additional snow accumulations are expected to be no more than a trace to a couple inches for areas of Bristol Bay from Dillingham eastward toward Koliganek. Gusty northwest winds from 30 to 40 mph on the backside of the low are expected to continue through this evening for the AKPen before the low moves into the western Gulf.
A ridge of high pressure across the Aleutians today will continue to shift eastward over southwest Alaska for Thursday, bringing slightly higher temperature and clear skies ahead of the next system.

Further west, a strong Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians tonight, bringing gale and storm force winds for the western and central Aleutians through Wednesday as the front moves northeastward. Wind gusts through the central Aleutian gaps are forecasted to range from 50 to 60 knots and persist into Thursday morning. As the front lifts northwards into the Bering Sea by Thursday afternoon, a large swath of gale force winds are expected from the Pribilof Islands to Nunivak Island as well as much of the Southwestern Alaskan coast. The lifting front will also bring strong southeasterly gradient-driven winds through Kamishak Gap, bringing gale to storm force wind gusts to areas such as Iliamna and Koliganek. Precipitation beginning tomorrow morning as snow and a rain/snow mix will switch quickly to all rain by the afternoon hours for the Western Aleutians.
Precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening in the Central Aleutians as snow will change to rain by the late evening hours. A brief period of accumulating snow is likely in the Pribilof Islands early Thursday morning before switching to a rain/snow mix and then rain Thursday afternoon. As precipitation reaches southwest Alaska by Thursday evening, strong southeasterly flow should keep typically downsloped regions relatively dry with the heaviest precipitation falling in higher elevations and in the Kuskokwim Delta, mainly west of Bethel. Temperatures are expected to remain cold enough for these regions to see accumulating snow through Friday morning before switching to a possible rain/snow mix as precipitation tapers off.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Starting Thursday, a high amplitude weather pattern will push in across the state with upper level ridging extending from the Gulf of Alaska through the interior and up to the Bering Straight. This feature will slowly shift eastward through the long term forecast period being pushed by a broad upper level trough moving from the Aleutians to the Arctic through the Bering Sea. As the system traverses northward, gale-force gusts and moderate snow transitioning to rain are expected for Southwest Alaska from Thursday through Saturday.

Southerly onshore flow will bring moderately strong wind and precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians Thursday before progressing eastward to the Alaska Peninsula on Friday and finally across the Southcentral coast through the weekend. Shortwaves moving through the flow will enhance rains along coastal locations, with locally heavy snow over higher elevations from the Alaska Peninsula to Prince William Sound. Areas of snow in leeward locations like the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su are possible at the end of the forecast period, but downsloping will likely limit significant accumulation.

A new system from the North Pacific will bring another round of increased winds and precipitation to the Western and Central Aleutians beginning Sunday morning.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist through much of the TAF period. Cloud cover will move in this afternoon and stay above 5000 ft. There is a slight chance for light snow Wednesday afternoon, though some uncertainty remains.
Snow accumulation would be less than an inch.