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PKZ730 West Of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- 309 Pm Akst Tue Dec 5 2023
.storm warning tonight...
Tonight..NW wind 55 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
Wed..NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
Wed night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu and Thu night..W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Fri..W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 060200 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 PM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad region of low pressure south of Middleton Island will slowly consolidate as it moves towards Prince William Sound through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves east through early Thursday morning. The combination of these two features will generate a deformation band and light to moderate snow from the Mat Valley south through Anchorage and into the Kenai Mountains. To the east, the surface low and associated lift will bring periods of snow to the southern and central Copper Valley, Valdez, and eventually Cordova late Wednesday as colder air wraps in from the west. As mentioned in previous discussions, there has been considerable model disagreement, but all the solutions have moved towards that of the GFS and ECMWF. As such, there is a 60-70% chance that Anchorage and areas of the Mat Valley will get 2-5 inches of snow, with up to 8 inches at higher elevations along the Hillside. Much lower accumulations are still possible should the area of deformation set up farther to the east. The GFS solution continues the snow and deformation for a longer period of time, which would result in up to 12 inches in areas, but current forecast thinking is that the cold air advection on the backside of the system should be enough to kick the parent trough farther to the east.

Winds associated with this system will remain strong for at least the next 24 hours through Whittier, Seward, and Thompson Pass.
Intermittent snow through Thompson Pass in combination with winds gusting 40 to 60 mph will produce blizzard conditions at times.
For Whittier, temperatures hovering between 28 and 32 degrees may be too warm to produce true blizzard conditions, but residents there should prepare for the possibility. Seward is not expected to receive enough snow for blizzard conditions, but strong and gusty winds will persist.

Moving into Thursday there will be little break in between systems. A deep upper low near Norton Sound will bring in strong cold air advection from the southwest, generating a low at the triple point south of the Kenai Peninsula Thursday around midday.
The trough will then take on a negative tilt as the surface low advances into the western Prince William Sound Thursday evening.
Expect widespread light to moderate snow down to sea level throughout all of Southcentral. Temperatures aloft will cool considerably, down to -10 to -16C at 850mb, which will generate low density snow.

-Jones

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Friday)...

A look at the large scale pattern shows a deep mature low in the Gulf of Alaska and a flattened ridge over the Aleutians/southern Bering Sea with a deep upper low and trough tracking out of eastern Russia and into the northern Bering Sea. Strong northwesterly gap winds are being observed along the south side of the Alaska Peninsula due to strong pressure gradients and cold air advection. A weak upper level short-wave will cross the northern Peninsula late this afternoon into evening, which is when winds will peak in the coastal waters immediately south of Kodiak Island. Winds will then diminish later this evening, but there will be another uptick in winds for this area overnight through early Wednesday as a weak short-wave and reinforcing shot of cold air move through. However, winds will not be nearly as strong as today. Gap winds will then come to en end by late Wednesday afternoon as flow backs around toward the west to southwest ahead of the low crossing the northern Bering Sea. There will be some freezing spray along the south side of the Alaska Peninsula tonight through Wednesday morning, but SSTs are still relatively warm (lower 40s) and air temperatures are not all that cold (mid to upper 20s), so the freezing spray will be light.

Meanwhile, a showery regime will prevail across the Bering Sea, Aleutians and Southwest Alaska for the next few days. While there are currently some weak upper short-waves crossing the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska, the main weather maker will be the storm system crossing the northern Bering. A strong upper level short-wave on the back side of the low will dig southeastward across the Bering Sea Wednesday and across the Alaska Peninsula into the Pacific Thursday. Arctic air will accompany the trough southward, with 850mb temperatures bottoming out at roughly -12 to -18 degrees for most of the region on Thursday. There will be periods of blowing snow with low visibilities for coastal areas.
Because of the showery nature of the precipitation, visibility will tend to go up and down with only brief periods of the worst conditions. Temperatures will steadily trend downward over the next few days as the Arctic airmass settles in. Based on the track of the upper level short-wave and area of strongest cold air advection, weather along the Aleutian chain will be a little quieter, with less where activity and less wind compared with other areas.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Saturday through Tuesday

In the West, high pressure extends into the Russian Far East, bringing gale force winds to the Western and Central Aleutians.
The main axis of the longwave trough over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska wobbles and briefly reorients as a number of significant shortwaves rotate through the region. A closed center in the middle of the trough weakens as it drifts slowly around the Southwestern Mainland through Tuesday. Forecast confidence is mixed as deterministic models work initially, but ensembles work through the end of the forecast period. Colder air with the trough helps keep most precipitation as snow showers over the Aleutians, Bering and the Mainland Alaska. Locally heavy rains invade the Southern portions of the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island and Southcentral, as Pacific lows are deflected into the Gulf. Gale force gap winds, with local areas of storm force winds spread from the Eastern Aleutians, over the AKPEN and around Kodiak Island.

Additional moisture from a North Pacific low as it comes close along the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavier precipitation spreads eastward with the low's track, along with gale force winds. As the lows move into the Gulf, the Eastern portions of Southcentral could see heavier periods of precipitation, and locally gusty winds approaching gales for Tuesday.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC
PANC
VFR ceilings with sct to bkn 5-10 kft deck will gradually fill in and lower overnight with MVFR and possible IFR deck by 12- 15Z. A round of light snow is expected to spread into the terminal Wed morning with periodic decreases in visibility through 21-00Z.

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Nordyke Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:01 AM AKST     3.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:43 AM AKST     11.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:30 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:04 PM AKST     6.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:21 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM AKST     9.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Iliamna Bay
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Tue -- 12:24 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 AM AKST     3.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:45 AM AKST     11.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:53 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:29 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:58 PM AKST     5.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:15 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM AKST     9.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Iliamna Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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