Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Graham, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The large upper level low remains centered over the YK-Delta this afternoon as it interacts with the occluded low lifting north in the Gulf. With it bringing in colder air aloft, lapse rates have steepened, potentially leading to increased shower activity this afternoon mainly over and along the foothills of the Kuskokwim Mountains. As the low in the Gulf moves inland Sunday and is absorbed by the large upper level system, precipitation currently situated over the Alaska Range will begin to shift west into the Southwest Interior. Model guidance also hints at scattered showers through Sunday across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.
Temperatures will be cold enough during the morning hours to support snow showers, but rain will begin to mix in as surface temperatures warm to near or above 40F Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, looking westward, a low emerging just south of Kamchatka will send a front across the Western Aleutians with rainfall and gusty winds Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.
Current thinking is that the front will be on a weakening trend as it moves across the area, but still high end small craft with gusts to gale force winds are still likely from Shemya to Adak.
Models show the front weakening further Monday morning and becoming increasingly elongated as the parent low moves southeastward and tracks along the Aleutian Chain.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement early on with an active and progressive pattern through the long term forecast.
Models become somewhat divergent at the end of the week which suggests lower confidence towards the end of the forecast period.

A low pressure system will remain positioned over the southern Bering Sea early in the period, driving moist southerly flow into the northern Gulf of Alaska. This will bring enhanced rainfall and mountain snow to Southcentral Alaska particularly from the eastern Alaska Peninsula, across the Kenai Peninsula and into the Prince William Sound region, through Thursday morning. The low will gradually weaken, but a second system is forecasted to approach the northern Gulf and Alaska Peninsula later in the week, bringing another round of precipitation to these same coastal areas at the start of the weekend. Across the Bering Sea and Aleutian islands, the initial low will maintain generally active marine conditions, though widespread heavy precipitation is not expected in the far western zones.

Deeper moisture associated with the first low will support heavier rainfall totals along the Southcentral coast and heavy snow accumulations in the higher terrain through the latter half of the week. Some gap winds may develop through the Alaska Range early on but are not expected to reach hazardous strength.
Overall, the pattern favors periods of unsettled weather across Southcentral and Western Alaska, with potential for significant mountain snow in favored spots and additional coastal rain as the second low arrives towards the weekend.

AVIATION

PANC...Periodic light rain showers may persist into this evening.
Low cloud ceilings below 1000' are expected through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. Cloud ceilings will rise to or above 5000 ft after ~04Z.