Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goodnews Bay, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated showers today through Saturday, greatest chance in the Eastern Interior on Saturday.

- Breezy east-northeast winds continue today but weaken through the afternoon and overnight.

- Warming trend continues with highs in the mid 60s across many of the Interior Valleys this weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet and mild weather persists today and most of tomorrow.

- A low from the northwest drops in, bringing isolated showers to the West Coast Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday.

- Isolated showers move to the Western Interior on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures continues for most of the area through the forecast period.

- A few rain and snow showers move towards the NW Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range on Sunday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 990 mb low in Bristol Bay is the main feature around the state.
There is an exiting 1026 mb high centered just south of the Canadian Archipelago which extends westward into the Interior and northwest into the Arctic. Generally, lower pressure will overcome much of the state bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend and especially next week as the atmosphere moistens.

FIRE WEATHER
Very dry once again this afternoon. We over-estimated min RHs yesterday as some spots got down into the upper teens. Min RHs will likely drop to 15-20% again today, especially in the Middle Tanana Valley. Most of the area will remain dry, but there is a slight chance for a shower over the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. This shower chance continues tomorrow with the highest chances coming on Saturday as the atmosphere gradually moistens. There is little to no chance of wetting rains. Min RHs will gradually increase to 25-30% this weekend with overnight recoveries around 45-65% tonight and tomorrow night, then 55-75% this weekend. The areas with the lowest max RHs will be in the Middle Tanana Valley.
Temperatures will be increasing into the mid 60s by this weekend.
Next week, we will be monitoring for increased chances for thunderstorms across the Interior. There seems to be a risk for storms most days next week as of now.

HYDROLOGY
The Yukon River is open from Tanana to downstream of Mountain Village as of Wednesday afternoon. Ice runs from upstream of Tanana continue as ice degrades between Beaver and Rampart and heavy ice runs are still being seen along many reaches of the Yukon. Water levels remain low and no flooding is anticipated.

For Buckland River: - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of intact ice and open water and beyond that mostly open conditions towards the headwaters. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from Buckland, including at known jam points.

-A local observer reports that water has come up two feet overnight 5/14 to 5/15, six more feet of rise will bring water levels over bank. Snow melt in the basin brings the potential for flooding as early as Friday if the intact ice below Buckland is strong enough to resist the push of water and ice.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A relatively quiet pattern with no major systems expected, but we will be monitoring for daily thunderstorms beginning on Monday and continuing through the rest of the week in the Interior. This may be the start of our daily thunderstorm watch this summer. The pattern looks ripe for at least increased chances for thunderstorms each day next week. Temperatures look to be rising, especially in the Interior with highs potentially pushing 70 degrees or higher by the end of next week and into next weekend.
There are no significant wetting rain chances expected for the Interior.

For the West Coast though, we will be monitoring the chance for a Bering Sea low which could bring widespread wetting rains by the end of next week. The exact track of this low is uncertain and low confidence but there is the chance for something floating around the Bering Sea. There is also a chance that this low follows climatological norms and dips into the Gulf of Alaska leading to little to no rain. This is something that will be monitored closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-816-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.