Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kokhanok, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

The strong storm system which affected the region is now nearly stationary over the central Bering Sea. The low is vertically stacked and slowly weakening with time, leading to diminishing winds. The cold front which swept across Southwest AK today weakened significantly as it exited toward the western Interior.
A showery regime with locally gusty winds can be found behind the front, with the bulk of precipitation over the Bering Sea.

The upper level low in the Bering Sea has taken the place of the previous low from a couple days ago and will now anchor the long- wave trough. The subtropical jet stream over the North Pacific remains quite robust (~145kt or so). This will support continued cyclogenesis near the left exit region of the jet, with lows being steered northward toward the eastern Bering Sea and southern AK. Prior to that, however, a weak low will form south of the western Aleutian chain tonight as a short-wave rounding the Bering low digs into the North Pacific. The upper jet to the south will quickly continue eastward and lead to cyclogenesis downstream.
As a result, the first low will remain quite weak as it lifts north to the central Aleutians Tuesday. The main impact will be an uptick in southerly gap winds for the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula, along with another round of rain.

The second low which forms in the Pacific will be in a favorable location to deepen and will take a further east track to near Chignik (along the south side of the Alaska Peninsula) on Wednesday. A leading gale force front will lift northward across the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will bring strong and gusty easterly winds on the order of 40 to 55 mph to much of the Bristol Bay region. The bulk of rain with this system will be confined to upslope areas, including the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and areas north and west of Dillingham.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

There is loose agreement with ensemble guidance that an upper level trough will move from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska Friday through Monday. Operational guidance shows variations of this setup but has poor agreement with regards to timing of surface features.

Ridging looks to develop behind the Bering trough Friday and move eastward from the Western Aleutians to the Central Aleutians as it weakens. Expect quieter weather across these areas while underneath the ridge. Meanwhile, troughing will linger across the north Gulf Coast through Sunday with rain continuing along the coast of Southcentral with diurnal showers developing across portions of Southwest through Monday. A North Pacific front looks to lift northward through the Gulf Sunday and Monday with spread on the track of the low center itself ranging from remaining south in the North Pacific to a more northerly track into the central Gulf to near Kodiak Island. Regardless of the low track, the Alaska Peninsula to Kodiak Island look to be the wettest with more uncertainty in the precipitation forecast for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf Coast due to just how far north the front will end up lifting.

AVIATION

PANC.. MVFR to VFR conditions will become all VFR by late this evening as drier air works in behind a cold front pushing through Southcentral Alaska. More steady rain will become more showery this afternoon then gradually winding down tonight. Turnagain Arm winds will continue to bend into the terminal over the next few hours then quickly die off behind the front.