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PKZ053 Yakutat Bay- 348 Am Akst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory late this morning through late tonight...
Today..E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft. S swell in the afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..E wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain.
Thursday..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell in the morning. Rain.
Thursday night..E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
Friday..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Saturday..E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Sunday..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 282315 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 215 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2023

SHORT TERM
/Through Wednesday night/...Clear and quiet skies from today should last into tonight around SE AK. Main concern tonight is for fog development before clouds move back in during the overnight.

Then comes the passing of the next front. The marine impacts are detailed below in the Marine section. Northerly winds ahead of a gale force front will bring in below freezing to near freezing temperatures to the northern panhandle tonight and Wednesday.
Wednesday afternoon, a front will bring moisture to the panhandle that will last into Thursday. As this moisture collides with the cold air in the north, snow is likely.

While most areas will see snow or a rain/snow mix, switch to rain, those in the far northern Lynn Canal area could see all snow, or snow becoming a mix. This gives them the best chance for accumulating snow. And for the highway and higher elevations near Haines, heavy snow up to 6 inches is expected over a 12 to 15 hour time frame. Heaviest snowfall rates will be late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning with rates around .5" to 1" per hour. Haines proper, and areas closer to sea level, is expected to get lighter amounts of snow, at around 3 inches of snow total, with some rain/snow mixing possible.

Land area winds could pick up a little bit, but overall, not a big response - gusts around 30 mph as the front passes are possible before speeds decrease.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Wednesday/...Through the extended range the overall pattern keeps a mid level trough over the region and thus SE AK will remain in a active weather pattern. This active pattern does not mean continuous precipitation but does mean uncertainty on exact position and strength of anything tracking our way. Jet stream stays mainly to the south, thus supporting low pressure activity in the Gulf, before a more amplified wave develops next week. 850 mb temps cool down but snow levels are just high enough to keep the south mostly rain, central areas a mix, and only the far north with precip as mostly snow. Guidance has low probabilities for much accumulation. Wind wise, periods of gales for the gulf, small craft inner channels and then potential storm for next week.

As the Wednesday gale force front moves inland Thursday will have diminishing precip and winds. The next system moves in from the west along the southern AK Gulf with multiple lows centers fujiwharaing in the SE Gulf, which makes tracking them a bit difficult. If the track keeps south may see a break for the northern panhandle Saturday, but kept with ensembles and thus more chance PoP for that time. Sunday back to SE AK fall with more precip and gales.

The next big system potential is for Monday. We're looking at possible heavy rain and near storm force winds for the gulf, if the latest operational GFS is correct. But with the IVT track, heavy rain might keep just south of us. Stay tuned as we get more information and track model consensus.



AVIATION
Quiet day across the area with mainly some low clouds and fog to deal with in some isolated areas this afternoon (Petersburg, and Hyder). That will likely change tonight as fog and low clouds are expected to redevelop in many areas leading to IFR conditions or lower in many central and southern inner channel areas tonight into Wed morning. Things change yet again into Wed afternoon and night as a new front moves in from the gulf. Winds and precip will increase Wed afternoon with conditions likely dropping to MVFR (or lower in some cases). Gusty winds to 30 kt also expected with especially along the southern panhandle and outer coast. Some low level wind shear and maybe some turbulence may show up for the panhandle as well as the front moves through Wed night. Improving conditions into Thu as front moves into Canada and weakens.

MARINE
Marine concerns tonight are the gale force (35+ knots)
front approaching from west that will bring a general E to SE wind at 25 to 40 knots to the eastern gulf. The other concern is the North 15 to 20 knot winds in Lynn Canal tonight before decreasing in speed Wednesday morning.

Elevated winds and waves in the gulf will last into Wednesday night. The inner channels will see winds increase in relation to the frontal passage, which looks to happen Wednesday afternoon into evening with speed reaching 20 to 25 knots.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>035-053-641>644-651.

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Redfield Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM AKST     9.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 AM AKST     3.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:46 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:40 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:29 PM AKST     11.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:26 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:08 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:28 PM AKST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Redfield Cove, Yakutat Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Yakutat
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM AKST     9.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM AKST     3.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:46 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:40 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:28 PM AKST     11.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:27 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:10 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:27 PM AKST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yakutat, Yakutat Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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