Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pedro Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 8:41PM Sunday March 29, 2020 5:29 PM AKDT (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:43AMMoonset 12:16AM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ130 West Of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- 353 Pm Akdt Sun Mar 29 2020
.small craft advisory through Monday...
Tonight..N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedro Bay, AK
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location: 59.62, -153.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 291205 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 405 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A 987mb low was observed over the Gulf of Alaska moving rapidly off to the southeast and away from Southcentral Alaska this morning. Surface high pressure is building in behind this low pressure across Southcentral with a cold air mass moving in. Strong gusty winds are being observed across the Matanuska Valley this morning due to a tight pressure gradient in place due to building surface high pressure inland and the departing low over the Gulf. Winds were also gusting as high as 50-55 mph this morning at Thompson Pass.

Cold northwesterly winds are bringing gusty winds to the normal gaps and passes in the area of the AKPEN this morning as cold air advection continues this morning. Upslope flow against the mountains is also allowing for some snow showers across the higher elevations and peaks.

A front was observed moving across the western Bering and Aleutians bringing rain showers to that part of the Aleutian Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement through Monday night.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds through the TAF period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Strong offshore flow and gap winds will be the main story through Monday. The synoptic setup: an upper ridge building east across the mainland setting up favorable northerly flow aloft, cold advection in the lower elevations, and strengthening thermal and pressure gradients across Southcentral. This will result in generally brisk offshore and gap flows in many areas. The strongest of these flows are expected in the Thompson Pass/Valdez area, Copper River Delta, and the Matanuska Valley where winds are expected to hit warning levels of around 75 mph. These conditions are expected to develop this morning as a fairly strong short wave drops south across the area. This will be followed by increasing northerly jet support as the upper ridge builds east. Warning level winds are expected to continue into Monday afternoon before diminishing.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

A quieter pattern will move into Southwest Alaska as high pressure begins to build across the region today after the snowfall that was seen the past few days. Clear skies in this pattern will help daytime temperatures for most areas reach the mid-20s today and Monday, with cloud-free conditions bringing low temperatures into the single digits for the next two nights.

By Tuesday morning, a weakening front over the eastern Bering will approach the Southwest coast, with the potential for scattered snow shower activity along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Little snow accumulation is expected with this system.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

Heavy freezing spray will persists this morning over the eastern Bering as strong winds continue. Areas south of the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN can expect gusty winds through gap areas to calm down heading into this afternoon as the associated low systems moves out of the forecast area.

A front over the western Bering will strengthen as it moves into the eastern Bering for this afternoon. Gale force winds will persists with this system through Monday morning, when it begins to weaken and lift into the northern Bering. Widespread precipitation is expected with this system with snow eventually transitioning to rain across the Aleutians. The Pribilofs will remain just below freezing, so they should stay all snowfall as the front passes over them on Monday, with the potential for possible blowing snow. However, if their temperature do warm above freezing, they could see a mix of rain or snow, or all rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians . A storm system will track across the western to central Bering on Sunday. There is uncertainty in the exact track of the low center, but high confidence in widespread small craft winds with gales likely near the low center. The eastern Bering will likely see minimal impacts from this, as most model solutions track the low to the northern Bering, or even into Russia. Forecast confidence for Monday/Tuesday drops significantly, although it doesn't look like any major storm systems will affect the region.

Gulf of Alaska . There is a high confidence in gap winds along the Gulf coast on Sunday. These will diminish by Monday and the overall weather pattern looks quiet.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Friday).

Guidance is consistent with the overall synoptic pattern on Sunday with an upper level trough over the Alaska mainland while upper level ridging slowly moves eastward across the central and eastern Bering. This will result in cold temperatures across the mainland. A high confidence exists with a warming trend in temperatures across the Alaska mainland in particular Southwest Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. However, there is low confidence with respect to the magnitude of the expected warm up as there are discrepancies between guidance with how fast this ridge is moving. The GFS appears to have the fastest bias as the GEM and ECMWF show the upper trough extending into the Ahklun Mountains while the GFS has the trough only extending to the eastern AKPEN. More significant differences between guidance arise on Wednesday with respect to the amplitude of the upper ridge over Southcentral Alaska. This means that there is a low confidence in the temperature forecast as the placement of this upper ridge affects the placement of the surface ridging and thus causing major discrepancies in the temperature forecast. One area of confidence for this period is the weather is expected to remain benign across Southcentral during this time as high pressure will be over the area. Significant discrepancies continue on Thursday and Friday and thus the forecast confidence remains very low for this period at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High wind warning 111 and 131. MARINE . Gales 127 130 131 185 411-413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RMC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 21 mi59 min NW 14 G 17 26°F 1011.2 hPa13°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 86 mi59 min NNE 20 G 25 28°F 1008.6 hPa8°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 99 mi59 min NNW 22 G 27 29°F 1007.4 hPa9°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Alsworth, Port Alsworth Airport, AK56 mi2.6 hrsW 740.00 miClear28°F23°F80%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PALJ

Wind History from ALJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------SW6--W8--W7--SW8
1 day ago------------------------------NE8--NE10--NE10--NE8--Calm
2 days ago------------------------------Calm--Calm--W6--Calm--W8

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:01 AM AKDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:00 AM AKDT     14.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:31 PM AKDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:51 PM AKDT     11.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.65.88.711.413.31413.311.28.35.22.61.11.12.657.71011.51211.29.57.35.4

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Alaska
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Oil Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM AKDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:03 AM AKDT     13.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:31 PM AKDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM AKDT     11.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.83.55.68.410.912.813.512.910.98.15.12.61.11.12.54.87.39.51111.510.99.27.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.