Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pedro Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:25AMSunset 11:30PM Thursday June 4, 2020 4:03 AM AKDT (12:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:15PMMoonset 2:58AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ130 West Of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- 333 Am Akdt Thu Jun 4 2020
Today..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri..W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedro Bay, AK
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location: 59.62, -153.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 041150 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 350 AM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The upper level pattern remains amplified with an upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral Alaska while upper ridging continues to build across the Bering/Aleutians and is beginning to extend into the Kuskokwim Delta. An area of low pressure is slowly moving eastward in the southern Gulf of Alaska. This low is veritcally stacked while being significantly displaced from the core of the subtropical-jet and thus is gradually weakening from a lack of synoptic scale forcing. The subtropical- jet currently remains south of 50N across the North Pacific and extends from the subtropical central Pacific to the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, radar imagery shows showers moving southwestward through the Susitna Valley. Radar also shows an area of more stratiform rain moving southwestward across Prince William Sound into the northern Gulf of Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features over the next 3 days. There is also a decent agreement between mesoscale features and stability indices which results in a higher confidence for the convective forecast. Forecast confidence overall remains above average during this time.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The main features of influence over the next couple of days are a series of upper waves propagating north across Southcentral and a strengthening interior thermal trough. Generally mostly cloudy conditions with showers can be expected across the region through Friday. Conditions should be unstable enough this afternoon and evening for thunderstorm development over the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. The 700 mb steering flow this evening could push thunderstorms off the Talkeetna mountains into the Matanuska Valley this evening. Overall conditions will become more unstable across the region Friday as the thermal trough intensifies. Expect the aerial coverage off thunderstorm potential to expand and extend south across the Anchorage Bowl to the Kenai Peninsula. There may even be small hail associated with these storms. Expect fairly stiff seabreezes along the coasts, especially Kachemak Bay and resurrection Bay this afternoon and again Friday. Temperatures will continue to warm over the next couple of days with numerous areas in the 60s. With enough cloud breaks Friday there will be some 70 degree reading across the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The models all ping into onshore flow for the coastal communities of SW AK. With all the stratus in the Eastern Bering expect the cloud coverage to increase and moisture will advect off the Bering Sea. The primary forecast challenge will be whether or not fog will form. At this time it looks patchy. Isolated wet thunderstorms are possible over the Alaska Range this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

The center of circulation for the high is south of Adak. Mild weather will persist across the Bering over the next several days. On satellite imagery there is stratus from Nunivak Island to Atuut Island. There is a large clearing west of St Paul and a smaller break in stratus from False Pass tto the southern portion of Amaknak Island. At this time, most of the small breaks in stratus are on the south side of a few of the Aleutian Islands, expect this stratus to hang out. Models bring and upper level disturbance into the eastern Bering tonight, but at the surface there isn't a closed low but there will be a quick shot of showers which is most likely to impact St. Paul.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). Quiet weather continues through the forecast period for all marine areas with light winds and low waves. Westerly flow expected across much of the Bering. A weak low will drift across the Northern Bering through Monday bringing Northwesterly winds across the Eastern Bering by the end of the forecast period. Low pressure lingers over the Western Gulf through Monday with showers and isolated daytime thunderstorms across the Northern Gulf through Monday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

There is a little better confidence in the long term forecast today as models are coming into somewhat better alignment through the early part of next week. The upper level pattern will bring a low near the Alaska Peninsula this weekend with a trough extending out of it and into the Interior of the state. There are some differences in the expected position of the low and therefore exact orientation of the trough. However, the overall pattern should continue to bring in some upper level waves and corresponding periods of showers with them. This will also keep the potential for diurnal showers and a thunderstorm or two around. As we head into the middle of next week there remains a bit more uncertainty as the GFS models is significantly stronger and farther north with the upper level low position. The ECMWF shows a weaker low southeast of the Alaska Peninsula with weak high pressure over the interior of the state. This second scenario is the more likely pattern for early summer, but the first scenario cannot be ruled out.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ED SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PS MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/EZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 21 mi34 min S 12 G 13 44°F 1017.6 hPa44°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 86 mi34 min NW 1 G 1.9 45°F 1018.1 hPa42°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 99 mi34 min W 5.1 G 6 47°F 1017.9 hPa43°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PALJ

Wind History from ALJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------Calm------------------SW10--SW14
1 day ago----------------------Calm--Calm--NW4--NW7--E14--NE12--NE7
2 days ago----------------------Calm------NE8--E8--NE10--NE10--SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM AKDT     16.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM AKDT     -3.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:47 PM AKDT     14.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM AKDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.115.616.214.911.87.63-0.9-3-2.8-0.53.27.611.51414.613.310.46.73.21.113.16.6

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Alaska
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Oil Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:51 AM AKDT     15.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM AKDT     -3.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM AKDT     14.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:31 PM AKDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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912.514.915.614.411.47.32.8-1-3-2.8-0.62.97.110.913.41412.810.16.63.11.113

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.