Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Homer, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)...

KEY MESSAGE:

Southeasterly flow continues through Thursday across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians with light precipitation likely for higher terrain along the southwest coast into Tuesday. Building high pressure for the eastern Bering and Southwest mainland persists through Thursday, while several lows lift across the western Bering.

Discussion:

Dry conditions are expected across most of the southwestern mainland while a weak disturbance lifts across the Pribilof Islands bringing increased wind and a slight chance for rain this afternoon. The southern AKPEN, such as Chignik and Sand Point will continue to see showery and overcast conditions this afternoon. Moisture will continue to Nunivak Island, Nelson Island, and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through the overnight hours.
Any precipitation that falls will be a very light wintry mix as temperatures aloft are marginally cool and warming with time. The best chance for light freezing rain/snow mix is across Nunivak/Nelson Islands overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.
Upslope flow along the Kilbuck and Ahklun mountains could also help to ring out moisture in the form of a light wintry mix along the eastern facing slopes of the mountains. The population centers such as Dillingham, Togiak, Manokotak, and Aleknagik look to remain just above freezing with mostly rain and a few flurries mixing in at times. Conditions become drier across the Southwest mainland as high pressure builds Wednesday.

Farther out west, a North Pacific low continues to lift northward into the Bering Sea tonight. While the center of rotation passes directly over Adak, the main part of the front will pass east of Adak and Atka, with the highest winds passing just east of Atka.
Gusty southerly winds up to storm-force and rain peak early Tuesday morning before winds shift to southwesterly and decrease as the low passes. Late Tuesday morning the front passes west of the Pribilof Islands, where wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour will be possible.

A brief lull in conditions will be interrupted by another front from a North Pacific low west of Attu with storm-force winds passing between Shemya and Adak Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. This low keeps a northward track before turning west into the Russian mainland Thursday morning. The pattern continues with yet another front, which sets up to pass between Kiska and Atka by Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Confidence remains high for high pressure to persist across the state into the weekend. While much of the mainland will experience dry and quiet weather, there continues to be a strong signal for persistent upper level troughing over Kamchatka and the Western Bering Sea through the period. Several shortwaves and accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and into the western Bering, keeping unsettled and active weather mainly confined to the Western and Central Aleutians. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially storm force winds and precipitation through the weekend into early next week.

The upper level ridge looks to retreat to the northwest towards eastern Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend.
This leads to a shift in the storm track and disturbances lifting out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf, bringing more active weather across the AKPen and coastal Southcentral. Heading into early next week, model spread begins to grow but ensemble means remain consistent in a trough digging south across the interior, bringing increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures across inland Southcentral locations.

JH

AVIATION

PANC...Light, mostly northerly, winds will persist through Tuesday.
Conditions will be favorable for low stratus or fog development tonight as high pressure builds over the region with a strong inversion aloft.