Tuesday, November12, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:55AMSunset 4:32PM Tuesday November 12, 2019 4:47 AM AKST (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 304 Am Akst Tue Nov 12 2019
Today..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu through Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 121302
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
402 am akst Tue nov 12 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A broad 990 mb low continues to lift slowly northward into the
gulf of alaska this morning. The early morning ascat scatterometer
pass indicates a band of easterly gales ahead of the associated
occluded front as it, too, lifts north along the southeast alaska
coast. Inland, a 1023 mb high is anchored over the yukon with an
axis stretching across the copper river basin. The tight pressure
gradient between it and the low in the southern gulf has allowed
gusty northerly, outflow winds to persist along the southcentral
coast, especially out of the copper river delta and the valdez arm
and narrows.

Temperatures across southcentral this morning range from the
single digits below zero to the teens in the copper river basin,
to the 20s across the susitna valley and the lower to upper 30s
for coastal locations. Low stratus continues to linger across the
southern half of the copper river basin as well as along the
southcentral coast where a few scattered showers are showing up on
radar. A weak, lee-side trough extends across the alaska range and
is producing areas of mid-level clouds across the interior this
morning.

Farther west, a vertically stacked low west of saint matthew
island continues to weaken as it tracks to the northwest. An
occluded front associated with this low stretches across the
northern bering to the kuskokwim valley. Scattered cloud cover and
a few isolated showers remain over the y-k delta but are
dissipating quickly as the front shears apart.

The main weather feature, and the focus for the upcoming forecast
across the gulf and southcentral alaska, is a 953 mb storm-force
low currently 400 miles south of dutch harbor. This system
continues to deepen as it sits in the favorable left exit region
of a 130 kt cyclonic jet streak as is accompanied by a
strengthening upper-level shortwave and cold air advection digging
south across the bering. The warm front associated with this
feature is lifting north toward the akpen and eastern aleutians
this morning with widespread rain and gusty east to northeast
winds from cold bay to nikolski.

Model discussion
Models continue to struggle with the interplay between an arctic
trough over western alaska dropping south over the bering and a
low lifting north into the gulf with associated upper-level
shortwaves. Specifically, there are subtle, yet important,
differences regarding the timing of the fronts as they approach
the northern gulf coast, the orientation of winds aloft, and the
development and track of a secondary northern gulf low late
Wednesday into Thursday.

For example, the latest NAM and gem runs are a bit faster with
the progression of the initial front early Wednesday and keeps
the flow aloft oriented in a way to minimize the downslope
potential for the western kenai peninsula and anchorage bowl.

Conversely, the GFS is slower with the initial front and keeps
more of a southeasterly, cross-barrier flow aloft over the coast.

This could help limit precipitation amounts for the
aforementioned areas. Needless to say, all of this will affect the
onset of precipitation across southcentral alaska, as well as the
amount and type. Overall, the biggest challenge in the short term
will be precipitation type as conditions will be right on the
edge between freezing rain and snow. See the southcentral forecast
discussion for more details.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light, northerly winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The main focus for the short term forecast surrounds the next
storm moving up from the gulf on Wednesday, bringing increased
precipitation chances through Thursday. At the onset of this
event, temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s just inland
with much colder temperatures in the 20s further north. Therefore,
precipitation will be a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow.

Another challenge with this system is snow amounts across the
copper river basin as this storm system brings a deep fetch of
southerly moisture Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thompson pass is
expected to remain below freezing for this event and is expected
to have blowing snow as winds remain gusty out of the northeast.

For today, generally dry conditions are expected. The exception
to this will be kodiak island, where enough moisture remains over
the gulf to produce precipitation. Tonight a front will move
north through the gulf, bringing rain to kodiak island beginning
this evening. Rain will then spread north to the eastern kenai
peninsula late tonight. Inland areas will remain dry.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Weak ridging will sit over southwest alaska today keeping
conditions dry through most of the day. Tonight a front will move
over the area from the south, bringing rain back to areas around
bristol bay with snow farther inland. There is also a slight
chance to see periods of light freezing rain into Wednesday
morning. The front will stall and weaken around bristol bay
bringing a mix of rain and snow to the area through Wednesday.

Meanwhile, northeast outflow winds will increase across southwest
alaska through Wednesday dropping temps around the area with lows
in the lower kuskokwim valley dropping to around 0f Wednesday
night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
There are two lows impacting the area with one in the bering and a
stronger one south of the eastern aleutians. The bering low is
weakening and will dissipate tonight. The north pacific low will
slowly track east staying to the south of the eastern aleutians
and alaska peninsula. However, it will bring rain and strong winds
to those areas as it moves through. The strongest winds will be
this morning and they will taper down through Wednesday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
From Wednesday night through Saturday, winds in the western and
central gulf will generally remain 30 knots or less. Localized
gales are possible at time from southern cook inlet, across the
barren islands through shelikof straits as troughs and fronts
rotate through with brief periods of gales also possible along the
barrier jet region of the northern gulf coast. Northeasterly
gales are expected to persist over the northern bering near saint
matthew island Wednesday night through Friday and along portions
of the kuskokwim delta coast through Thursday. Winds across the
remainder of the bering, aleutians and near the alaska peninsula
are expected to generally remain 30 knots or less into Saturday.

A shift to a significantly stormier pattern is likely Sunday
through the middle of next week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
By Thursday afternoon, the upper level pattern will have
progressed to a large double centered upper level low stretched
across much of the area. The colder upper level low center off of
the kuskokwim delta coast will rotate to the south then east and
into bristol bay through Friday, while the warmer upper level low
to the southeast of kodiak island lifts northeast into the
central gulf as it continues to weaken. By Friday afternoon the
gulf low will dissipate into an open trough and frontal system
stretched across the northern gulf coast with the low over
bristol bay becoming the dominant circulation.

The next north pacific frontal system will track into the far
southern gulf Friday afternoon and evening and then continue to
the northeast into the eastern gulf Friday night through Saturday
to be followed by an additional frontal wave following a similar
track Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile, the low over bristol
bay will move slowly to the northeast sliding onshore over the
kuskokwim delta Saturday through Saturday night with several
associated frontal bands and troughs rotating through southwest
alaska late Thursday night through Sunday morning. The upper low
will open to a trough and lift northeast into interior alaska
Sunday and Sunday night swinging a shortwave trough through
southeast alaska.

A strong westerly jet stream will push in south of the aleutians
Sunday and Monday then strengthen through the middle of next week.

This pattern shift will open the door for a series of strong, fast
moving systems tracking in from the west along the aleutian chain
and pushing progressively further east into southern alaska and
the gulf.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 130 131 138 139 155 160 165 170 172 173 174
176 180 181 185.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tm
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
marine long term... Jr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi78 min NE 4.1 41°F 1001 hPa36°F
HMSA2 7 mi26 min E 4.1 G 7 42°F 998.8 hPa36°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 16 mi48 min 47°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi48 min 47°F1001.1 hPa (-1.0)
APXA2 20 mi63 min E 4.1 37°F 1002 hPa28°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi48 min NNE 6 G 7 42°F 1001.2 hPa (-1.0)39°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi48 min NW 12 G 14 45°F 1000.6 hPa (-0.7)42°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi55 minN 310.00 miOvercast38°F36°F93%1001.8 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi55 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F37°F96%1001.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmN3CalmNE4CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NW3N3
1 day agoNE3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE3E5CalmNE4E3E4CalmCalmNE4NE4NE4S3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:00 AM AKST     18.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 AM AKST     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:54 AM AKST     2.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:47 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:54 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:49 PM AKST     20.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:22 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:23 PM AKST     -1.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1417.418.717.614.710.76.53.42.43.97.512.116.419.520.318.715.210.35.20.8-1.5-1.11.86.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Sadie Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:05 AM AKST     18.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 AM AKST     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:51 AM AKST     2.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:46 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM AKST     20.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:22 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:20 PM AKST     -1.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.717.218.617.714.810.76.53.32.447.511.916.119.220.218.815.310.45.20.8-1.5-1.11.86.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.