Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 120100 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper low in the western Bering is becoming vertically stacked with a surface low. Its associated front is currently bringing showers to the western Aleutians. A ridge out ahead of it is leading to more benign conditions over the western/central Bering, however the usual associated low stratus is seen on current satellite imagery and will persist. Farther east, a compact low is tracking south of Prince William Sound. The rising surface pressures are leading to gusty winds channeling through the Valdez Narrows, Passage Canal and will increase across Turnagain Arm and into west Anchorage through this evening. Gusty southerly winds are likewise occurring over the Copper River Basin. Per current radar, precipitation is confined to the coast, however some very light rain/drizzle is possible in the lee of the Chugach Mountains.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Synoptic models remain in good short term agreement. They begin to diverge into Thursday/Friday as a front moves into the Gulf. The Canadian was used as it was a middle ground solution at this time with regards to the frontal timing. A broad low and series of troughs/fronts in the western Bering will maintain a showery pattern towards the end of the week.

AVIATION.

PANC . Southeasterly winds will increase this evening, with gusts likely peaking near 25 kts. These will diminish by Wednesday morning. Ceilings are expected to remain above 5000 feet, however light showers/drizzle may possibly develop this evening, leading to brief MVFR conditions.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A compact low over the northern Kenai Peninsula this evening will move into the Susitna Valley and dissipate by Wednesday morning. This will bring steady rain to the mountains and showers for most of the population centers overnight. By Wednesday morning most of the low elevation rain should be confined to the northern Susitna Valley. Afternoon showers will be confined to the mountains with little steering flow aloft to push systems into the valleys. High cirrus clouds and fair weather cumulus are likely to be abundant throughout the day but the sun may poke out for a few hours here and there. On Thursday the region will warm and dry slightly as the broad trough that has brought unsettled weather early this week moves off to the southeast. Skies should be mostly clear from the Kenai up into the Mat Valley. Kodiak Island will see some rain late Thursday as the next front moves in from the south.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday) .

A few showers will continue through this evening as cold air aloft and an upper level low over the Gulf provide favorable conditions for showers. Tonight and tomorrow high pressure will edge into Southwest Alaska from the interior, this will lead to a decrease in cloud cover and patchy morning fog. As temperatures warm up tomorrow afternoon a few showers will pop up mainly over the higher terrain of the Alaskan Range and Kuskokwim mountains as cold air aloft lingers over the area creating instability. Thursday will remain dry as high pressure holds strong. However by Thursday night and Friday a front will move into the eastern Bering and bring increasing east to southeast winds and rain over most of the area.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday) .

An occluded front will progress across the Bering and Aleutians tonight and Wednesday with an increase in rain and winds to near small crafts. On Thursday an upper level shortwave will interact with the front creating a surface low near the eastern Aleutians this will cause winds to increase to Gales from the eastern Aleutians through the AKPEN and into the eastern Bering including Bristol Bay, this will cause fairly gusty winds for Dutch Harbor and Cold Bay as favorable southeast flow develops. By Friday the front begins to weaken and spread inland and towards the Gulf. The parent low of this front will slowly track into the Bering Wednesday through Friday with Gales developing south of low and south of the Aleutians Thursday and Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Bering: A broad area of low pressure will be centered over the Bering Friday. Gale force winds are expected across waters just south of the central Aleutians Friday through Saturday. While the low center exits the Bering to the south on Saturday, there is potential for a gale force front to arrive over the western Bering Sunday night.

Gulf of Alaska: A weakening front will lift over the northern Gulf Friday. While gale force winds will have subsided, some gusty southeasterly winds are still expected across the usual places including the Barren Islands, Shelikof Strait, and Kamishak Bay through Saturday. There is potential for a compact low to spin up over the northern Gulf late Friday night, which may introduce potential for gales, however confidence remains low at this time.

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday) .

The long term pattern consists of a broad upper level trough over the Bering with several upper level shortwaves lifting inland over Southcentral. As the low exits the Bering and moves southeastward into the Gulf late Sunday, residual energy will push inland over Southcentral, keeping unsettled conditions in place with widespread showers likely through Monday, especially along the northern Gulf coast. Conditions should improve over the mainland Monday into Tuesday as a ridge builds in over the southern half of the state, which should allow for clearing skies overhead. (Shout out to the Anchorage school group who learned all about high and low pressure systems during the virtual cloud in a bottle experiment yesterday!) Farther west, a Kamchatka low spins up and pushes a front across the western Aleutians Monday night. This will bring gusty southerly flow and rain to the Aleutian Chain and Pribilof Islands through Tuesday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALE 170. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CJ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . KO

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	7 mi	62 min	W 7				1016 hPa
HMSA2	7 mi	30 min	WSW 7 G 8.9	42°F				37°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	16 mi	92 min		42°F	42°F	1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	17 mi	44 min			42°F		1017.3 hPa
APXA2	20 mi	107 min	WNW 6	42°F			1017 hPa	38°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	32 mi	32 min	WNW 4.1 G 5.1	42°F			1018.2 hPa (+0.6)	38°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	55 mi	32 min	WSW 6 G 7	43°F			1017 hPa (+0.6)	39°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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N6

NW4

NW2 G5

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N4 G7

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N4 G8

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NE6 G9

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SW1 G4

S2 G5

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NW3 G6

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N5 G8

N8 G11

NE7 G10

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NE6 G9

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N7 G10

NE7 G10

N8 G11

NW3

N5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	2 mi	39 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	43°F	39°F	86%	1017.6 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	16 mi	39 min	NNE 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	44°F	38°F	79%	1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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W6

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NE3

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SW5

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W12 G20

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1 day ago

SW6

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NE4

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SW6

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W6

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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