Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 202329 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 329 pm akdt Tue aug 20 2019 Analysis and upper levels An upper level low over the northern yukon territory has a trough extending along the alcan border and into the northeastern gulf of alaska. With the upper level ridge axis extending from eastern russia and eastward into the interior of the state there is a north-to-northwesterly flow aloft over southcentral and southwest alaska today. An upper level wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft is tracking across bristol bay and into the western gulf of alaska today bringing in some light rainfall to these areas. The vertically stacked low to the south of kiska is the strongest feature over the forecast area this afternoon with the front associated with it extending to the eastern aleutians. Being vertically stacked, this low will be weakening though the jet stream running to the south of it will develop the series of triple point lows that will become more of a factor as the week progresses. Model discussion The model agreement remains very good through the remainder of the week. An uncertainty with the triple-point low development in the gulf on Thursday looks to be mostly resolved. The bigger concern is with the details of the low level winds and the details that will drive the smoke movement especially in the cook inlet and mat-su regions. Aviation Panc... Smoke will remain the big uncertainty for the taf. It does still look like the smoke should diminish some at the airport over the course of the evening due to a shift in the low level winds. However, there is still enough widespread smoke that some will likely remain over the airport though it looks less likely to bring in the lower ceilings or visibilities that it did last night into this morning. Fire weather We are still expecting a slow increase in rh values across southcentral alaska over the course of the week to go along with the more seasonal temperatures. Light winds tonight will allow an inversion to develop over a good part of the kenai peninsula, anchorage bowl and mat-su valleys. This may trap thicker smoke again over the area overnight into Wednesday morning. The item of most interest will be the winds Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon where east-to-southeast winds will develop through channeled terrain such as turnagain arm and kenai lake and cooper landing which could impact fire conditions at that time at the swan lake fire. Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3) Scattered showers will remain over kodiak island through the evening hours as a shortwave continues to dig south toward the western gulf. Across the southcentral mainland, dry conditions with generally light winds will persist through the next 24 hours or so with only scattered clouds and isolated showers over the mountains. Areas of smoke will linger across the kenai peninsula north through the mat-su valleys through at least Thursday due to light and variable surface winds. The worst of the smoke,however, should stay away from the anchorage bowl tonight through early

tomorrow morning as a weak westerly flow aloft splits with more of a southwesterly push up the susitna valley and a northwesterly push across the kenai peninsula. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a broad area of low pressure will move into the gulf. This system will spread some showers along the coast and increase southeasterly winds through favored gap locations, including turnagain arm, portage valley, and portions of the kenai peninsula. Clouds and the chance for showers will then increase Thursday and Thursday night as an upper-level shortwave drops south from the interior. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3) The overall blocking pattern that has been in place over the past few days continues to break down as a low in the western bering pushes its front across the central aleutians and bering. Showers over the bristol bay area will diminish through the evening hours associated with a trough dropping down over mainland alaska. Dry air on the back side of this front will lead to drying conditions through Thursday, with a chance of showers returning on Friday along the alaska range and bristol bay region. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 3) A low south of the western aleutians continues to bring gale force winds to the western bering and aleutians through the evening hours. These winds will then weaken to small craft advisory through Wednesday afternoon while the low begins to dissipate. As the associated front continues to move eastward, a triple point low will develop south of the aleutian chain between dutch harbor and sand point. This low will then become the dominant feature as it continues to push its front into the western gulf by Wednesday night. Though weaker than the original low, small craft advisory winds and rain will be expected with this feature as well. Marine (days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday) A low in the gulf will produce easterly small craft winds and possible low-end gales along the northern gulf coast as it tracks eastward through Friday. Behind the low, westerly winds return to the gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile out west, northerly small craft winds are expected over the eastern bering while a ridge of high pressure persists over the western bering. .Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... there is increasing confidence that the long term forecast includes an active pattern over the southern mainland while more stable conditions will persist over the bering. A longwave trough in place over much of the state will allow several upper level waves to propagate across the southern mainland. Northerly flow is expected along the western coast of the state through the weekend. There is increasing confidence regarding the arrival of a north pacific low entering the western gulf by Monday afternoon, however models solutions continue to disagree on the strength and track of this low. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Gale warning 178. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Ez southcentral alaska... Tm southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah marine long term... Ko

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	7 mi	62 min	NW 9.9	55°F			1007 hPa	46°F
HMSA2	7 mi	30 min	W 12 G 16	55°F			1007.2 hPa	44°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	16 mi	32 min			53°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	17 mi	44 min			51°F		1007.7 hPa
APXA2	20 mi	107 min	W 4.1	56°F			1009 hPa	49°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	32 mi	32 min	SSW 7 G 9.9	54°F			1008.3 hPa (-0.8)	46°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	55 mi	32 min	SW 5.1 G 6	52°F			1009 hPa (-0.8)	49°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	2 mi	39 min	W 8	10.00 mi	Fair	58°F	44°F	60%	1008.1 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	16 mi	39 min	NNE 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	56°F	50°F	81%	1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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