Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 8:00PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 1:50 AM AKDT (09:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 8:09PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 343 Pm Akdt Mon Sep 21 2020
.small craft advisory Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 220035 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 402 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

This afternoon, a near full latitude trough extended in a negative tilt from eastern Siberia, through the Alaska Peninsula, into the North Pacific. Several pieces of energy are seen in the satellite data diving into this trough from the north and then rotating around the low. This is helping foster scattered shower development across the Alaska Peninsula, Southwest Alaska, and into the Gulf and Southcentral.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Today's numerical runs show good agreement at the surface and aloft with the low transitioning from the Southern Bering into the Gulf, but then differences arise in the 60-84 hour period as additional shortwave energy aloft dives into the backside of the trough the parent low is currently in. As this additional energy arrives, new surface cyclogenesis commences and pivot in a counter clockwise fashion, as the two lows rotate around one another (Fujiwhara effect).

At what strength and what location remains the question, as the Canadian is deepest at 977 mb by day 3 (Thursday) just outside of Price William Sound, and the GFS weakest/furthest south across the Southern Gulf. The NAM and ECMWF are in between these models in position and strength. This adds some uncertainty to wind field orientation, strength, and precipitation amounts.

AVIATION.

PANC . Light and variable winds will prevail at the terminal through the forecast period. The main challenge through, as low stratus from the Cook Inlet moved overhead earlier, and it's still lurking around with it being reported at 500 feet in a scattered variety. How long this will continue is the main question at this time.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday night through Thursday) .

A frontal system will continue to move north from Kodiak Island and across the Northern Gulf, bringing Gale to Storm force winds through Wednesday. Otherwise, a series of lows will rotate across the Gulf and past Kodiak Island, keeping coastal areas quite wet through the period. Expect as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain from western Prince William Sound to Kodiak Island. Some rain will spill over the Chugach Mtns into parts of the southern Copper River Basin, but most inland areas of Southcentral will generally be dry with a few showers possible this evening.

The main upper trough and low will begin to exit eastward on Wednesday, which will allow winds to diminish across the Gulf. However, it does look like one more surface low will develop and track westward across the central Gulf. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the track and strength of this low, but it does look like it will stay out over the Gulf. Some of the moisture with this low will advect toward Southcentral, so expect increasing chances of rain for inland areas Wednesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Gusty northeasterly winds will gradually turn more northerly through mid-week with both high and low temperatures trending downward to the mid 40s and mid 30s, respectively. While a few showers are possible along the immediate Kuskokwim Delta coast and near the Alaska Range, much of the area should remain dry through Thursday in the cool, dry northerly flow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A cool, northwesterly flow will persist through Wednesday, generally east of Unalaska between a low in the Gulf and a ridge over the western Bering. Gusty winds are expected through this evening, particularity out of gaps on the Pacific side of the central/eastern Aleutians. Scattered showers will persist through Tuesday and will gradually become more isolated thereafter as the air mass becomes drier. Winds will likewise diminish as the aforementioned low weakens and moves farther east into the Gulf.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday).

Gulf of Alaska: There is moderate confidence that the broad low pressure system in the western Gulf will break down through Friday afternoon. The GFS deterministic model has the low remaining in the Gulf longer than other models but winds and waves should remain at or below small craft criteria through Friday. On Saturday there is moderate to high confidence that a Gale force low will move into the Gulf from the North Pacific. Model spread of the low center pressure ranges from 975 mb to 986 mb. There is low confidence in the location of maximum winds at this time due to high model spread on the east/west location of the low center.

Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain: There is high confidence that winds and waves will be mostly calm through the region on Thursday. On Friday morning a Polar trough will bring moderate (<34 kts) northerly winds through the Bering Strait and into the Bering Sea by Friday evening. On Saturday a weak northerly shortwave and surface low may create winds up to gale force over the western Bering. Confidence in winds reaching gale force on Saturday is moderate.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday).

Synoptically, a broad longwave trough is expected to persist over the region with the jet centered between the 40th and 50th parallel. This should continue the fall pattern of rainy weather for most of the region, but primarily the Bering Sea, AKPEN and Gulf coast. Late Friday and Saturday will likely be the wettest for the Alaska Mainland as a moderately strong storm moves into the Gulf. The broad nature of this system, extending from Bristol Bay to Southeast Alaska will allow for upper level shortwaves to bring moisture and rain into the Alaska interior. Model guidance has come to better agreement in regards to this low, with the low center moving into the Prince William Sound Sunday morning. By Monday, model guidance begins to considerably differ once again, with the GFS bringing the storm back into the Gulf and the EC pushing it into Bristol Bay.

Northerly flow on the backside of the aforementioned low is expected to bring a polar airmass over the Bering on Friday. A series of shortwaves may help provide lift needed for showers over the western Bering and Aleutian Chain through the forecast period. Simultaneous ridging over the Kamchatka Peninsula will help to bring warmer air in from the Western Pacific, thus setting the stage for the next baroclinic storm in the Western Bering. Models are in excellent agreement that a Kamchatka low will form Monday morning with the front reaching the Western Aleutians on Monday afternoon.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 131. Gale Warning 130 138 139 150 155 170 171 172 174 351. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi80 min NE 13 52°F 993 hPa44°F
HMSA2 7 mi28 min NE 8.9 G 14 53°F 991.9 hPa43°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi56 min 52°F994.2 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi50 min NNE 16 G 18 51°F 994.1 hPa (-0.7)45°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi50 min NNE 28 G 32 53°F 991.9 hPa (-0.5)47°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast48°F46°F96%994.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------NE5E7E5CalmE5E8--NE8NE10NE10NE8NE8NE9NE7N8NE7
1 day ago----------------CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE5E43CalmS4S7SW7SW6W4CalmCalm
2 days ago----------------N3N3NE3CalmCalmE4CalmCalmS6W9SW8SW7SW4SW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM AKDT     -1.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM AKDT     18.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:35 PM AKDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:56 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 PM AKDT     19.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.11.86.110.814.917.517.916.313.19.25.53.235.2913.216.919.119.317.413.99.55.2

Tide / Current Tables for Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Sadie Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM AKDT     -1.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM AKDT     17.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:32 PM AKDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:39 PM AKDT     19.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-11.8610.614.617.317.916.413.29.25.53.23.15.28.91316.618.919.317.5149.65.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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