Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 121302 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 402 am akst Tue nov 12 2019 Analysis and upper levels A broad 990 mb low continues to lift slowly northward into the gulf of alaska this morning. The early morning ascat scatterometer pass indicates a band of easterly gales ahead of the associated occluded front as it, too, lifts north along the southeast alaska coast. Inland, a 1023 mb high is anchored over the yukon with an axis stretching across the copper river basin. The tight pressure gradient between it and the low in the southern gulf has allowed gusty northerly, outflow winds to persist along the southcentral coast, especially out of the copper river delta and the valdez arm and narrows. Temperatures across southcentral this morning range from the single digits below zero to the teens in the copper river basin, to the 20s across the susitna valley and the lower to upper 30s for coastal locations. Low stratus continues to linger across the southern half of the copper river basin as well as along the southcentral coast where a few scattered showers are showing up on radar. A weak, lee-side trough extends across the alaska range and is producing areas of mid-level clouds across the interior this morning. Farther west, a vertically stacked low west of saint matthew island continues to weaken as it tracks to the northwest. An occluded front associated with this low stretches across the northern bering to the kuskokwim valley. Scattered cloud cover and a few isolated showers remain over the y-k delta but are dissipating quickly as the front shears apart. The main weather feature, and the focus for the upcoming forecast across the gulf and southcentral alaska, is a 953 mb storm-force low currently 400 miles south of dutch harbor. This system continues to deepen as it sits in the favorable left exit region of a 130 kt cyclonic jet streak as is accompanied by a strengthening upper-level shortwave and cold air advection digging south across the bering. The warm front associated with this feature is lifting north toward the akpen and eastern aleutians this morning with widespread rain and gusty east to northeast winds from cold bay to nikolski. Model discussion Models continue to struggle with the interplay between an arctic trough over western alaska dropping south over the bering and a low lifting north into the gulf with associated upper-level shortwaves. Specifically, there are subtle, yet important, differences regarding the timing of the fronts as they approach the northern gulf coast, the orientation of winds aloft, and the development and track of a secondary northern gulf low late Wednesday into Thursday. For example, the latest NAM and gem runs are a bit faster with the progression of the initial front early Wednesday and keeps the flow aloft oriented in a way to minimize the downslope potential for the western kenai peninsula and anchorage bowl. Conversely, the GFS is slower with the initial front and keeps more of a southeasterly, cross-barrier flow aloft over the coast. This could help limit precipitation amounts for the aforementioned areas. Needless to say, all of this will affect the onset of precipitation across southcentral alaska, as well as the amount and type. Overall, the biggest challenge in the short term will be precipitation type as conditions will be right on the edge between freezing rain and snow. See the southcentral forecast discussion for more details. Aviation Panc...VFR conditions and light, northerly winds will persist. Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2) The main focus for the short term forecast surrounds the next storm moving up from the gulf on Wednesday, bringing increased precipitation chances through Thursday. At the onset of this event, temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s just inland with much colder temperatures in the 20s further north. Therefore, precipitation will be a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow. Another challenge with this system is snow amounts across the copper river basin as this storm system brings a deep fetch of southerly moisture Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thompson pass is expected to remain below freezing for this event and is expected to have blowing snow as winds remain gusty out of the northeast. For today, generally dry conditions are expected. The exception

to this will be kodiak island, where enough moisture remains over the gulf to produce precipitation. Tonight a front will move north through the gulf, bringing rain to kodiak island beginning this evening. Rain will then spread north to the eastern kenai peninsula late tonight. Inland areas will remain dry. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) Weak ridging will sit over southwest alaska today keeping conditions dry through most of the day. Tonight a front will move over the area from the south, bringing rain back to areas around bristol bay with snow farther inland. There is also a slight chance to see periods of light freezing rain into Wednesday morning. The front will stall and weaken around bristol bay bringing a mix of rain and snow to the area through Wednesday. Meanwhile, northeast outflow winds will increase across southwest alaska through Wednesday dropping temps around the area with lows in the lower kuskokwim valley dropping to around 0f Wednesday night. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2) There are two lows impacting the area with one in the bering and a stronger one south of the eastern aleutians. The bering low is weakening and will dissipate tonight. The north pacific low will slowly track east staying to the south of the eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula. However, it will bring rain and strong winds to those areas as it moves through. The strongest winds will be this morning and they will taper down through Wednesday. Marine (days 3 through 5) From Wednesday night through Saturday, winds in the western and central gulf will generally remain 30 knots or less. Localized gales are possible at time from southern cook inlet, across the barren islands through shelikof straits as troughs and fronts rotate through with brief periods of gales also possible along the barrier jet region of the northern gulf coast. Northeasterly gales are expected to persist over the northern bering near saint matthew island Wednesday night through Friday and along portions of the kuskokwim delta coast through Thursday. Winds across the remainder of the bering, aleutians and near the alaska peninsula are expected to generally remain 30 knots or less into Saturday. A shift to a significantly stormier pattern is likely Sunday through the middle of next week. Long term forecast (days 3 through 7) By Thursday afternoon, the upper level pattern will have progressed to a large double centered upper level low stretched across much of the area. The colder upper level low center off of the kuskokwim delta coast will rotate to the south then east and into bristol bay through Friday, while the warmer upper level low to the southeast of kodiak island lifts northeast into the central gulf as it continues to weaken. By Friday afternoon the gulf low will dissipate into an open trough and frontal system stretched across the northern gulf coast with the low over bristol bay becoming the dominant circulation. The next north pacific frontal system will track into the far southern gulf Friday afternoon and evening and then continue to the northeast into the eastern gulf Friday night through Saturday to be followed by an additional frontal wave following a similar track Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile, the low over bristol bay will move slowly to the northeast sliding onshore over the kuskokwim delta Saturday through Saturday night with several associated frontal bands and troughs rotating through southwest alaska late Thursday night through Sunday morning. The upper low will open to a trough and lift northeast into interior alaska Sunday and Sunday night swinging a shortwave trough through southeast alaska. A strong westerly jet stream will push in south of the aleutians Sunday and Monday then strengthen through the middle of next week. This pattern shift will open the door for a series of strong, fast moving systems tracking in from the west along the aleutian chain and pushing progressively further east into southern alaska and the gulf. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Gale warning 130 131 138 139 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 176 180 181 185. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Tm southcentral alaska... Bl southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk marine long term... Jr

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	7 mi	78 min	NE 4.1	41°F			1001 hPa	36°F
HMSA2	7 mi	26 min	E 4.1 G 7	42°F			998.8 hPa	36°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	16 mi	48 min			47°F	2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	17 mi	48 min			47°F		1001.1 hPa (-1.0)
APXA2	20 mi	63 min	E 4.1	37°F			1002 hPa	28°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	32 mi	48 min	NNE 6 G 7	42°F			1001.2 hPa (-1.0)	39°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	55 mi	48 min	NW 12 G 14	45°F			1000.6 hPa (-0.7)	42°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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NE9 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	2 mi	55 min	N 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	38°F	36°F	93%	1001.8 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	16 mi	55 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	37°F	96%	1001.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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NE4

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.