Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kachemak, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Three storms impact the region through Friday, with the strongest storm moving over Southwest Alaska from Wednesday through Thursday.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high, and no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect.

Diving into the details... the low responsible for the past few days of busy weather continues to weaken over the Central Bering Sea. Through today, it will phase with and absorb a second low entering the Bering Sea near the Central Aleutians, then slide westward across the Bering Sea through Thursday. Winds of 25-30 kt are expected around the two lows, with gusty winds for the Alaska Peninsula later this afternoon. Though the second low will bring moisture advection of about 1 inch of precipitable water, the positioning of the front means that the heaviest and longest duration rain will remain mostly over water and avoid the biggest population centers along the Aleutian Islands. Overall, the main impact will be an uptick in southerly gap winds for the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula, along with another round of rain.

The bigger story will be a North Pacific low that strengthens to about 982 mb as it approaches Southwest Alaska late tonight through Wednesday morning. A leading gale force front will lift northward across the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will bring strong and gusty easterly winds on the order of 40 to 55 mph to much of the Bristol Bay region on Wednesday, with winds diminishing through Thursday.
The bulk of rain with this system will be confined to upslope areas, including the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and areas north and west of Dillingham.

-SEB/KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

There is loose agreement with ensemble guidance that an upper level trough will move from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska Friday through Monday. Operational guidance shows variations of this setup but has poor agreement with regards to timing of surface features.

Ridging looks to develop behind the Bering trough Friday and move eastward from the Western Aleutians to the Central Aleutians as it weakens. Expect quieter weather across these areas while underneath the ridge. Meanwhile, troughing will linger across the north Gulf Coast through Sunday with rain continuing along the coast of Southcentral with diurnal showers developing across portions of Southwest through Monday. A North Pacific front looks to lift northward through the Gulf Sunday and Monday with spread on the track of the low center itself ranging from remaining south in the North Pacific to a more northerly track into the central Gulf to near Kodiak Island. Regardless of the low track, the Alaska Peninsula to Kodiak Island look to be the wettest with more uncertainty in the precipitation forecast for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf Coast due to just how far north the front will end up lifting.

AVIATION

PANC...Showers will dissipate and ceilings will continue to lift early this morning. Light winds and VFR conditions will persist for the remainder of the day as high pressure nudges in across Southcentral. Southeasterly winds will increase Wednesday morning as a strong front pushes north from the Gulf of Alaska.