Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kachemak, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The Bering low that brought strong winds and precipitation to the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and areas of Southwest Alaska the past few days will continue to move northward today. As it does, the current coastal rain showers and southerly winds into the Kuskokwim Delta will diminish and then end this evening. Dry conditions are expected for the Mainland today.

A weak and fast-moving low tracks parallel to the Central Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula, but remains south of there, Sunday. Across this area, periods of rain showers and increased southerly to southeasterly winds will accompany this storm Sunday morning through the late afternoon hours.

A ridge of high pressure builds in the Interior Sunday and Monday.
This brings easterly winds across the SW Mainland the latter part of this weekend into early next week. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening from Aniak to Lime Village. Isolated thunderstorms in the same area are possible Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup through midweek next week with the lowest confidence being toward the low center over the Bering Sea. High pressure will generally remain across the mainland of the state. Meanwhile, a closed low will linger over the Bering Sea and another in the Gulf of Alaska.
Active weather will be mostly confined over the West with a strong North Pacific low and front moving over the Central Aleutians Thursday into Friday. A North Pacific low drifting east along the Aleutians towards the Gulf will merge with the main Gulf low by late Monday. The two main upper lows over the Alaska waters may phase, keeping unsettled weather across much of the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula.
Strong high pressure will block any significant movement in the weather pattern for most of the next week, but embedded shortwave troughs may allow for smaller, meandering features to resolve with rainfall and breeziness. Over the mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or thunderstorm development. Toward midweek, the ridge appears to build further, suppressing both lows, and leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely for most of Alaska. While confidence is high with the overall pattern, confidence is low for the weather associated with finer features near coastal communities due to slight variations in low centers.

-VR/AM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Southeast winds early this morning turn southwesterly late this morning.
Winds turn back to the southeast late this afternoon into the evening as Turnagain Arm winds bend into the terminal once again.
The highest gusts and core of winds should remain over the Arm with lighter gusts, less than 25 mph, clipping the terminal. Winds return to southerly overnight and eventually turn to the southwest by Sunday morning.