Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kachemak, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska remains beneath high pressure this afternoon, downstream of an approaching upper low and front currently pushing through the southern Bering and Aleutian Chain. Some lingering fog and low stratus from the morning hours has eroded with temperatures rebounding into the 70s. The morning forecast sounding for Bethel showed a convective temperature of 72 degrees, which would support a threat of an isolated wet thunderstorm or two through the evening hours over the Kuskokwim Delta. Afternoon satellite imagery, however, is giving very few cues to where storms may develop, with little in the way of an cumulus cloud fields. The most likely area for any potential storm initiation for the rest of the day remains along the Western Alaska Range to the east and northeast of Lime Village.

The more notable weather feature for the west domain is the front pushing through the Eastern Aleutians. This front will progress eastward tonight and push into the west coast as a dissipating front by tomorrow morning. A swath of gales along the front has pushed across Dutch Harbor and is now moving into the southern Alaska Peninsula. Both Unalaska and Cold Bay have both already experienced wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. Winds should taper off for Unalaska through the rest of the evening hours while Cold Bay will likely see gusts increase to 50 mph before midnight.

Friday into the start of the weekend low pressure weakens and becomes stationary over the Bering. Southerly flow will continue through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, though with reduced gusts to 20 to 25 knots. Inland of the Southwest Coast conditions should be much more mild with light winds and generally clear and warm conditions, as high pressure resumes in the wake of the dissipating front.

BL



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

An elongated upper level trough stretches from Siberia across the Bering into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. An upper level ridge extends from Western Canada across the Northern two-thirds of Mainland Alaska. A number of shortwaves slip through the pattern through Thursday. A multi-deterministic model blend covers the synoptic scale features, with the GFS showing its muscles with the development of a low just South of the Aleutians on Tuesday, and lasting through the week. Greatest uncertainty continues with the smaller details.

Warmer temperatures over Interior Alaska continue through Thursday, with warmest temperatures in the Eastern portions. This spurs scattered areas of convection across the state. The highest possibilities for thunderstorms are are expected in the Eastern Interior. A weakening front over the Central Aleutians Monday brings rain and breezy conditions into the Southern Alaska Peninsula before moving into the North Pacific for Tuesday. A second low and front spreads locally moderate rain in the Western Aleutians and Bering Monday, pushing across to Southwest Alaska, AKPEN and Kodiak Island by late Wednesday into Thursday. A weak wave causes another round of rain to move over the Western and Central Aleutians late Tuesday through Thursday.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The sea breeze will likely be a little stronger this afternoon compared to yesterday given clear skies and warmer temperatures today, perhaps gusting to around 10 to 15 kts out of the west to southwest at times through this evening. Otherwise, expect light winds through the remainder of the TAF period.