Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lowell Point, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty northwesterly winds and persistent showers for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through early this week.

- Slight (10-20%) chance of thunderstorms for Southern Alaska Peninsula and surrounding waters from late morning into this evening.

- Trending colder for Southwest Alaska, though overnight lows will ultimately depend on cloud cover. Still, many locations could see overnight and morning temperatures near or below freezing tonight through midweek, with greatest chances (60% or greater)
for interior Southwest.

- Looking ahead: Winds to gale force and light to moderate rain for the Aleutians from late Monday into Tuesday as a strengthening low pressure system enters from the west.

Discussion:

The upper level pattern remains steady over the next couple of days as the broad longwave troughing extending from the Bering, across much of Mainland Alaska, and into the Gulf remains in place. The weaker of two upper shortwaves rounding the base of the trough progresses southwards across the southeastern Bering throughout the day today, while the stronger of the two and its associated surface low lifts north across the Gulf. This pattern remains favorable for the gusty northwesterly winds and showery conditions across the eastern Bering, Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula to continue through early this week. Wind speeds similar to what have been observed overnight and early this morning are likely to continue into early this afternoon, thanks to the tight surface pressure gradient in combination with positive vorticity and cold air advection associated with the passing upper level shortwave. By late this afternoon into this evening, winds begin to slowly trend weaker as the shortwave continues into the Gulf, though gusty small-craft winds and gale- force gusts along the AKPen persist through Monday.

For Southwest Alaska, the biggest story will likely be temperatures trending colder. As the airmass that will bring this colder air will also be quite dry, any snow will almost certainly be limited to higher elevation mountains, where orographic lift will have a better chance of squeezing out some precipitation.
Still, with overnight lows forecast to dip close to or even below freezing at lower elevations tonight through midweek, now is a good time to start bringing things indoors in preparation for winter.

Finally, from late Monday into Tuesday, what could be the first of two storms will move into the Western Bering Sea, bringing stronger winds and greater rain chances to areas west of Nikolski.
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with how this storm will interact with the second storm, but what is NOT in question is that this storm will almost certainly be weaker than the succeeding storm. Still, this Monday/Tuesday storm could pack a bit of a punch, with winds to gale force and light to moderate rain. While the details will continue to be ironed out over the coming days, the current expectation is for the interaction of the two storms to result in a potentially much stronger storm developing in the Bering for Wednesday into Thursday. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates.

-KC/JH

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Key messages:

- A very strong low pressure system is likely to develop over the Bering Sea between Wednesday and Friday.

- The post-tropical remnants of Typhoon Dujuan will likely be absorbed into an initial weaker system moving into the western Bering Sea, causing the low to rapidly intensify from Wednesday to Thursday.

- Very strong winds, large waves and heavy rainfall are likely near this storm system across much of the Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands, and portions of Southwest towards the latter half of the week ahead.

- A threat for coastal flooding will exist along the Southwest coast sometime between Wednesday evening and Saturday, but this potential is highly dependent on the still uncertain track of the low as it heads across the Bering Sea.

Discussion:

Much activity will be brewing at the start of the long term period on Wednesday morning, mainly across parts of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain. A complex trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will be shifting away from Kamchatka and into the western Bering Sea, sending an initially weak attendant surface low into the western/central Bering. Meanwhile, the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan are anticipated to be curving northeast away from Japan by this point and drifting south of the western parts of the Aleutian Chain. Much calmer conditions should be ongoing across most of the southern Mainland by the middle of next week as a longwave ridge over the eastern Bering begins to shift east into Southwest and Southcentral.

A complex interaction between the incoming trough/low heading into the western Bering and the remnants of Dujuan moving over the North Pacific is projected to unfold starting around the middle of next week. The consensus from deterministic and ensemble model solutions in terms of how this plays out has shifted quite a bit compared to indications from yesterday. It now looks likely (about a 60-70% chance) that Dujuan's remnant center will curve north across the Aleutians and phase with one or more shortwaves drifting across the western Bering. As these features merge, this will result in a period of rapid deepening of the resulting single surface low, perhaps bottoming out in the 940-960 mb range or lower as it reaches maximum intensity somewhere over the central to western Bering Sea on Thursday.

A large field of Gale to Storm Force winds is anticipated to develop around the low as it deepens, with a swath of Hurricane Force gusts possible on the south side of the low. Much of the Aleutian Chain, including Adak, Atka and Unalaska, will have the potential to see strong to damaging wind gusts south of the low center as early as Wednesday evening. Large waves of up to 20 to 30 ft or more are possible as well, particularly across the southern Bering Sea between Thursday and Friday. Strong winds will also affect the Pribilofs from late Wednesday through at least Friday, where large breaking waves reaching the shoreline will also be a possible hazard. Heavy rainfall rates will also be a concern across much of the Aleutians as a deep band of tropical moisture surges north into the low, especially between Wednesday and Thursday.

Turning attention to Southwest, the first impacts from this system will arrive along the low's occluding frontal boundary as it moves up the AKPen and reaches the Southwest coast from Wednesday night into Thursday. Intense southerly gap winds will ramp up ahead of the frontal passage along the AKPen, including spots like Cold Bay, Port Heiden, and Pilot Point. Strong southeast winds will shift up to the coast of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta later on Thursday, with early indications suggesting the front will weaken as it heads inland, limiting impacts from strong winds to along/near the coastline. Some sections of coastline that face southeast, namely in and around Kwigillingok, could see minor coastal flooding with this first round of strong southeast winds on Thursday.

Potential for more widespread coastal impacts in terms of erosion and coastal flooding beyond Thursday is more uncertain. Models are in relatively good agreement that the low will nearly stall as it reaches maximum intensity over the western Bering as it detaches from stronger steering flow along the Pacific jet.
However, the weaker steering for the low thereafter is contributing to much lower confidence for the track of the low as it drifts east and closer to Southwest through Saturday. Another period of strong onshore winds will be possible if the low moves in a more northeast direction towards the Y-K Delta after it begins to weaken, but this highly unclear at this time. Land and marine interested alike are advised to closely monitor the forecast for updates as we follow this strong Bering storm system over the next several days.

Looking briefly to Southcentral, much calmer conditions are expected up until Friday morning as the upper ridge moves directly overhead. The front associated with the massive Bering low will arrive from the west on Friday, sending gusty southerly gap winds into parts of the region. Rain moving in with the moisture tap along the front will be mostly concentrated on the southern faces of the mountains as strong southerly flop upslopes into parts of the Chugach Range, Kenai Mountains and Alaska Range. Drier conditions will mostly persist in the lee of the mountains over much of the interior valleys through Saturday, while the heavy rainfall potential will remain confined mainly to the coastal mountains across the western Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula.

-AS

AVIATION

PANC...VFR ceilings with occasional MVFR ceilings are likely throughout the TAF period. The most likely period for MVFR ceilings will be this morning and this evening as multiple rounds of rain move over the area. Rain tapers off by late this morning into the early afternoon. The next round of rain and potential MVFR ceilings arrives this evening and overnight as a low in the Gulf moves into Prince William Sound. Showers with this round will persist through the rest of the TAF period into Monday morning.
Expect light and variable winds with majority of wind being out of the north and at or less than 10 kts.