Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:57AMSunset 3:46PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:41 AM AKST (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 320 Am Akst Mon Dec 9 2019
.gale warning today...
Today..E wind 40 kt becoming se 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Wed..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Thu..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 091307 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 407 AM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A strong area of low pressure centered south of the Alaska Peninsula is slowly drifting northward into the eastern Bering. The associated storm force front is lifting northward over the southern Mainland, bringing heavy rain and gusty southeasterly winds to the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile over Southwest, this same low is producing gusty northeasterly winds and rain across the Alaska Peninsula while farther north along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, temperatures are cold enough for snow. Snowfall combined with gusty winds has significantly reduced visibility across that area this morning.

Farther west, weak cyclonic circulation is in place over the central Bering while another low centered south of Shemya with a central pressure near 980 mb continues to move eastward, tracking along the south side of the Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Overall model solutions are in great agreement for the short-term and the track of the low center as it lifts northward along the southwest coast of Alaska through Tuesday. Differences arise by Tuesday night as another North Pacific low tracks northward toward the southern Mainland. Model solutions continue to differ on the exact track and location of this low center by midweek. Overall, forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION. PANC . Wind shear will continue to be the main threat as another front lifts inland this morning. Winds will be out of the north at the terminal while strong southeasterly flow will persist aloft through the morning. Expect gusty southeasterly flow to arrive at the terminal by Monday evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A strong weather front will move through the area today. This will bring very strong winds to Turnagain Arm and the higher elevations around Anchorage. This system is also loaded with moisture and is quite warm. Heavy precipitation is expected along and near the Gulf coast. Very little precipitation is expected for inland areas due to strong downsloping easterly winds aloft. The front will move inland late this afternoon into the evening. The winds along Turnagain arm will then diminish. The downsloping component will also weaken, and some precipitation should work its way inland. The winds over the Anchorage area will then become southerly and increase. This will push temperatures into the 40s. The front will dissipate on Tuesday and precipitation and winds will diminish considerably. Another front will move into the Gulf late Tuesday, then move north to near the Gulf coast late Tuesday night. This next system will not be as strong as today's (Monday) storm, with winds and precipitation generally staying over the Gulf to just along the Gulf coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Temperatures will continue to rise above freezing this morning as a North Pacific low keeps on its path northward through the afternoon. Many areas in Bristol Bay have already warmed up with this warm front, causing snow to transition to rain. Areas along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast will continue to see potential blowing snow out ahead of the front this morning, with gusty conditions up to 45 mph. However, conditions will improve late this morning into the afternoon as temperatures continue to rise. Strong winds will continue across Southwest Alaska through Tuesday morning when the low center moves into the northern Bering. By Tuesday afternoon, showers begin to taper off across the region before the next possible system brings precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay for Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A powerful 950 mb low centered near Port Heiden this morning will move northward between the Pribilofs and Southwest Alaska by this afternoon. Strong winds will persist over the eastern Bering and in Bristol Bay through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, northerly gales this afternoon will continue across the Pribilofs and central Bering. The winds quickly switch over to westerly flow overnight for the central and western Bering and Aleutians as the low center tracks into the northern Bering for Tuesday morning. Rain and snow showers are likely to continue through Tuesday for much of the Bering and Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

A pair of low pressure systems will affect the region. The first low moves from the northern Bering toward the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday as it retrogrades (moves west), with sustained gales likely north of 60N and west of 175W. Farther east, a north Pacific low moving toward the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will also bring sustained gales to Bristol Bay and coastal waters of the AKPEN. The winds will then subside for both locations on Thursday and Friday. Seas look to generally remain at or below 15 feet through the period.

. Gulf of Alaska .

A front will move from south to north across the region on Wednesday, with sustained gales preceding it. Given a long fetch length, seas are expected to build into the 20 to 25 feet range ahead of this feature. The winds will subside for Thursday and Friday, but the waves will take more time. We expect seas to remain near 20 feet for the southern and eastern Gulf on Thursday before decreasing on Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models continue to struggle with the specifics of the long term forecast, but some general signals can still be gleaned in the noise. Synoptically, a progressive pattern will persist over the Bering and Alaska. A vertically stacked low in the northern Bering Sea Wednesday will continue steering modified Arctic air over the Aleutians and Bering. The low will continue to gradually weaken and shift toward Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered showers over much of the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday. Meanwhile, a low that is currently roughly 400 miles southwest of Shemya will quickly traverse the North Pacific over the next few days. As this low tracks northeast of 50N 150W it will push a warm occluded front towards the North Gulf Coast, likely in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. This should trigger a healthy round of precipitation along the North Gulf Coast and Alaska/Aleutian Range. South/southeast facing slopes should get the heaviest precipitation, while areas in the lee (e.g., Anchorage Bowl, western Kenai Peninsula, Bristol Bay) will be more of a challenge with shadowing. While it's early to get into specifics with respect to precipitation type, this looks like a fairly warm system . the mountains should get snow but in lower lying areas precipitation type will be a challenge. Friday into the weekend, models indicate a strong low or series of lows traversing the Aleutians, bringing a round of strong southerly winds and precipitation.

In short, temperatures will largely be near or above average with a southerly component to the flow over southern Alaska for much of the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe. In addition, precipitation will mostly be focused along the North Gulf Coast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NPW 101, 125. WSW 155. MARINE . Storms 119, 120, 130-132, 136-141, 351, 352. Gales 125, 128, 129, 150, 160, 165, 177, 178-181, 185, 411, 412, 414.

FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 30 mi72 min 45°F5 ft
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 33 mi72 min ESE 34 44°F 984 hPa42°F
HMSA2 33 mi30 min E 19 G 37 45°F 982.4 hPa38°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi60 min 45°F983.1 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi60 min ENE 17 G 23 44°F 38°F992.5 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi49 minE 27 G 414.00 miRain and Windy45°F39°F83%985.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmNE3N3NE3CalmCalmNE3N3NE3E3E7NE4N4CalmN33CalmCalmCalmE7E8E6E7NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM AKST     16.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:05 AM AKST     4.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:56 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:00 PM AKST     19.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:01 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM AKST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.216.616.214.411.58.35.74.75.5811.615.318.219.318.415.912.17.83.71.10.52.15.59.8

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM AKST     15.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM AKST     4.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:09 PM AKST     18.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:04 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:52 PM AKST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.515.313.811.28.15.64.457.210.514.11718.217.615.411.97.73.70.90.21.54.68.612.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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