Tuesday, October27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:13AMSunset 6:12PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 5:56 PM AKDT (01:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 2:08AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 350 Pm Akdt Tue Oct 27 2020
Tonight..N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sat through Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 280106 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 PM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A positively tilted upper-level trough stretching from the Yukon to the AKPEN continues to slide southeast this afternoon. A drier airmass is working in behind it, as indicated by the diminished cloud cover on satellite over the Susitna Valley and northwest Copper River Basin. Low stratus and fog lingers from north of Knik Arm south to Anchorage and Turnagain Arm this afternoon, but is not as dense or widespread as this morning. A surface low remains southeast of Cordova this afternoon with scattered showers from Prince William Sound to the Copper River Delta.

Farther to the west, a ridge extends from the northern Pacific north to the eastern Bering. Northwesterly flow around the ridge, along with a trough sliding south, is keeping low clouds over much of Southwest Alaska this afternoon, especially over the Kuskokwim Delta and upslope sides of the mountain ranges. For the Aleutians and Bering, a 1002 mb low northwest of Attu is extending a front over the central Bering/Aleutians with widespread low clouds and fog.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement remains good through Friday with only outflow winds the predominant weather story for Southcentral. By Friday, models begin to diverge with regard to a developing triple-point low east of Kodiak Island. This low will spin up along an occluded front extending northeast from another low south of the eastern Aleutians. Most guidance (GFS/EC/Canadian) has this feature moving northeast, to a position near Cordova by late Friday into early Saturday. The 06z and the 12z NAM runs showed a more westward solution, potentially bringing precipitation to mush of the Kenai Peninsula and toward the Anchorage Bowl. However, the 18z run has drifted back to the east and is more in line with other models. Nevertheless, there is still plenty uncertainty with the evolution of an arctic low dropping south from Russia Wednesday into Thursday, and it is this feature and its interaction with the aforementioned eastern Aleutian low that will drive the development and placement of the Gulf low. Given this uncertainty, forecast confidence for the next system to impact Southcentral is below average.

AVIATION.

PANC . Low stratus over the terminal will allow MVFR to IFR ceilings to persist through the evening and overnight hours along with light winds. Fog may redevelop over the airport complex by early Wednesday morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tue afternoon through Fri afternoon) .

An upper level shortwave currently positioned over Kodiak Island is pushing eastward across the northern Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure continues to spin in place over the Prince William Sound area. This low will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary through the evening, allowing for residual rain showers to continue overnight for communities along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, low level stratus and fog that developed over the Anchorage Bowl and southern Susitna Valley this morning still remains in the area. Given that an upper level ridge is moving in overhead and "trapping" this moisture, current thinking is that the stratus clouds will lower again overnight creating foggy conditions again for Wednesday morning. This fog could also become more widespread over the Cook Inlet area, and may potentially spread southward over the Kenai/Ninilchik area by Wednesday morning.

Overall, conditions should remain clear and cold across much of Southcentral for Wednesday. The weak surface low currently in the vicinity of Prince William Sound may bring cloud cover and scattered snow showers to the southern Copper River Basin Wednesday into Thursday, but little to no accumulation is expected. By late Thursday, the focus shifts to an inbound upper level trough with an embedded shortwave digging southward over the state while a Bering low moves into the northern Gulf from the west. Given that ample cold air will already be in place across much of Southcentral, we'll certainly be keeping an eye on the track and strength of these two features. If all of the ingredients and timing come together just right, it could be the next possible chance for snowfall in Southcentral by the end of the week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday) .

A very quiet period of weather is expected across Southwest Alaska the next several days. A mix of sun and clouds are expected through Thursday, with clouds gradually clearing with time. A bit of fog is also possible the next two nights across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta. The Kuskokwim Mountains should work to block the Bering moisture from encroaching further east, so the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay will be faster to clear than the Kuskokwim Delta the next couple days.

A polar air mass will slowly move southward out of the interior and into Southwest Alaska the next couple days. This will initially result in slowly dropping temperatures area-wide through Thursday. On Thursday night into Friday, a strong low is expected to track well south of the area. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where the northern extent of the associated precipitation will be. The forecast trend has been north with time, and thus the chances of snow are not zero for primarily the Bristol Bay area, with rapidly increasing chances of snow the further south you go. What is highly certain, however, is that the low will effectively pull much colder air southward across the entire area, so by far the coldest temperatures of the season will be seen over the entire area from Friday night into the weekend. In the meantime, another highly certain portion of the forecast is that the winds will kick up, especially along the coast. This means mariners can expect light freezing spray along coastal waters Thursday night into Friday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday) .

A weak front over the central Bering this evening will gradually weaken as it moves across the Pribilofs on Wednesday. Behind it, a much stronger North Pacific low is expected to approach the central Aleutians Wednesday night, track to south of Nikolski Friday morning, then turn south away from the Aleutians back into the North Pacific. The leading front associated with the low will move across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, persisting along the AKPEN through Friday.

The low will produce storm force winds along the Central Aleutians, mainly west of Adak Wednesday night, weaken a bit through Thursday, then reintensify to storms north and west of Nikolski Thursday night. Gale force winds will overspread much of the Southern Bering by Friday. The low will bring much colder air southward across the Eastern Bering, but the modifying influence of the waters should limit snow totals, or keep the precipitation mostly as a cold rain for most Aleutian communities.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Northwesterly storm-force winds are likely across the southern Bering as well as the central and eastern Aleutians Friday as storm tracks south of the Chain. Storm-force gusts remain likely across the bays and passes of the eastern Aleutians and southern coastal AKPEN into Saturday. Winds and waves over this area will diminish by Sunday as a gale-force front looks to move over the western Aleutians.

For the Gulf, a low will spin up east of Kodiak Island with the potential for southerly gales over the northeasterly Gulf by late Friday into Saturday. Northwesterly gales are likely late Saturday into Sunday across the northern Gulf, especially through bays and passes, in the wake of the low.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

Models are coming into better agreement with the development of a ~990 mb low in the western Gulf on Friday, moving into the northern Gulf to the Southcentral Coast by Saturday morning. With colder air in place, this system is likely to produce snow from parts of Prince William Sound north to the Copper River Basin by Saturday. There is still uncertainty in the track of this system, however, and any westward wobble would mean the potential for snow for a greater portion of the Kenai Peninsula as well as the Anchorage Bowl and Mat Valley.

This system looks to then looks to move east as a ridge settles in over the interior. The result would be a return to a cold, northerly flow with gusty winds along the gaps of coastal Southcentral through early next week. There is plenty of uncertainty as to the strength of this ridge and whether a couple upper-level disturbances may produce some scattered snow showers across parts of Southcentral, especially over the mountains, next week.

Out west, scattered snow showers are expected across Southwest Alaska Saturday as a weak disturbance drops south. Lingering wind gusts across the eastern Bering/Aleutians and AKPEN will also be trending downward as a low south of the region shifts east. A front looks to clip the western Aleutians by Sunday as high pressure sits over the rest of the Chain. Another round of snow showers is possible by midweek across Southwest as another system drops southeast from Russia.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALE 175 176 178 STORM 177 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JPW MARINE/LONG TERM . TM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 30 mi56 min 44°F 48°F2 ft
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 33 mi86 min NNE 4.1 43°F 1013 hPa29°F
HMSA2 33 mi34 min NNE 12 G 17 43°F 1011.7 hPa26°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi56 min 48°F1013.8 hPa (+0.4)
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi56 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 45°F1014.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi56 minNE 410.00 miFair43°F30°F61%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE73Calm----------------NE4NW6NE6E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM AKDT     16.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:43 AM AKDT     2.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:56 PM AKDT     18.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:17 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM AKDT     3.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.216.416.214.511.78.25.13.12.74.27.311.315.117.718.517.514.911.27.34.43.23.86.310

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM AKDT     15.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM AKDT     2.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:05 PM AKDT     17.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:16 PM AKDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.415.313.911.384.92.92.43.66.410.113.816.417.516.814.510.97.24.32.93.45.58.912.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.