Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 8:49PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 12:08 AM AKDT (08:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:24AMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 355 Pm Akdt Tue Mar 31 2020
.small craft advisory through Wednesday...
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Wed..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Wed night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
Thu..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat through Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 010044 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 444 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A short-wave ridge has moved over Southcentral Alaska, with widespread sunny skies and generally light winds. A long-wave trough encompasses the Bering Sea and western Alaska. The feature of most interest is a surface low along the Alaska Peninsula, which has been tracking very slowly northeastward. Rain is falling across the southern Alaska Peninsula, and slowly spreading toward Bristol Bay, where a colder air mass is in place and will mostly lead to snow as precipitation first arrives this afternoon or evening. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough is digging southeastward across the western Bering Sea and into the North Pacific. This is leading to amplification of the upper level flow, which will cause the surface low along the Alaska Peninsula to take a more northerly track across the Alaska Peninsula and toward Bristol Bay. There are a few showers ahead of the upper short-wave crossing the Bering, but overall weather conditions across the Bering and Aleutians are benign.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement with large scale features through Friday. The primary forecast challenge will be precipitation type and snow accumulation, as these become more difficult late in the season due to the increasing sun angle and solar radiation.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). (Tonight through Friday evening)

A return to a more unsettled pattern is in store for all of southcentral Alaska and Kodiak Island, as a series of disturbances cross the region. The first pair of disturbances is a jet streak in the northern jet stream, currently lifting from the coastal regions of the Yukon Delta towards the North Slope, and a southern jet streak rounding the base of a ridge centered in the north central Pacific. This southern disturbance is currently south of Cold Bay and is heading for Kodiak Island.

This places Kodiak island, the Mat-Su Valleys, and the Anchorage Bowl/Kenai Peninsula in a coupled jet region to some extent (spacing between the northern and southern streams is a little further than what you'd normally prefer to see), allowing precipitation to continue to expand in coverage through at least Wednesday morning. This is also evident on the latest infrared satellite loop, as it shows cloud top cooling commencing.

As we head into Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, a lead vorticity lobe (another type of disturbance aloft) will pivot across the region that's attached to a Siberian mid-level low, followed by a deepening trough that dives from the Kuskokwim Delta towards the southwestern Gulf. This latter feature has shown a deeper signature in the latest numerical runs, as energy in the jet stream from the Siberian low gets infused into it as it enters our neck of the woods. This places all of southcentral in a favorable left exit region, with cyclogenesis (low pressure development) occurring in the base of the trough over the Gulf by Friday. These features will be good sources of lift in an increasingly moist atmosphere.

The net affect of all this is precipitation will affect all of the region at some point during the next few days, with snow being the predominating precipitation type for the interior mainland, aside from near the Cook Inlet where sufficient warming may allow for a brief mix of rain and snow to occur during peak heating on Thursday, and near the coastal locations of the Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Wed and Thu) . A weak closed low is drifting across the Alaska Peninsula and pushing a frontal system onto the coast of Bristol Bay this evening. This will bring light snow and gusty winds to the area through the evening. However, the system will also bring some warmer air, especially in locations where winds shift out of the southeast (King Salmon, Iliamna). This will allow rain to mix in with the snow and limit potential accumulations for many population centers. The other factors that will keep accumulations in check will be the sun angle and length of day. As we move into April, significant accumulating snows become harder to come by. That said, the area north and west of King Salmon may see several inches of snow.

This system now appears to hang up along the Alaska Range longer into Thu. We have increased PoPs over those interior locations Thu with a deep (albeit fast-moving) trough, cold air advection, and moderate southwest flow. This feature holds on until a much stronger shortwave plows into SW AK from the Bering Strait. This final system won't have much moisture associated with it, but it will bring a robust, reinforcing shot of cold air. After a final passing shot of snow, there will be a short-lived lull in the active pattern for Fri before another system arrives for the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2. Wed and Thu) . A weak closed low will slide over the Alaska Peninsula while weather remains relatively quiet over the Bering to start this period. The low will continue to keep low ceilings and mostly rain (mixed with some snow at higher elevations) along the Alaska Peninsula tonight. A developing inverted trough will help to keep light rain falling from Sand Point east Wed night into Thu. Active weather will resume over the Bering courtesy of a potent shortwave tracking east off the Kamchatka Peninsula. This should bring gale force winds to much of the Bering Sea late Wed into Thu. The next system will drive up from the North Pacific into the Western Aleutians late Thu into Fri. We have introduced some storm force gusts with this feature. It will also bring very warm air (850 mb temperatures at 6C) and widespread moderate rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians . A large and strong storm system approaches the Bering from the North Pacific on Friday. There is a fairly large disagreement with respect to how fast the system is moving, though there is consistency with the system tracking northeastward from the western Bering/Aleutians into the central Bering. Gale force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening across the western Aleutians. There is low to moderate confidence that these gale force sustained winds will reach the central Aleutians. Confidence in the overall forecast rapidly degrades on Saturday as large discrepancies exist between guidance. The forecast challenge during this period will be the location of gale force sustained winds as different solutions show gales, however they show these gales are in different portions of the Bering.

Gulf of Alaska . Uncertainty increases on Friday as solutions show a weak low developing in the northern Gulf, though solutions vary with the placement and intensity of the low center. There is a chance that this low will produce gale force northwesterly gap winds at times through the straits in the western Gulf on Friday. There is low confidence in the wind forecast on Saturday, especially across the western Gulf as solutions show significant differences in a low over the central to eastern Bering.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday).

The upper ridging over the Bering is expected to move over the Alaskan mainland on Saturday which will result in quiet weather across the area. This upper ridging will not last long as guidance is consistent with a second upper trough moving over the Alaskan mainland Sunday afternoon. There is a high degree of variation in the magnitude of this incoming upper trough but we can infer this will mean colder than normal temperatures for the region. Guidance shows the upper trough remaining in place over the Alaskan mainland on Monday and Tuesday which will allow for these cold temperatures to continue across the area.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 178. Heavy Freezing Spray 180. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PD SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MSO MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 33 mi99 min SSE 11 35°F 1025 hPa20°F
HMSA2 33 mi37 min ESE 5.1 G 8 35°F 1024.3 hPa20°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi69 min 39°F1026.2 hPa (+0.5)
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi69 min NNE 7 G 8.9 29°F 1028.6 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi76 minESE 510.00 miOvercast35°F21°F57%1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NE5NE3CalmNE5NE5NE5N3NE4NE7E8NE6E3NE5E5NE3E3E5SE6SE8
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1 day agoNE10NE8E8N4NE4CalmCalmN4N6N11E6E6SE6E7E7E8E7E8E7E4CalmN3N3NE3
2 days agoNE3N5E8NE9NE6NE12NE10NE9NE10NE9NE11E10E13E13NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:21 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 02:54 AM AKDT     7.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:40 AM AKDT     15.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:03 PM AKDT     3.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:52 PM AKDT     13.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.79.187.68.310.112.314.215.315.514.612.810.47.95.84.33.74.25.77.79.711.61313.4

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:59 AM AKDT     7.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:21 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:37 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM AKDT     14.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:08 PM AKDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:01 PM AKDT     12.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.87.77.37.89.411.413.114.214.513.912.2107.65.643.43.85.16.98.810.611.912.412

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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