Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ninilchik, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, scattered showers are forming across the Southwest Alaska mainland as a low over the Alaska Peninsula moves eastward.
Wind speeds are relatively light and easterly in the mainland.
The Eastern Aleutians are a different story. They are seeing heavy rains and gusty galeforce northwesterly winds, especially out of gap regions. The western Aleutians are under a ridge and are relatively calm with scattered showers. As the low continues its trek eastward on Wednesday, the main core of precipitation will move over the mainland, allowing for more widespread rains and gusty easterly winds out of the Kamishak Gap into Bristol Bay. The Bering will see a weaker low push a front into the western Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for another round of precipitation and small craft winds. This low will quickly weaken and phase into the first low by Thursday. It will drag an area of light precipitation and winds into the Fox Islands on Thursday before this happens.

The first low will push into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday, and higher pressure will build into the southwest mainland, allowing for drier and calmer conditions through Friday. Although, lingering showers are still possible in the Lower Kuskokwim Delta.
Also, gusty winds out of the Kamishak Gap will also linger through Friday morning. The Bering will have a broad ridge set up, allowing for calmer and less rainy conditions. However, this ridge will quickly be pushed southeastward by a strong Kamchatka low from the west. A strong front from the low marches through the Aleutians, arriving at the Fox and Pribilof Islands by Friday night/Saturday morning. Gale force winds and heavy rains will be associated this front.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A number of upper level low centers progress from the Russian Far East across the Bering and Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Main jetstream energy remains across the North Pacific into the new week, with shortwaves passing through the pattern. Most of the active weather will be occurring over the Southern portions of the state. Ensemble forecast models handle the features overall with some variations in timing of individual events.

Lingering showers are expected over the Southern half of Mainland Alaska through the weekend. A well developed low and front pushing across the Western Aleutians and Bering brings moderate rain and locally gusty winds across the region. This front moves over the Central and Eastern Bering on into Western Alaska, the AKPEN and Kodiak Island Sunday before spreading across Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. Locally moderate rain moves further into the Interior with the front extending across the coasts. The supporting surface low crosses the AKPEN Monday and slips South of Kodiak Island through Tuesday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period. The Turnagain Arm wind will continue to bend over the terminal this evening, slowly decreasing through the overnight hours. Thursday looks to be a scenario where the wind is not necessarily bending over the terminal, but where the wind is only clipping the airport, coming straight out of Turnagain Arm.

MTL