Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seward, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather will continue across Southwest Alaska today as a secondary shortwave rotates around the southern end of a relatively strong (990 mb) occluded low pressure system loitering over St. Lawrence Island. Persistent windy conditions (30 to 35 mph gusting up to 40 mph) and moderate precipitation will be highest across the Kuskokwim Delta, lower Kuskokwim river valley, and Bristol Bay regions through this afternoon. While not as strong, gusty conditions (gusts up to 30 mph) will continue across the central and Southern Bering. More settled conditions are expected across the Aleutian chain, and Alaska Peninsula with little measurable precipitation and winds decreasing through the day.

The low will continue to linger near Saint Lawrence Island before drifting to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning. Reductions in both wind and precipitation will become apparent late this afternoon, with a much more settled pattern lined up from Wednesday morning through the end of the work week.

Additional rainfall of up to 0.6 inches is expected from the Western Capes to Bethel and Aniak, through Wednesday morning. Light accumulation will continue into Thursday. During the same period, 0.10 to 0.25 inches will be possible across northern Bristol Bay and the western foothills of the Alaska Range.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

To start out the longer term period, an upper-level low will remain in place across interior Alaska on Friday. This low moves off to the east across Yukon, Canada by Saturday. Aside from some scattered showers at times across the Southern Mainland, expect mostly quiet weather for Friday and Saturday.

The long-term forecast becomes more uncertain for Saturday and Sunday, especially for the Bering and Aleutians. The point of uncertainty arises with how guidance wants to handle upper-level energy coming out of Kamchatka. The Canadian and European suites want to develop this energy more than the GFS. Hence the GFS has a drier solution across the Aleutian Chain while the European and Canadian suites are wetter. Also of note, while the Canadian and European guidance does develop the Kamchatka energy, the resulting surface low is not expected to be strong at this time.

Across the Southern Mainland for Sunday, like the Bering, there is some uncertainty in the forecast. The Canadian and European suites take a shortwave moving out of the Arctic and keep it confined more to Northern Alaska which would be a drier solution for the Southern Alaska. The GFS, on the other hand, wants to dig this shortwave more to south and over Southern Alaska which would be a wetter solution for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska for Sunday. For Monday, an upper-level low over interior Alaska moves south towards Southern Alaska. There does not look to be a lot of moisture with this system at this time and the likely outcome for Monday will be that this upper-level system helps to kick off some diurnally-forced showers across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.


AVIATION

PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will continue to steadily relax this morning through early afternoon. Periods of steady light rain will continue to move over the terminal through this morning before tapering off by early this afternoon with ceilings expected to remain in the VFR range.