Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seward, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today through Monday)...

Northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea.
The large blocking ridge visible in satellite imagery continues to remain in place centered over the western Aleutians, while low stratus blankets the western Bering Sea underneath the ridge. This persistent pattern continues through the remainder of the weekend and into next week, with relatively inactive weather expected across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the Aleutians. A small shortwave moving up and over the ridge will move quickly north-to-south across coastal Southwest. A brief chance for snow showers is expected, quickly coming to an end by Sunday morning.

An Arctic trough digs southwards today across the Interior and eventually stretches into the Gulf of Alaska for Sunday. With the ridge remaining nearly stationary, this will again allow for northerly to northwesterly winds to strengthen across Southwest Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea for Sunday into Monday. These stronger winds combined with low level cold air advection will lead to areas of heavy freezing spray in coastal waters along the ice edge and the Pacific-side of the Alaska Peninsula. Periods of blowing snow will also be possible for locations including the Kuskokwim Delta coast and portions of the Alaska Peninsula as winds pick up and antecedent conditions remain favorable. As low pressure develops in the Gulf, winds are expected to remain elevated through the early part of next week.
Pattern is expected to remain persistent into the next work week with the next active system potentially bringing showers to the Central Aleutians by Tuesday morning.

-JH/CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday night through Saturday)...

The long-term begins late Tuesday with the stagnant high amplitude pattern in place -- a deep sub 500 dm upper-level low anchored over the northern Gulf and a stout 560+ dm ridge over the North Pacific and Western Bering/Aleutians.

The result of this pattern is continued cold across the state, with the core of the arctic airmass draped across the Copper River Basin and Interior and Western Alaska. Expect temperatures to remain well below average with overnight lows well below zero and daytime highs struggling to climb out of the single digits and teens for the typically coldest locations. Closer to the Southcentral coast, temperatures will still be well below normal, but not quite as cold as multiple surface lows keep clouds and areas of snow showers along the coast.

Between the two longwave features, multiple shortwaves will dive south across the eastern half of the Bering through the week.
These shortwaves will bring periods of snow to the Pribilofs, eastern half of the Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. In addition to the snow showers, gusty northerly winds will maintain along these same areas, with the strongest winds and gusts likely across the Alaska Peninsula and the coastal waters from the Barren Islands to Unimak Island. Gusty winds will also continue across favored gap and mountain pass locations across Southcentral as cold air continues to spill southward and the tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge over the Interior and multiple surface lows persists.

AVIATION

An upper level trough over the Anchorage area, combined with low level moisture moving in from the southeast is producing some light snow over the airport this afternoon. With Anchorage being on the far west side of the snow, conditions are expected to remain mostly VFR in spite of the snow. However, even in a light snow event, a chance for some MVFR periods through early evening cannot be ruled out. By midnight, northerly winds should help usher in drier air and end the snow. Clouds should dissipate on Sunday with VFR conditions and northerly winds 10 to 15 kt.