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PKZ714 Resurrection Bay- 355 Pm Akst Mon Nov 27 2023
.small craft advisory Tuesday...
Tonight..S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
Tue..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri through Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 280200 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/This afternoon through Thursday afternoon)...

A longwave trough is in place over much of Alaska and the Bering Sea, with several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow aloft.
These shortwaves will bring a continuation of active weather as they move into Southcentral Alaska in the coming days. The primary hazard to watch for will be heavy precipitation and the potential for blowing snow through Turnagain Pass on Wednesday.

Overall, as can be seen today, precipitation type at the lower levels remains a challenge. Many areas warmed much above freezing today due to low-level southerly flow, leading to little in the way of snow accumulation. With temperatures remaining right around freezing through at least Thursday, there will continue to be uncertainty with precipitation type at lower elevations.

For tonight, expect precipitation to become more sporadic as the front weakens and showers move in behind it. More persistent precipitation is on the way by Tuesday morning as the next shortwave (and its attendant compact low) sweeps in from the southwest. This will spell wet conditions for Kodiak Island, Western Susitna Valley, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. With a colder airmass in place, this will be mostly in the form of snow, with a mix of rain and snow likely for areas along the coast near sea level. Southerly flow should keep the remainder of Southcentral Alaska on the drier end due to terrain blocking. Aside from some increases to precipitation amounts for Prince William Sound, the biggest forecast update with this system has been to increase winds due to the tightened pressure gradient. Gusty winds are expected through Turnagain Arm into South Anchorage, as well as from Knik Valley into Palmer and across the Copper River area.

Stronger winds and heavier precipitation are on the way by Wednesday as a deep North Pacific low tracks into the Gulf. Some uncertainty remains with the position of the low center, but confidence is high that winds will reach storm force in marine areas along the coast and that heavy precipitation will affect Eastern Kenai Peninsula. As mentioned previously, we are monitoring the potential for heavy snow rates in Eastern Kenai Peninsula (especially Turnagain Arm) on Wednesday morning, with snow rates of 1 inch per hour possible. Winds will also be quite gusty through Turnagain Pass through this time, but current thinking is that warmer temperatures will lead to more of a wet, heavy snow than a light, transportable kind; as such, blowing snow is possible but not a major concern at this time. Overall, the heaviest precipitation is expected in Eastern Kenai Peninsula, with lighter precipitation expected in Prince William Sound. For most other areas, downslope drying will keep precipitation fairly limited.

-KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

A broad, complex trough continues to slowly drift east over the Bering Sea this afternoon as numerous smaller, embedded lows and troughs rotate around the broad envelope of cyclonic flow. Two notably potent lows producing winds up to gale force are now part of this broader complex, one in weakening phase north of St Matthew and another rapidly spinning up south of the eastern Aleutian Chain. An army of convective snow showers is continuing to affect much of the outlook area in between these two features as cold air continues to stream east over the comparatively warm sea surface.

Across the Southwest, the low currently forming south of the Aleutians will soon become a key player in the forecast by later tonight into Tuesday. This low will move very quickly northeast across the AKPen later tonight, sending a quick round of rain and higher elevation snow through along with winds briefly ramping up to gale force on the Pacific side near and east of Sand Point. The low will move swiftly north from there into Bristol Bay on Tuesday morning, then up through the Lower Kuskokwim Valley before it exits to the north by Tuesday evening. An intense but fairly brief round of snow will follow this low north, while enough warm air works in to the east of the center for a period of mixing or changeover to rain across the southeastern two thirds of Bristol Bay during the day on Wednesday. The heaviest snowfall will mostly be focused over the Kilbucks and Kuskokwim Mountains, but as much as 3 to 5 inches of accumulation will be possible for spots including Togiak, Aniak and Sleetmute before the low moves off to the north late on Tuesday. Conditions across Southwest will become a bit calmer and cooler later in the week, although additional light snow could affect eastern parts of the region as another low moves into the Gulf on Wednesday.

Out across the Bering and Aleutians, snow showers and winds up to low end small craft range will continue through Tuesday night as the low currently north of Saint Matthew finishes making a cyclonic loop back south almost all the way back to the Pribilofs and finally dissipates early Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong low moving south of Kamchatka will push a gale force front into the western and central Aleutians from late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warmer air mass with mainly rain will advance with the front as it lifts north and as easterly gale force winds flip to southwesterly behind the front along the Aleutian Chain on Wednesday. The parent low will approach the far southwest corner of the Bering late Wednesday night into early Thursday, pushing a core of winds up to storm force and seas up to 40 ft into waters south of the far western Aleutians through Thursday. A new low will likely form along the front near the southern end of the AKPen on Thursday as well, helping to focus continued periods of mainly rain near Sand Point and Cold Bay.

AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long-term forecast period begins Friday morning with fair model agreement depicting a broad upper-level trough stretched across the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska, creating several surface low pressure centers in the southeastern Bering and northwestern Gulf. These lows will draw westerly gales across the Aleutian Chain and easterly gales across the northern Gulf coast into Prince William Sound. Generally a showery, wet pattern will be in place across all of Southern Alaska, with areas such as the lower Kuskokwim Valley, and Copper River Basin seeing relatively less precipitation than surrounding regions. Looking into Saturday model uncertainty increases, with some solutions keeping a low pressure center spinning near Bristol Bay, while other solutions retreat the low to the Western Bering. These discrepancies lead to a difficult forecast as to the behavior of the Bering early next weekend. By Sunday and Monday, model disagreements become severe with some solutions keeping a low in the Southern Bering and granting Southcentral a reprieve in rain and winds. While other solutions spin up a new low pressure center in the northern Gulf of Alaska coast that would bring another strong shot of precipitation and strong winds to the Southcentral coastline, while keeping the Bering relatively benign. Overall, a wet pattern for the Aleutians and Southcentral regions, and looking colder and drier from mid to late week for Southwest Alaska.

CL

AVIATION

PANC...Gusty south winds around 15kt with gusts to 25kt will continue through the evening and will diminish Tuesday morning.
CIGS and visibility this evening will remain predominately VFR, but CIGS will become mainly MVFR after midnight and remain mainly MVFR through Tuesday morning. Brief IFR CIGS are possible this evening through Tuesday morning as scattered rain and snow showers pass over the terminal.

CC

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Seward
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Tue -- 01:51 AM AKST     9.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM AKST     3.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:27 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:07 PM AKST     12.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:44 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:03 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM AKST     -1.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Day Harbor
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Tue -- 01:50 AM AKST     9.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM AKST     3.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:25 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:04 PM AKST     12.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:45 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:58 PM AKST     -2.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Day Harbor, Alaska, Tide feet

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