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PKZ742 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 246 Pm Akdt Wed Oct 4 2023
.storm warning tonight...
Tonight..NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. S of anchor point, ne wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 042324 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 324 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

Clear and cool conditions prevail across southern Alaska today under the influence of an upper level ridge. This will be the last day of such conditions though, with a short-wave trough and occluding surface low tracking northward toward the Alaska Peninsula. An atmospheric river has formed on the west side of a strong blocking ridge centered over the far eastern Pacific.
The deep southerly flow is driving a warm front northward across the Gulf of Alaska. The resultant weather at the surface is rapidly strengthening winds and rain across the western Gulf/Kodiak Island and Alaska Peninsula up to Bristol Bay.
Meanwhile, a vertically stacked low over the western Bering Sea is tracking westward, with a weakening occluded front draped across the western to central Bering. Weather is quite benign along the Aleutian chain, with just some rain showers and patchy fog.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models are in good agreement with evolution of key features over the next couple days. The primary challenge is details of winter precipitation over interior southern Alaska tomorrow morning before a rapid warm-up arrives. For Saturday, model spread grows with the track of a low across the eastern Gulf and toward Southcentral. This results in uncertainty in the precipitation forecast from Cordova/Valdez through the Copper River Basin.

AVIATION

PANC...Light precipitation will spread out ahead of the warm front lifting across the Gulf, with arrival in the Anchorage area around 12Z Wednesday. Low level easterly cross-barrier flow will be strengthening. However, moist southerly flow aloft should be just enough to bring a short period of light rain. This will temporarily lower ceilings to low end VFR, but then expect some improvement as downslope flow strengthens and the initial areas of precipitation shifts northward. For the remainder of Wednesday, southeast flow will maintain VFR conditions, with a chance for occasional very light rain or sprinkles.

There likely will be a period of gusty northerly winds between 12Z and 18Z as the front nears the north Gulf coast. Winds will then diminish as the front begins to weaken.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

Mostly clear skies are currently giving way to clouds as a frontal system continues to lift northward through the Gulf.
Expect high end gales and widespread rain out ahead of the front across the coastal waters. A small area of storm-force winds is likely (80%-90%) for Thursday morning across the Barren Islands and extreme southern Cook Inlet as the front begins to move to the Southcentral coast. Widespread precipitation will continue to spread northward across Southcentral, first for Kodiak Island later this afternoon, then along the immediate coast by late tonight, moving over the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin by early morning Thursday. While most locations will remain warm enough for rain, colder air in place over the Copper River Basin will likely result in snow. A mix of rain/snow may also fall initially for parts of the Susitna Valley, especially areas around Willow and Skwentna, before a changeover to all rain.
Accumulating snow should remain more confined to the Copper River Basin as well as Thompson Pass for Thursday morning. Chances are high (80%-90%) for light snow accumulations for the Copper River Basin, especially the northern Copper River Basin where cold air hangs on longer, as well as for Thompson Pass. Gusty northeasterly winds could cause occasional blowing snow for Thompson Pass Thursday morning.

Winds will increase out of the Matanuska Valley later this evening through Thursday morning in advance of the first system, helping keep overnight lows tomorrow morning above the freezing mark from Palmer to Anchorage. Winds will also be on the increase for Kenai and Homer. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will also increase by early Thursday morning as the front draws closer to the coast.

This is a complex storm system, with the surface front stalling and weakening along the coast as its attendant upper-level front continues to lift into the interior of the state. As this wave moves north, the steadier precipitation is expected to diminish in coverage, especially for interior locations and areas in the lee of the coastal mountains. A secondary upper-level wave is then expected to travel along a north-south oriented cold front over the Gulf and move over Southcentral late Thursday evening. This feature will help drive the front on shore and provide additional moisture and lift to initiate a second round of precipitation for most of Southcentral into Friday. Warmer air will also accompany these features as they move north with a stronger southerly flow aloft developing. The advection of warmer air should allow any lingering snow in the Copper River Basin to transition to rain by late Thursday or early Friday morning.

Southerly flow continues in the middle and upper levels for Saturday as additional shortwaves continue to lift northward over Southcentral. This will help to keep precipitation going along the coast, especially for the usual upslope areas of the coastal mountains. However, there is still some uncertainty with how a surface low pressure in the eastern Gulf will track for Saturday.
A further southerly track further from the coast would yield lower precipitation totals for the northern Gulf Coast. A track closer to the coast would bring in higher precipitation totals. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates as the active pattern gets underway later this afternoon and tonight.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3, TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

A beautiful fall day with mostly clear skies and light winds over Southwest Alaska will give way to a storm force low pressure system moving rapidly north out of the North Pacific, crossing the Eastern Aleutians late tonight and over the Pribilof's on Thursday. A strong front wrapping around the low is impacting the Aleutians with strong winds, and heavy rain this afternoon. Expect winds to continue to increase to gales north of the AK Peninsula and a mix of max gales and storm force winds in the coastal waters south of the AK Peninsula this evening and into Thursday morning as the strong front pushes north and east. Conditions will deteriorate this evening over southwest Alaska as clouds and winds increase. Precipitation will increase in Southwest Alaska later tonight as the front approaches. Precip will remain all rain along the coast but may start as snow or a rain and snow mix for a few hours late tonight at New Stuyahok, Nondalton, and Thursday morning at Aniak, Crooked Creek, Lime Village. Despite previously cooler temperatures at or below freezing across Southwest, a quick warm up will minimize any measurable snow for all but the higher elevations as snow levels rise dramatically behind the front.
Conditions will remain showery into the weekend.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A mid/upper level longwave trough extends across the Bering into the Gulf of Alaska through much of the long term period.
Expecting this trough to persist through at least Tuesday, bringing with it an unsettled weather pattern as embedded surface low and associated frontal systems work around the periphery of the trough. By Wednesday, shallow mid/upper level ridging builds in ahead of deepening shortwave/closed-low off the southern Kamchatka Peninsula.

Sunday starts off with a dual low setup over the AOR, one across the Alaska Peninsula and another surface low within the eastern Gulf of Alaska. These two systems should bring widespread precipitation across much of southern mainland Alaska through the weekend and early week. Anticipating heaviest precipitation amounts along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula Coast up to the Copper River Delta before precip chances begin to taper off through Tuesday.

Northeasterly winds drawn from Interior Alaska via the Kuskokwim Delta should result in gusty offshore winds, potentially increasing to near gale force for the areas near: Kuskokwim Bay, parts of Bristol Bay, gap winds off the Alaska Peninsula and Barren Islands for Sunday into Tuesday. In addition, expecting gusty winds across the Pribilofs to the Aleutians Sunday through Tuesday.

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Ninilchik
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Wed -- 01:13 AM AKDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM AKDT     17.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:19 PM AKDT     4.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:56 PM AKDT     19.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ninilchik, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:03 AM AKDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM AKDT     17.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:09 PM AKDT     5.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:56 PM AKDT     19.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ninilchik, Alaska, Tide feet

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