Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clam Gulch, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Everything is on track with the Southwest Alaska forecast on Tuesday. A trough is currently pushing through the Seward Peninsula this morning with light rain clipping northern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta. The rest of Southwest is largely dry, though widespread cloud cover persists from the overnight hours.
Expect another cool day with minimal rain chances early on.
Tonight into Wednesday, a North Pacific low and its front are forecast to lift northward into Southwest with what should be an expanding area of rain and scattered showers from Wednesday morning into Wednesday night. Thursday should see rain chances linger across Southwest as a near stationary low over the Bering sends a wave of low pressure through the region. Precipitation will be more scattered or even isolated in nature on Thursday, but coverage should once again encompass all or most of the region.

Farther west, the stationary low over the Bering is forecast to move little through the weekend. This will keep low stratus and fog in the forecast for the next several days over the Bering with a broad region of small craft conditions and gale force gusts spanning from the Central Aleutians into Saint Matthew Island.
Southwesterly flow around the base of the low will allow for additional troughs and waves of low pressure to cross the Aleutians with periods of rain and windy conditions likely through the end of the week. In the immediate future, a front is quickly approaching the Central Aleutians and is bringing gusty southwesterly winds and increasing rain chances through much of the day today. Behind the front, visibility should improve as rain clears out, but low stratus will remain in its wake, helping to keep the sun from making an appearance. The front will eventually stall over the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians tomorrow, quickly dissipating as yet another trough emerges from the North Pacific. This trough will track from the Eastern Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula from Thursday into Friday.

-BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The big picture has a broad upper level low in the Bering Sea and a building ridge of high pressure extending from the North Pacific and across South Central Alaska through the forecast period. For South Central, the building, blocking ridge of high pressure will promote drier conditions across much of the region.

In the West, the upper level low pressure system generally remains over the central Bering Sea during the longterm. The main uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to how it interacts with surrounding shortwaves/lows and the speed of its surface front. The GFS/Canadian solutions would push the surface features quickly across SW AK whereas the European model now tends to have the features move slower across the region. Nonetheless, expect an active pattern out west for the forecast period.

-DD


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail for ANC, but cloud ceilings this morning will likely hover around or just below 5,000 ft. Any remaining shower activity should wrap up quickly this morning, although guidance suggests that ceilings between 12-18z could dip down to high end MVFR. Up-inlet flow returns this afternoon as clouds scatter out, which will bring southwesterly winds that could gust up to 15 kts before diminishing overnight.