Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cohoe, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A quieter weather pattern is expected across the region. Weak longwave troughing will bring the chance of rain and snow showers through the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula. Interior Southwest is expected to stay mostly dry. Broad northerly flow through out the region will trend the temperatures cooler as we approach closer to winter. A series of North Pacific lows through early next week are expected to remain south of the Aleutian Chain. There will be a slight uptick in winds and precipitation only for the first low tonight for islands west of Adak.

- SS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long term remains fairly active as a barrage of strong North Pacific lows track south of the Aleutian Chain and enter the Gulf through Friday.

Looking out west, there is good agreement of a gale force North Pacific low skirting south of the Western Aleutian Chain Tuesday.
With a suppressed storm track, this system will continue eastward and really only affect mariners south of the Chain. Out east, model consensus is solid that a surface low will be weakening Tuesday afternoon somewhere near the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. This will help to reinforce northwesterly gap winds across the Alaska Peninsula in the wake of this system. Coastal Southcentral Alaska looks to be on track to see upslope enhanced precipitation from this system. One tricky thing will be the low placement and if we see cross barrier (downsloping) flow for the northern Cook Inlet region with this system. The EC and its ensembles is the most bullish on areas like Anchorage seeing snow, while other models currently show a downslope hole across the region in lee of the mountains. A second low enters the Gulf on Tuesday, and the consensus is fair that this will round the Alaska Panhandle and Southcentral coast as a deep area of low pressure through Thursday and once again spread precipitation along the Gulf coast. There is lower confidence at this time of precipitation spilling over the mountains due to model spread of the low's location. The latest deterministic run of the GFS currently is the most aggressive model, while other global models show varying solutions due to model agreement breaking down near the end of the long term.

-AM


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to continue through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10 to 20 percent) of fog in the morning as clear skies lead to strong radiational cooling and development of steam fog over the inlet.
Any fog that does develop this morning is expected to dissipate by late morning to early afternoon as dewpoint depressions widen by then.