Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cordova, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula currently sit in a col of high pressure between broad low pressure in the northern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. This is bringing clearer skies and warmer temperatures to the region this afternoon ahead of an upper level easterly wave rotating in from the Gulf tomorrow. Warm surface temperatures ahead of this feature will promote favorable environments for thunderstorm development as the wave brings in ample moisture and increased instability. Chances are high that we'll see some lightning tomorrow afternoon and evening from the Kuskokwim Valley down to Bristol Bay. The best chances will be between Aniak and Lime Village, north. A slightly more stable atmosphere will return to Southwest on Wednesday before thunderstorm chances kick up again on Thursday afternoon.

Further west, low clouds and fog continue to plague the eastern and central Bering Sea. A North Pacific low will lift up towards the Western and Central Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon, bringing gale-force gusts and moderate rain as it tracks east through Thursday.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Much of the long term has good, broad scale agreement as an upper ridge of high pressure for the north-central part of the state remains in place as a large, upper level low encompasses much of the eastern Gulf. With daytime heating and a reinforced easterly flow, this is a good convective setup for storms for the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin for at least the first part of the period. There is fair confidence that the upper level dynamics for the west should allow for a series of shortwaves to rotate off of a main system south of the Aleutians beginning Friday, which could cut into the ridge and cause it to lift as the waves move eastward. Mid to late period, more of an Omega blocking pattern takes over across the region with upper troughing in the west and ridging extending northward from the Gulf into Southcentral. Overall, temperature and precipitation anomalies from the global models suggest that most areas of the east will stay warmer and some areas wetter than average, while the west could become cooler and wetter than average due to lows tracking across the Aleutians and Bering.

-AM


AVIATION

PANC...The persistent marine layer is still bringing in some lower clouds to the airport this afternoon, though they have not generally been as low as yesterday. This marine layer should get largely displaced after midnight as a Turnagain Arm winds moves over the airport and helps push out the marine air. This will all happen due to an easterly wave that will move over the region tomorrow morning. Anchorage is just on the edge of the expected precipitation so there may be some light rain Tuesday morning into early afternoon, but it is not expected to be very heavy. There will remain a chance for some MVFR ceilings through the TAF period due to either the marine layer or precipitation.