Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 191222 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 322 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper level low centered over western Russia is dominating the weather pattern across much of Alaska. Scattered rain/snow showers are continuing across the Bering/Aleutians this morning under a weak front. Snow is also presently occurring downstream of the trough axis associated with the aforementioned upper low, with a few inches of accumulation possible in the Bristol Bay region. The upper level pressure gradient over mainland Alaska has significantly decreased over the last few days. As such, outflow gap winds will continue to diminish. Precipitation on the north side of a Gulf low will gradually move into Prince William Sound through this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

As discussed yesterday, model disagreement still exists with regards to the low approaching the western Kenai Peninsula. The GFS is the most notably farther south and slowest of any of the main synoptic models, though cannot be completely discounted. As this is applicable to today's time frame, high-res models can also be examined. These indicate the low moving onshore near Seward Monday morning as does the RGEM, NAM and European models, making this the preferred solution as this time. If this track comes to fruition, accumulating snow would be likely for the Cook Inlet region Monday into early Tuesday.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A surface low over the northwest Gulf will move north today to just south of Prince William Sound by evening. The associated front will move from east to west, bringing increasing winds across the northern Gulf where it will then slowly move east and weaken. Precipitation will also spread westward today, with snow reaching the eastern Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. Snow could be heavy at times on the eastern Kenai through Monday morning with 10 to 20 inches of snow possible, with the highest amounts north of Moose Pass. For areas around Cook Inlet, there will be chances of snow through Monday as most of the moisture stays near the coast. Monday night looks like the best chance of snowfall inland as an upper level trough begins to push toward the area from the southwest. The airmass associated with this system is considerably warmer than what has been sitting over the area for the last few days, with temperatures expected to be in the 20s over Anchorage on Monday. There is the potential for rain mixing in with snow along the Gulf Coast, mainly near Cordova.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A weak band of snow showers situated west of King Salmon will continue to bring show showers for areas from Dillingham to Pilot Point. This band will shift slightly westward as it weakens through the afternoon, bringing a chance of snow showers for Port Heiden. Snow showers will taper off into the evening, leaving most of Southwest Alaska under cold and dry conditions through Monday. The next chance of snow will move in on Monday afternoon as another band of snow showers, associated with an upper level disturbance, tries to set up along the Southwest coast. However, there is still some uncertainty in where it will set up, but inland locations should remain dry through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Snow showers will persist across much of the Bering as a front over the central Bering and Aleutians weakens through this evening. The main feature driving the weather is a low over the northern Bering, which models have come in to better agreement for today. As this feature diminishes by Monday morning, a second low will likely develop through Monday afternoon over the northern Bering. There is still some uncertainty in timing and placement of this second low, but it should remain north of the Pribilofs through Tuesday. Expect snow showers and colder temperatures to move in over the next few days across the Bering and Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5. Tue through Thu) .

The primary areas of concern areas during this time period will be along the Aleutian Chain. One system will just track along the south side of the Chain Tuesday into Wednesday. This could bring easterly winds as high as high end gale force, but for now it looks like the strongest winds will stay south of the marine zones. The next system will push towards the Western Aleutians (Zones 177-178) late Wed into Thu. This system looks to bring a healthy swath of gale force winds from the Central to the Western ALeutians.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday).

On Tuesday, zonal flow is expected to exist in the Bering Sea and a diffuse pattern (not much going on) will exist in Southcentral AK. This will change Wednesday as long range guidance continues to show an upper level blocking ridge building from the north Pacific across the AKPEN and into the Bering Sea. An anchoring high will be present by Friday, securing the position of this ridge for the remainder of next week.

This means high pressure for the Bering Sea and cold air over mainland AK. It is possible for deep cold to return to the Copper River Basin late next week with this pattern. Offshore gusty winds will be possible in southwest AK and the western Gulf. Low pressure will be present somewhere in the Gulf of Alaska, but this is one feature guidance is having trouble with. We know a trough will dig south through eastern Alaska into a low in the gulf. However, there is disagreement where this will set up. For now it looks like the eastern Gulf will be impacted by any low pressure setup, but confidence is low with this aspect of the forecast. This pattern shift is something we will be paying close attention to, so expect modifications with the forecast in coming days.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory: 131. MARINE . Gale Warning: 119 120 127. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . BB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK	22 mi	50 min	E 5.1 G 6	31°F	39°F		994.2 hPa (-0.4)
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK	72 mi	50 min	ENE 8 G 9.9	10°F	43°F		999.5 hPa (+0.0)
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK	77 mi	60 min	NNE 16 G 18	31°F	42°F	10 ft	994.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Cordova, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK	10 mi	57 min	E 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	38°F	30°F	73%	994.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PACV

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK

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