Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 030112 CCA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 512 PM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Over Southcentral AK, a weak baroclinic wave is moving through the region. It is dropping steady light snow as it progresses east. It is supported at 500 mb (20,000') by a shortwave trough currently over Southwest Alaska that is digging southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. On- shore flow from the Bering coupled with this shortwave trough are producing low stratus and light snow. Out in the Bering, zonal flow exists between a low over the Bering Strait and High pressure in the North Pacific. Satellite is showing the entrance of the next frontal system into the Western Bering. This frontal system is associated with a strong low currently located directly south of Kamchatka and headed towards the Bering Sea.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to be consistent with each other and between runs. Therefore, we have high confidence in the short term. The only issue remains precipitation type in Southwest Alaska, which is something computer models traditionally struggle with. This is accentuated by warming temperatures during spring.

AVIATION. PANC . Light snow will continue to fall through tomorrow morning. Intensity will vary, causing visibility and ceilings to fluctuate between IFR and MFVR through tomorrow morning. The heaviest snow is expected this evening and tonight. Some MVFR ceilings will linger through tomorrow before ceilings clear tomorrow night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The timing of the upper level trough approaching Southcentral has been very good today. Snow began before sunrise and that has made a big difference in keeping precipitation-type as snow instead of mixing with rain over a widespread part of the area. That has been the big forecast challenge for this system: Does the temperature warm enough to turn to rain, or will the snow/clouds keep the temperature down enough for snow, especially accumulating snow? At this point in the system, it does look like areas from Kenai northward should remain all snow. The temperatures have been just warm enough to keep strong dendrite growth from occurring, so the snowflakes have been small and mostly melting upon falling on roadways. However, as temperatures drop tonight, accumulations are expected to increase. Farther south toward Kachemak Bay, enough warm air is present to bring rain, though this rain should turn to snow by midnight for the southern Kenai Peninsula as well.

Expect a brief clearing (or partial clearing), Friday afternoon into evening before the next batch of clouds move in for Saturday's system. There is a slight chance for some fog when it clears out, but we have refrained from putting much in the forecast at this point as the clearing is during the warmest part of the day and cloud cover increases again by midnight. The abundant moisture from rain and snow does make fog more likely, but expect the clearing to be too brief to expect much at this point.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday) .

Another very active period of weather is expected across Southwest Alaska going into the weekend. After this morning's fog and snow, a front moving into the Kuskokwim Delta this evening could cause areas of blowing snow into the evening, mainly north of Kipnuk. Snowfall with this front will be limited to an inch or so in most areas, as the front moves inland and weakens. A much stronger front will move into Southwest Alaska Friday evening. This front will bring a slug of much warmer air into Southwest Alaska, along with strengthening southwest onshore wind flow. Since the winds will be largely unidirectional, the winds should have no problem eroding any cold air left in place, even though much of the precipitation will occur overnight Friday night into Saturday. Since most of the upper level energy will focus north of the area, most of the associated precipitation will be focused across the Kuskokwim Valley and the west facing slopes of the mountains. Along the coast into Bristol Bay, lighter precipitation and warmer conditions should mean much of the precipitation falls as a cold rain. Where cold air hangs on the longest, mainly over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, a few inches of snow are possible overnight. Onshore southwesterly flow will continue into the day on Saturday, as temperatures warm into the upper 30s for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with low to mid 40s expected from King Salmon and Dillingham south. Thus, in the lower elevations, any precipitation that falls during the day on Saturday will be rain.

Another shot of winter-like cold returns in a big way Saturday night as a strong and powerful cold front sweeps west to east across Southwest Alaska. The onshore flow coupled with cold air moving in should mean widespread snow shower activity is expected all across Southwest Alaska, but favoring the mountains for Saturday night through the day on Sunday. Accumulations should be relatively minimal, especially during the day for most non- mountainous areas. However, any shower activity will have the potential to bring down visibilities in the gusty winds. The cold looks to persist over the area through at least mid-week next week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday) .

A strong warm front encroaching on the Western Bering this afternoon will rapidly sweep across the Bering through Friday afternoon. This will bring much warmer air over the area, bringing much of the Aleutians into the 40s. It will be wrapping around a large low over the western Bering, which will ratchet up the southwesterly winds out ahead of it. Storm force winds are expected over the waters north of Adak on Friday. A similarly powerful cold front follows behind the low, moving into the western Aleutians Friday evening, then sweeping across the Bering, reaching the coast of Southwest Alaska Saturday evening. The cold, Siberian air mass following behind it will cause gales and widespread snow shower activity to develop. The gales will persist over the Northern Bering into Sunday. A large area of high pressure will build over the Aleutians by Sunday evening.

.Marine (Days 3 - 5/Sunday-Tuesday)

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

There is a high forecast confidence that gale force winds will occur in the eastern Bering Sea on Sunday. Confidence is much lower with respect to a weak low developing in the western Bering on Sunday then moving into the central Bering on Monday as guidance shows different solutions in the placement and intensity of this low. However, winds associated with this low are expected to remain below gale force. There is low confidence in the wind forecast on Tuesday as a front will move northward into the western Bering/Aleutians. Guidance shows differences in the speed at which the front is moving and differences in the intensity of the front. However, winds are expected to remain below gale force at this time.

Gulf of Alaska:

High confidence exists in a weak low developing over the northern Gulf on Sunday and thus gale force northwesterly gap winds are expected in the western Gulf. Freezing spray associated with these strong northwesterly gap winds is likely as strong cold air advection will be present. There is low confidence in the wind forecast on Monday as guidance shows different solutions with the placement of synoptic features. However, the general trend is that the strong northwesterly gap winds gradually ease as transient high pressure moves over the Gulf. Very low forecast confidence is in store for Tuesday as another low moves into the Gulf from the west. Guidance shows very different solutions in the placement and intensity of this low, though as of now winds are expected to remain below gale force.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday-Thursday).

Guidance shows some discrepancies with the placement of synoptic features on Monday as some solutions show an upper low over the northeastern Alaskan mainland while others show this low centered over central interior Alaska. However, one area of consistency is there will be an upper trough that will encompass the central and eastern Alaskan mainland and thus colder temperatures are expected across those areas. Guidance is consistent with the general pattern on Tuesday with a second upper trough moving into the Alaskan mainland from the Bering, though there are discrepancies on the speed of its movement. Due to these speed discrepancies, the forecast confidence is low as this will influence the speed at which the surface cold front will move. Generally, it is to be expected that cold temperatures will continue across mainland Alaska and winter will continue. Forecast confidence becomes very low Wednesday onward as guidance shows significant differences in the upper level synoptic pattern which results in significant differences in the synoptic pattern at the surface.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 175 178 413 Gale Warning 165 170 173 174 176 177 179 411 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . ED

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK	22 mi	60 min	NE 1 G 1.9	32°F	39°F		1022.4 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK	72 mi	60 min	NNW 1 G 1.9	32°F	43°F		1022.9 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK	77 mi	64 min	SSE 5.8 G 9.7	35°F	40°F	2 ft	1022.2 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Cordova, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK	10 mi	61 min	N 0	1.25 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	30°F	28°F	96%	1023.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PACV

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK

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