Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toksook Bay, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

-A front brings widespread showers to the Southern Interior through Tuesday. Most rain will be south of Fairbanks to the Alaska Range. Rain totals of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch expected.
The most likely scenario for Fairbanks still appears to be just a short period of light rain overnight Monday into Tuesday..

-Precipitation with the front will begin as rain, but snow levels will fall to around 1500 feet Monday night, with accumulating snow possible along the Parks and Richardson Highways through the Alaska Range. See Special Weather Statement for more details.

-Sunny skies return for Wednesday and Thursday along with breezy northeast winds gusting to 25 mph in valleys and up to 35 mph over higher terrain north of Fairbanks.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Showery conditions from the Seward Peninsula south on Tuesday, then drying and warming expected Wednesday through the end of the week.

-Winds remain offshore and 15 mph or less.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
-Easterly winds persist through the week.

-Areas of blowing snow will persist near Point Lay through Tuesday afternoon. Visibility could be reduced to 1 mile at times. At this time, do not anticipate the need for a Winter Weather Advisory though.

-High temperatures will be mainly in the 20s, but in the 30s in the Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A moist and stable front from the Bering Sea lies from Galena to Lake Minchumina to Denali this afternoon, slowly progressing northeast. Between 0.1" and 0.5" of rain with this front have fallen since last night southwest of Kaltag to Poorman to Telida. This front will continue northeast this evening, likely stalling just south of Tanana to Fairbanks to Eagle Summit to Chicken. Areas north of this line will see little if any precipitation as the front fights dry air still moving south from a high in the Arctic. Precipitation will taper off Tuesday south of Fairbanks and over the Alaska Range, though cooler air moving in overnight may turn rain through Alaska Range Passes to snow before precipitation tapers off. 1-3" of snow is likely from Healy to Cantwell and from Donnelly to Isabel Pass.
See Special Weather Statement for more details. On Wednesday ridging will build over the area, bringing a return of dry and springlike conditions through the end of the week for most areas, though some showers are possible over the southern Interior Friday as a backdoor low scoots west out of the Yukon Territory. The North Slope will remain beneath high pressure with east winds and near normal temperatures.

For the forecast today, we lowered PoPs along the northern edge of the front and increased snow amounts in the Alaska Range. The Hydrologic Outlooks for the Yukon and Koyukuk River breakups were updated. Do not anticipate the need for any new watch/warning/advisory products overnight.

FIRE WEATHER
Conditions are moderating across the snow free areas of the Interior this afternoon as clouds ahead of a stable front from the Bering Sea move overhead. Expect wetting rains, and snow above 1500ft, overnight tonight and into Tuesday south of Fairbanks to Tanana. Wetting rain has already fallen southwest of Kaltag to Poorman to Telida. With these moderated conditions, temperatures will be 8-10 degrees cooler across much of the Interior on Tuesday with min RH above 30%, except in the Yukon Flats where RHs will dip into the low 20s and precip is not expected. On Wednesday, sunny skies will return along with breezy east/northeast winds and low RHs. This will persist into Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Breakup along the Upper Yukon River remains stalled below Fort Yukon since last Tuesday (May 6). The ice is degrading and breaking up locally but in-place ice remains intermittently below the mouth of the Porcupine River down to the confluence with the Tanana River. With water levels remaining low, there isn't much force to push the remaining ice out and it is expected to continue degrading over the next few days. The Yukon River is open from Tanana to Grayling and opening up at Anvik. Below Anvik the river is a mix of open areas and thermally degraded in-place ice.
The River Watch team will be in the air over the lower Yukon starting tomorrow and will provide updates daily. On the Koyukuk River, the river ice at Hughes lifted on Friday and is thermally degraded but in-place down to Winthrop Point. Below Winthrop Point the river is a mix of degraded in-place ice on bends alternating with open stretches of water to near the mouth which is open for several miles upstream of the community of Koyukuk.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...The extended period will begin on Friday with a back door upper low over the Central Interior. This will likely bring some rain showers to the southern Interior, but as is typical with this pattern, uncertainty is high on the exact timing and placement. Otherwise, the deep upper trough looks to remain over Alaska through next week with periods of weak ridging.
This will keep conditions largely unimpactful with showers and near normal temperatures across the area. Thunderstorms look to be extremely isolated through next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.