Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:59AMSunset 3:45PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:23 PM AKST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 338 Pm Akst Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory through Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu and Thu night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat through Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 110154 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The low that affected southern Alaska yesterday is located near the Bering Strait this afternoon and another low can be seen well south of the Gulf of Alaska. Therefore, most of southern Alaska is under weak high pressure between these systems.

A large upper level low is centered over the Bering Sea and has a trough that extends over the AK Peninsula and then south of the Gulf of AK. The Upper level ridge is over the northern AlCan border to British Columbia. This pattern is keeping Southern Alaska under Southeasterly flow aloft, though not as strong as it was yesterday. The jet stream is mainly running west-to-east along the 35N to 40N parallels. However, it does not look like it will amplify much over the next few days which will limit the amount of strengthening and northward movement of the low referenced earlier that is south of the Gulf of Alaska today.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement through the week. While small differences in track and timing can be pointed out, they should not have significant impact on the forecast and large scale changes to the forecast are not anticipated.

AVIATION. PANC . Fog and stratus will be the challenges for the PANC TAF overnight. While fog developed late this morning, it is very shallow and mostly localized to the Anchorage area. Conditions could worsen after sunset. However, there will be an increase in low level flow overnight, which looks like just enough to limit fog potential. Thus, believe conditions will generally improve after this evening. If it turns out flow is not strong enough, shallow fog could linger longer than advertised in the TAF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tuesday night through Thursday) .

Weather is calming down with exit of the low pressure system last night. However, the break will be brief as the overall weather pattern of broad low pressure over the state will send another low north into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. This low will approach the coast Wednesday morning, providing another round of rain and wind for Southcentral AK. However, it will be substantially weaker than the previous low and will not work as far inland. This means winds won't be as strong and it will be limited to just coastal areas, with more inland locations (like the Mat-Su) not receiving any precipitation at all. This low is already evident on satellite tracking north in the Pacific, so the forecast looks to be on track. There is also good model agreement with this low, so we are confident in the forecast.

Another area of emphasis today is the clearing weather that will allow inland temperatures to fall, especially for the Copper River Basin. Northerly winds and cold air advection will aid temperature decrease. Therefore, dropped temperatures in the forecast today with teens overnight in the Copper River Basin and cooling to single digits for lows by Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper level disturbance is dropping some scattered showers on parts of Southwest Alaska this afternoon. This feature comes ahead of a north Pacific low that enters the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday night. A generous amount of warm air advects in with this system and will kick off as rain over southwest Alaska, with snow expected over the Kuskokwim River Valley. The return of cold air at the surface from northeast winds will create the possibility for some light snow and freezing rain on Wednesday in the Kuskokwim Delta. Precipitation will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as the low pulls away in the Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Low pressure tracked out of the northern Bering into Siberia and left a wide band of west/northwest winds west of the Pribilof Islands. Satellite imagery shows a broad area of scattered showers in the western Bering. This showery regime should continue through Thursday west of the Pribilofs. A strong low is expected to approach the Western Aleutians on Thursday evening. A north Pacific low will approach the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday morning and will bring rain to the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians on Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will move from the north Pacific on Friday to near Atka by Saturday morning. This feature will send a frontal boundary into the south central Bering Sea during Saturday morning, with the low bottoming out near 960 mb. Some sustained gales will likely accompany these features, with gusts just short of storm force likely, especially out of bays and passes. This system then moves off to the east southeast by Sunday afternoon.

Given a long fetch length, look for seas to build into the 20 to 25 feet range south of the Aleutian chain during the forecast period. For the remainder of the region, winds look to remain below gales with seas less than 15 feet expected.

. Gulf of Alaska .

An area of low pressure will move into the southwestern Gulf by Friday morning, with sustained gales developing for the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast . eastward towards the Copper River Delta. Sustained gales are also likely across the southern Gulf. This low then slowly reaches Kodiak Island Saturday while weakening, before moving into southwest Alaska on Sunday while dissipating. As a result, winds area wide will decrease for to small craft criteria near the coast on Saturday, and remain below headlines for Sunday.

As for your waves, the look to be highest across the eastern half of the outer waters, where they'll peak in the 20 to 25 feet range Friday, dropping further for the weekend.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have come into better, though not perfect agreement for the long term. Expect a continued active pattern over the Aleutians through the end of the weekend, while quieter weather will persist over Southcentral. Friday, a low in the western Gulf of AK will continue to swing a series of weak fronts toward the North Gulf Coast, bringing periods of precipitation through the end of the weekend. Precipitation will be concentrated on southeast facing slopes, particularly on Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska/Aleutian Range. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Yukon and interior AK will strengthen, and conditions will trend colder over inland areas of the Southern Mainland. Out west, a strong low south of the central Aleutians will swing an occluded front across the chain and generate a healthy round of precipitation over the Aleutians and likely into the Southwest Mainland Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances look highest in the Bristol Bay area, with the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta likely staying drier in offshore flow. However, it's hard to have much certainty this far out and with run-to-run model inconsistencies. Another low will approach the western Aleutians Monday, bringing another round of precipitation and active weather.

In short, expect temperatures to trend colder through the long term, especially for interior areas. With each system, precipitation will progress from the Aleutians toward Southcentral.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . LB MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi54 min NE 9.9 G 14 37°F 37°F998.4 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi31 minNNE 610.00 miFair32°F30°F92%998.4 hPa
Soldotna, AK13 mi28 minENE 610.00 miFair32°F30°F96%999.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE3CalmNE7NW4NE4NE5NE5N5NE6NE7NE8NE11NE11NE11NE6N6N9N7NE8NE10NE9N7N6
1 day agoN21
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2 days agoE12NE15NE12NE10NE9NE8S3SE8S20
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S20S14S11SE7E4CalmSE5N3NE3N4N6NE11N9N11

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:06 AM AKST     19.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:09 AM AKST     4.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:01 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:46 PM AKST     21.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:54 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:46 PM AKST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.314.117.719.218.516.212.795.94.55.58.713.217.720.921.620.21712.57.63.10.1-0.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:28 AM AKST     19.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:23 AM AKST     5.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:07 PM AKST     21.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:53 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM AKST     -1.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.112.716.618.818.816.713.610.37.35.35.68.612.916.819.821.120.217.212.98.33.90.2-1.30.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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