Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 8:38PM Saturday March 28, 2020 12:21 PM AKDT (20:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 329 Am Akdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory tonight and Sunday...
Today..NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun night..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 281235 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 435 AM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper trough and associated surface low and weak frontal boundary over Southwest Alaska is producing snow across the western Mainland. Westerly flow across the Alaska Range has left Southcentral largely on the dry side with little snow reported except perhaps along the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains. Gusty winds on the backside of the surface low is producing some areas of blowing snow across the Kuskokwim Delta. Weak outflow conditions were observed across Southcentral with higher pressure inland and weak low pressure over the Gulf.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in generally good agreement through Sunday night.

AVIATION. PANC . Generally VFR conditions. Cold advection will increase northerly winds across the airport complex tonight and Sunday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper trough over the Mainland is producing broken cloud cover over Southcentral, but very little in the way of precipitation. The main story will be the strong outflow winds which will develop tonight as the upper trough drives south into the Gulf and sets up northerly winds aloft which is favorable for the enhancement of outflow conditions. In addition, cold interior air spills into Southcentral and increases the thermal/pressure gradients between the Gulf waters and land areas. The combined ingredients will result in the development of strong outflow wind conditions along the north Gulf coast, through gaps in the ALaska Range, and across the Matanuska Valley tonight through Sunday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A surface low in the northern Bering will make its trek inland across Southwest Alaska this morning, which will help to keep snow showers in the forecast through this afternoon. Snow will taper from the Kuskokwim Delta late morning as the front continues to move southeastward, allowing for snow showers to linger across Bristol Bay throughout the day. Light snow accumulations can be expected with this weakening system.

As the aforementioned low departs into the Gulf by late this afternoon, strong north to northwesterly onshore flow could cause some of the fallen snow to blow around, especially along coastal locations. Cold air advection will continue to move in as this low exits the region, causing a cooling trend through the weekend as a polar high build across the southwest. Temperatures on Sunday will be a lot cooler than today's high temperatures, with high temperatures barely reaching the mid-20s across the area. Expect low temperatures tonight and Sunday night to be in the single digits as colder air remains in place.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Strong north to northwesterly gale force winds over the eastern Bering will weaken through Sunday morning as a low positioned in the northern Bering moves inland. Meanwhile, the high pressure and quiet conditions over the western Bering this morning will come to an end later today as a front begins to move into the region. There is still some uncertainty with the associated low in the northern Bering in terms of strength and position. However, as this front moves eastward to the central Bering for Sunday afternoon, there is more confidence today that winds will strengthen to gale force as it approaches the Pribilofs.

Cold temperatures continuing to move into the eastern Bering today through Sunday will keep heavy freezing spray in the forecast, as well as strong winds through bays and passes of the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians . A storm system will track across the western to central Bering on Sunday. There is uncertainty in the exact track of the low center, but high confidence in widespread small craft winds with gales likely near the low center. The eastern Bering will likely see minimal impacts from this, as most model solutions track the low to the northern Bering, or even into Russia. Forecast confidence for Monday/Tuesday drops significantly, although it doesn't look like any major storm systems will affect the region.

Gulf of Alaska . There is a high confidence in gap winds along the Gulf coast on Sunday. These will diminish by Monday and the overall weather pattern looks quiet.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Friday).

Guidance is consistent with the overall synoptic pattern on Sunday with an upper level trough over the Alaska mainland while upper level ridging slowly moves eastward across the central and eastern Bering. This will result in cold temperatures across the mainland. A high confidence exists with a warming trend in temperatures across the Alaska mainland in particular Southwest Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. However, there is low confidence with respect to the magnitude of the expected warm up as there are discrepancies between guidance with how fast this ridge is moving. The GFS appears to have the fastest bias as the GEM and ECMWF show the upper trough extending into the Ahklun Mountains while the GFS has the trough only extending to the eastern AKPEN. More significant differences between guidance arise on Wednesday with respect to the amplitude of the upper ridge over Southcentral Alaska. This means that there is a low confidence in the temperature forecast as the placement of this upper ridge affects the placement of the surface ridging and thus causing major discrepancies in the temperature forecast. One area of confidence for this period is the weather is expected to remain benign across Southcentral during this time as high pressure will be over the area. Significant discrepancies continue on Thursday and Friday and thus the forecast confidence remains very low for this period at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gales 127 150 155 165 180 181 185 412-414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RMC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RMC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . SB/ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi51 min NE 14 G 18 22°F 30°F1001.8 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 63 mi51 min ENE 19 29°F 996 hPa29°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi28 minNNE 1510.00 miOvercast23°F12°F65%1001.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13N7N9NE10N6N10N8N8N5NE4NE4NE3N5NE4N4CalmN8NE11NE9NE9NE9NE12NE16N15
1 day agoS4CalmCalmNW3NW5N5N5N7N4NE5NE3CalmNE4N3CalmN5NE4NE7NE7NE9NE7NE9NE11N12
2 days agoSW12S11SW10SW13SW12SW12SW11SW4S6N3NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:52 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:32 AM AKDT     2.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM AKDT     21.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:58 PM AKDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM AKDT     19.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.22.92.95.710.415.319.22120.417.813.79.24.91.90.82.36.110.815.118.219.117.81511.4

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:42 AM AKDT     2.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:24 AM AKDT     20.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:16 PM AKDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM AKDT     18.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.53.22.74.99.614.918.720.420.218.114.39.65.11.90.314.39.313.816.818.117.815.612

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.