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PKZ740 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 255 Am Akdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue through Wed..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 231313 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 513 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

An occluded low sits immediately west of Saint Matthew Island this morning. With the loss of meaningful warm air advection into the low it is expected to gradually weaken through tonight while meandering southeastward toward Nunivak Island. South of the low and across much of the Bering, westerly small craft winds are now beginning to spread across the Eastern Aleutians. A small region of 10+ foot seas exist between Saint Matthew Island and just west of the Pribilof Islands. These too should gradually diminish over the course of the day. Shortwave ridging over Southwest Alaska is producing benign conditions, including light winds and generally dry conditions. This is true for all but the Southwest coastline where a dying front is bringing a narrow axis of short-lived, light precipitation into Bethel and Dillingham. Southcentral, meanwhile, is proving even more uneventful as high pressure lingers over the region and what remains of a weak low over the Gulf is positioned over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Areas of patchy fog and low stratus are noted from the Susitna Valley eastward into the Copper River Basin, but this should gradually erode through the remainder of the morning hours.



MODEL DISCUSSION

Good model agreement continues this morning. Only minor discrepancies are noted with the smaller mesoscale details of shortwave activity the next couple of days.



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are anticipated through at least 09Z, with the exception of this morning where there is the possibility of patchy fog developing if clouds are able to clear before 18Z.
Otherwise, weak high pressure will linger over Southcentral, resulting in light and variable winds and minimal precipitation chances at the terminal.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A fair amount of cloud cover in place across Southcentral this morning...generally along an area of convergence between an amplified ridge to the west and a trough extending from the northern Alaska/Canada border down towards the northern Gulf. This should keep areas of fog at bay, but may still see some patchy fog develop through midmorning for areas where cloud cover has cleared. At the southern end of the aforementioned trough, a weak low continues to produces scattered showers over the northern Gulf. This low will retrograde slightly back to the west today with the potential for some showers to work into the Prince William Sound and coastal areas.

For the rest of Southcentral, benign weather with seasonable temperatures will continue through the weekend and into early next week. A few showers may develop this afternoon along the convergence zone, especially over the higher terrain, but overall rain chances remain low. The next system of note will be a rapidly deepening low along the eastern Gulf coast on Monday.
Associated with this system will be several easterly waves that will rotate up along the coast bringing scattered rain showers to the northern Gulf.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

No major changes to the short term forecast as a low continues to weaken over the northern Bering and its front dissipates across the western coast of the state. Areas along the AKPEN (King Cove through Pilot Point) have the highest (50 to 75%) chances for rain today through early Sunday morning. There are lower chances (20 to 35%) for precipitation along the Southwest coast. Generally higher pressure across inland Southwest is expected to keep conditions drier through the rest of the weekend and into the start of the week.

Across the Bering and behind the front are westerly small craft winds. These winds will diminish to below small craft throughout the day today and into early Sunday morning as the low continues to weaken. By Sunday morning, an upper low and attendant surface low track into the western Bering from the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Precipitation spreads eastward throughout the day and reaches the eastern Aleutians by Sunday night, the AKPEN by Monday morning, and then precipitation exits into the North Pacific in the afternoon. Sustained winds are advertised to remain at or below small craft. High pressure spreads across the Bering for the remainder of Monday, helping to keep conditions generally drier.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The extended period is largely characterized by the building ridge over Southern Alaska promoting largely benign conditions across our region for the most part. A few shortwaves in the upper-levels appear to support some weak transient waves into Southwest Alaska through Tuesday and Wednesday. These may produce very weak and sparse showers in Southwest, however will likely allow for some scattered cloud coverage. Further west and removed from the direct influence of the ridge, the Western Bering and Aleutians will likely see a unsettled pattern as a handful of shortwaves traverse across the Bering. Model consensus regarding these waves is poor, with the GFS advertising a more resilient ridge than the other deterministic model runs, which is initially attractive because a typical fault of models is a break- down of a ridge quicker than experience suggests. There is growing consensus among model solutions that a deeper trough will approach our area from the North Pacific by the end of the week, though there is little confidence on the timing and track of this feature. By Friday morning, the EC is suggesting a broad, strong low pressure system entering the Central Bering, while the GFS solution keeps the low smaller and weaker and swings it into the Southern Gulf of Alaska.

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Kenai City Pier
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Sat -- 05:45 AM AKDT     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:56 AM AKDT     14.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:07 PM AKDT     8.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:44 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:02 PM AKDT     16.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kenai City Pier, Alaska, Tide feet

Kenai River entrance
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Sat -- 05:08 AM AKDT     4.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:54 AM AKDT     15.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 PM AKDT     9.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:00 PM AKDT     17.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kenai River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

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